On the morning of June 16, the encrypted market welcomed a wave of [US-Iran reconciliation] driven gains, with ETH leading the charge at +4.6%, surging from a low of 1709.66 to 1793.02; Bitcoin rebounded from a low of 69353 USD on June 6, with a price of 66040 USD at the time of writing, reaching a 24-hour high of 67292 USD. SOL and XRP followed suit, significantly improving the overall market sentiment.

The core trigger for this rebound is a significant geopolitical turning point. On June 15, the United States and Iran reached a framework for a peace agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen, causing global oil supply pressures to plummet, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices and a marked recovery in Wall Street's risk appetite.

This week also marks (Super Central Bank Week), with the FOMC meeting scheduled for June 16-17. This will be the first meeting of new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at 3.5%-3.75. Additionally, it is expected that the Bank of Japan will raise rates to 1% this week, and the formal signing of the US-Iran peace agreement is scheduled for June 19 (Sunday). With multiple events overlapping, the market is pricing in the future direction.

Even though the market has fully recovered, the market sentiment has not warmed up. Today's fear and greed index stands at 23 (extreme fear), up from 20 yesterday, showing a slight recovery but still deeply mired in the panic zone. Historically, extreme fear is often the starting point for discussions about bottom-buying, but whether a bottom can be confirmed remains to be observed following the market's reaction to the FOMC at 2 AM on the 18th.

Four-hour chart of Bitcoin

Currently, from the four-hour perspective, Bitcoin has reclaimed some territory after rebounding from a low of 59087. The price now hovers around 66100, just above the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level of 64612, but still some distance from the critical resistance at 68030, which corresponds to the 38.2% level. Overall, this rebound is now in the latter stage, and a directional choice may need to be faced in the short term.

MACD analysis: The MACD remains in a golden cross state, with DIFF and DEA both above the zero axis, but the red energy bars are beginning to shrink. This indicates that the momentum of the previous rebound is still there, but the upward momentum is weakening, and the bulls are somewhat lacking in strength for the push. If the red bars continue to decrease, leading to a death cross, then the short term will enter an adjustment period.

KDJ analysis: The KDJ three lines previously surged into the overbought zone, and now the J value has quickly dropped to around 35. This indicates that short-term profit-taking is occurring, and the market needs to cool off. However, the K line and D line are still above 50, so as long as there is no significant death cross divergence downwards, this is considered a normal correction in the upward process.

BOLL analysis: The Bollinger Bands are overall opening upward, with the middle track having risen to around 65000. The price is still firmly standing above the middle track, indicating that the rebound trend has not broken. However, the price has consecutively attempted to break through the upper track without effective breakthroughs, so in the short term, it may need to retest the middle track to confirm support. If it can stabilize upon retesting 65000, then there might still be opportunities to continue pushing against resistance.

Fibonacci analysis: The high point of this wave is 82799, and the low point is 59087. Key positions include: the 23.6% retracement level at 64612, the 38.2% retracement level at 68030, the 50% retracement level at 70993, and the 61.8% retracement level at 73555. The price has now stabilized at the 23.6% level, and the rebound structure is relatively complete. The next major test will be the 68030 line. If it can break through the 68000 area with volume, then the rebound target will point towards the vicinity of 71000. If it cannot break above 68000 consistently, the market will likely retest 64600 or even 63000 for support.

Future market outlook: Xinghe believes that Bitcoin is currently still in the rebound cycle after the low of 59087, with the MACD maintaining a golden cross, and BOLL's middle track continuing to rise, indicating that the bullish structure has not been broken. However, KDJ has already fallen from the overbought zone, coupled with the fact that the vicinity of 68000 is a strong resistance area at Fibonacci 38.2%, the risk of chasing up short-term is starting to grow.

Key focus: Upside resistance includes short-term pressure around 66800, critical resistance at 68030, and strong resistance at 71000. Downside support includes around 65000, Fibonacci support at 64612, and strong support at 63000.

Conclusion: I believe that the current market is in the repair rebound phase after a decline, and it is likely to oscillate and accumulate momentum in the range of 65000 to 68000 in the short term. As long as 64612 does not break, there is still a chance for the bulls to push towards 68000; if 68000 is effectively broken, then there will be hope to open up an upward space towards 70000 to 71000. Conversely, if it falls below 64600, caution should be exercised regarding a retracement to around 63000 for support.

Xinghe focuses on analyzing the crypto market and spot and contract trading, respecting the market and making rational decisions, consistently adhering to rigorous, objective, and compliant professional standards, committed to creating long-term value through professional capabilities! Video account S687820

(Text / Xinghe Huicai) 2026-06-16 21:10

This is a declaration: online publication has a delay, and the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!

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