1. Federal Reserve's June FOMC Hawkish Decision (Core Decline Driven)

00• Interest Rate Decision: Federal funds rate maintained at 3.5%-3.75%, unanimously passed at 12:0, in line with market expectations;

• Dot Plot Shifted Hawkishly: Midpoint of rate expectations for the end of 2026 raised from 3.4% in March to 3.8%, 9 out of 18 officials expect at least one rate hike this year, whereas market expectations were for one rate cut this year;

• Policy Shift: Completely removed the accommodative forward guidance, no longer commits to a rate path, shifted to a fully "data-dependent" model; raised annual core PCE inflation expectations to 3.3%, downgraded GDP growth to 2.2%;

• Market Pricing: After the decision, CME tools showed a 56% probability of a rate hike in September, with expectations for rate hikes this year mostly priced in by the market.

2. On-chain and Funding Events

• Liquidations Across the Network: As of 13:52, total liquidations in the cryptocurrency market reached $476 million in the past 24 hours, over 112,000 people liquidated, with long positions liquidating $352 million, accounting for over 74%, the largest single liquidation occurred on Binance-BTCUSDT, valued at $4.9661 million;

• ETF Fund Outflow: U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows for several consecutive days, with cumulative outflows exceeding $800 million in the past week, institutional allocation willingness continues to cool, with funds exiting to seek safety;

• Broad-based Coin Decline: Mainstream coins weakened across the board, altcoins dropped even deeper, with only a few MEME coins experiencing brief fluctuations, overall funds concentrated towards major coins for safety.

3. Macroeconomic Linked Events

U.S. stock indices, spot gold declined simultaneously, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields surged rapidly, global risk appetite shrank comprehensively, with cryptocurrencies as high-volatility risk assets being hit hard, the correlation with risk assets increased again.

II. Overall Impact of Events on the Market

1. Liquidity Aspect: High interest rates maintained longer, and expectations for rate hikes this year directly suppress risk asset valuations, the influx of funds into the crypto market further dries up, short-term rebounds lack support from funds;

2. Sentiment Aspect: The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 15, entering the extreme fear zone, market bottom-picking willingness is low, selling pressure is concentrated, sentiment recovery will take time;

3. Structural Differentiation: BTC's resistance to decline is significantly stronger than ETH and public chain altcoins, during the capital contraction cycle, the risk-averse properties of major coins are highlighted; small coins' liquidity is exhausted, with declines generally far exceeding the broader market;

4. Short-term Logic: In the next 1-3 trading days, market trends will be highly linked to U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index movements, any hawkish remarks might trigger a new round of declines, short-term rebounds will primarily serve to repair, with very weak sustainability.

III. Real-time Market Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

Current price around 64700 USDT, 24h decline around 2.2%

• Key Support: First support at 64000 (intraday low), strong support at 62000, 59000 (previous cycle low)

• Key Resistance: First resistance at 66500 (Bollinger Band middle line), strong resistance at 68200 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level)

• Technical Form: Daily line is in a weak repair stage after a downtrend, with prices moving below EMA30, the bearish trend has not fundamentally reversed; 4-hour level rebound momentum weakens, Bollinger Band range narrows, entering a sideways phase for direction selection, if it cannot quickly reclaim 66500, it is likely to continue exploring support levels.

Ethereum (ETH)

Current price around 1745 USDT, 24h decline around 3.3%

• Key Support: First support at 1720 (intraday low), strong support at 1680, 1600 integer level

• Key Resistance: First resistance at 1800, strong resistance at 1850 (50-day moving average)

• Technical Form: Daily bearish structure continues, prices are continuously running below the 50/200-day moving averages, the moving averages show a bearish arrangement; 4-hour MACD death cross, short-term trend is weak, under dual pressure from DeFi locking decline and lack of ETF inflows, the decline continues to be greater than BTC, the overall trend is weaker.

IV. Trading Strategies (For Technical Reference Only, Not Investment Advice)

1. Spot Strategy

• Holders: If your position is heavy, consider reducing position in batches during the rebound to the 66000-66500 range, control overall position to avoid being passively trapped; prioritize holding BTC positions and reduce weak altcoins;

• Observers: Currently in a downtrend + extreme fear stage, not advised to blindly bottom-pick, wait for clear stabilization signals (like holding above 68000, sustained increase in volume) before considering positioning, prioritize focusing on major coins.

2. Contract Strategy

• Short-term strategy primarily favors high shorts, BTC rebounds to 66000-66500 under pressure can attempt light shorts, with stop loss set above 67200, targets looking at 64000, 62500;

3. Medium to Long-term Perspective

Until the macro liquidity turning point appears, the overall judgment remains bearish, with a core focus on subsequent U.S. inflation data and the pace of interest rate hikes, before rate hike expectations are fully priced in, the market is unlikely to have a trend reversal.
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