On June 18, 2026, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision. Although it nominally maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, the hawkish signals that followed quickly triggered volatility in global risk assets.

This was the first FOMC meeting presided over by the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh since taking office. The market originally anticipated that inflation pressures would gradually ease and that expectations for interest rate cuts would warm up again, but Warsh's policy style leaned clearly towards "data-dependent, cautious easing," leading to a repricing of market expectations for the monetary policy path in the second half of the year.

(After the Fed's rate decision announcement, BTC briefly fell below the $65,000 mark - Source: AiCoin BTC K-line chart)

1. Warsh Era's "New Approach": Shorter Statements Downplay Forward Guidance

The biggest change in this meeting was not the interest rate itself, but the way of policy communication.

Under Warsh's leadership, the FOMC significantly streamlined the content of the policy statement and downplayed the traditional forward guidance, emphasizing that future decisions will rely more on economic data performance rather than providing a clear commitment to an interest rate path in advance.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve announced the establishment of several special task forces to research core issues such as the inflation framework, statistical metrics, balance sheet management, and productivity measurement.

The market generally believes that this indicates increased uncertainty in future monetary policy, requiring investors to pay more attention to real-time changes in economic data rather than relying on a fixed policy script.

2. Hawkish Dot Plot Revealed: Half of Officials Believe Rate Hikes Still Necessary This Year

More attention from the market was drawn to the dot plot released simultaneously with the statement.

From the prediction results:

This means:

A total of 9 officials expect the rate to be higher than current levels by the end of the year, accounting for 50% of all predicting officials.

Although this does not equate to an immediate rate hike, it reflects that the Federal Reserve remains highly vigilant regarding inflation risks.

The market quickly adjusted expectations, visibly cooling off on optimistic judgments regarding future rate cuts.

3. Inflation Expectations Upgraded, "Higher for Longer" Logic Continues

A significant reason supporting the hawkish stance remains inflation.

The Federal Reserve's latest economic forecast shows that core inflation expectations for the coming years have been revised upwards, higher than previously anticipated by the market.

During the press conference, Warsh stated:

The current level of inflation is still significantly above the long-term target, and the committee will continue to pay attention to risks to price stability.

This means:

The familiar "Higher for Longer" logic in the market has not ended.

In the context of energy price fluctuations, geopolitical uncertainties, and a resilient labor market, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to quickly transition to comprehensive easing in the short term.

(New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh)

4. Global Market Chain Reaction: Stocks, Bonds, Gold, and Crypto Assets All Under Pressure

After the announcement, global markets quickly entered a Risk-Off mode.

Traditional Markets

• The US dollar index strengthened rapidly
• US Treasury yields rose
• Gold prices fell back briefly
• All three major US stock indices closed lower

Risk appetite noticeably declined.

Crypto Markets

BTC weakened concurrently.

According to AiCoin market data:

• BTC dropped to a low of around $63,917
• Short term fell below the $65,000 mark
• Mainstream altcoins generally followed suit

Meanwhile, the derivatives market showed clear de-leveraging.
A large number of high-leverage long positions were passively liquidated, leading to a quick release of market risk.

(Image source - AiCoin multi-window K-line chart)

5. Data Perspective: Under Panic, Large Holders Still Accumulate

Although the market price reflects short-term pain, on-chain data reveals that the underlying defensive logic of leading market funds has not collapsed; instead, it demonstrates very clear characteristics of "chip handover and whale accumulation."

• Corporate Giants Firmly Build a Bottom: The publicly traded company MicroStrategy has again demonstrated "black hole-level" purchasing power, spending an additional $100 million to acquire 1,587 BTC between June 8 and 14, bringing its total holdings to an astounding 846,842 BTC. This has established a strong corporate financial demand base in the current range of $64,000 to $65,000.
• ETF Outflows Have Bottomed: Previously experiencing weeks of continuous outflows, Bitcoin ETFs have recently broken the streak, with BlackRock's IBIT leading a re-entry.
• Bitfinex Long Positions Exceed 90,000 BTC: Bitfinex BTC long holdings have risen to 90,641 BTC, approaching historical highs.

(Image source - AiCoin ETF net inflow data)

From the current market structure, the Federal Reserve's hawkish statements have indeed impacted market optimism regarding rapid rate cuts.

For investors, key areas to monitor in the future include:

• Whether BTC can regain a stable footing above $65,000
• Whether ETF capital inflows continue to improve
• Whether open interest and funding rates recover
• Whether on-chain whales continue to accumulate

In an environment of frequent macro events and increased market volatility, the importance of real-time data is continuously rising.

AiCoin open data API provides:

✅ Real-time K-line market data
✅ Technical indicator data
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✅ On-chain irregularity tracking
✅ Large transaction monitoring
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Supporting various scenarios such as quantitative trading, strategy research, media updates, data platform, and trading system development, helping users discover market opportunities faster:

https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/opendata

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