Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Golem (@web 3_golem)

Last Friday, SpaceX closed its first day of trading at $160.95, with a market capitalization of $2.1 trillion. Although SpaceX still created the largest IPO in U.S. stock market history, this result did not meet all expectations compared to the pre-listing market sentiment. Some research institutions, such as CFRA, directly assigned SPCX a "sell" rating, indicating that Musk's "Mars story" received applause without ticket sales. (Related reading: Written after SpaceX's debut: Is a $2.1 trillion market cap still worth chasing?)

Facing market concerns, SPCX opened with a surge on Monday, surprising everyone. According to Gate’s U.S. stock market data, SPCX rose continuously after opening, closing at $192.5, with an increase of 19.6%. The closing price was also the highest price of the day, and the market capitalization rose to $2.519 trillion, making SpaceX the 8th largest company globally by market value. However, market sentiment has not subsided; according to Hyperliquid data, SPCX's pre-market price has risen above $214, indicating that SPCX is likely to continue its upward trajectory after the U.S. stock market opens on Tuesday, surpassing Amazon, which ranks 7th.

The U.S. and Iran sign a memorandum of understanding, while enthusiasm for SpaceX among retail investors remains strong

From a macro perspective, the memorandum of understanding reached between the U.S. and Iran this week provides significant positive news for the U.S. stock market. The market generally expects that, against the backdrop of stabilizing geopolitical situations, global stock markets may usher in a new wave of increases, with SpaceX being one of the beneficiaries.

On June 15, Trump announced an agreement with Iran that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. Unlike previous unilateral verbal confrontations, this agreement was acknowledged by Iran. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Garibabadi stated on the same day that the text of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has been finalized and will be officially signed in Switzerland on Friday (June 19).

The completion of the memorandum was confirmed again by the Iranian president, and U.S. Vice President Vance stated that the agreement reached between the U.S. and Iran was electronically completed over the weekend, indicating that the terms of the agreement have taken effect and the possibility of either side tearing up the agreement is low. After the news spread, the overall U.S. stock market opened higher, with the Dow closing up 0.92%, the S&P 500 up 1.65%, and the Nasdaq up 3.07%.

Morgan Stanley believes that the long-term agreement between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with falling oil prices, will relieve inflationary pressures. The U.S. stock market is transitioning from a "one-stock rally" to a healthier, broad-based advance. The momentum of the U.S. stock market's increase may no longer be confined to the technology sector, but gradually spread to a wider range of cyclical industries.

From a market sentiment perspective, SpaceX remains the most sought-after stock by retail investors. According to Vanda Track data, on June 16 (U.S. local time), retail investors achieved a net buy of about $93.8 million in a single day, accounting for about 73% of the total net inflow of retail investors in all U.S. stocks that day. This means that nearly every $4 of incremental retail investment flowing into the U.S. stock market has seen about $3 directed to SpaceX.

With such strong market demand for SPCX, SpaceX underwriters exercised their overallotment option (green shoe mechanism) to purchase an additional 8.333 million shares, increasing the total number of IPO shares issued to 638,888,888 Class A common shares, and increasing the total fundraising scale to $85.7 billion. This scale exceeds almost all previously recorded overallotment arrangements for tech company IPOs.

However, despite this, reports indicate that in the subscription for SpaceX’s IPO, most qualified retail investors in the U.S. received only about one share. Therefore, in the face of extreme demand stemming from a low float, the concentrated buying from retail investors can significantly propel the stock price upward.

What is the outlook for SPCX?

zerohedge: With options listing, stock price is expected to be pushed to $400

The influential financial media outlet zerohedge reported on June 16 that once SPCX options commence trading, its stock price may rise to $400 due to the gamma squeeze effect, exceeding Nvidia.

Gamma squeeze is essentially a price rise spiral triggered by options market makers being forced to buy stocks as prices rise. SpaceX has a very low float (4.2%), and retail buying enthusiasm is extremely high. Retail investors who have not yet allocated SPCX common stock may turn to purchase relatively cheaper call options. If a large amount of capital rushes to buy call options, market makers will have to continue buying SPCX stock to hedge risks, thus driving stock prices higher and creating a positive feedback loop.

The explosive growth of GameStop (GME) in 2021 is also one of the most classic examples of this effect.

Oppenheimer: SPCX will continue to outperform the market

On June 15, before the opening of the U.S. stock market, analyst Timothy Horan of investment bank Oppenheimer rated SpaceX for the first time, giving it an “outperform” rating and setting a short-term target price of $190. By the following Monday's opening, SPCX ultimately closed at $192.5, aligning well with Oppenheimer's target price.

Timothy Horan is a 4.70-star analyst at Oppenheimer, focusing primarily on technology, communication, and telecommunications sectors. According to Tipranks data, his prediction success rate is 58.82%. He believes that SpaceX is “the only fully vertically integrated AI company,” controlling capital, data, large models, hardware, manufacturing, and engineering talent, and should not be merely viewed as a traditional aerospace company.

Peter H. Diamandis: Previously idle funds were used to buy Bitcoin, now invested in SpaceX

On June 14, famous entrepreneur, XPRIZE founder, and early SpaceX investor Peter H. Diamandis wrote that SpaceX is “the railway in orbit,” which will initiate humanity's multi-planetary civilization, creating immense wealth similar to how 19th-century railroads opened up the American West. He predicts that within the next year, SpaceX will merge with Tesla, becoming the first $100 trillion company.

He also stated that over the past decade, whenever he released funds from other trades, he would invest those funds in Bitcoin, but now he invests in SpaceX whenever he has idle funds. Although he expects the stock price to drop when locked shareholders can sell shares, he indicated that his investment in SpaceX is not aimed at pursuing quarterly stock price increases, but rather for promoting the development of extraterrestrial economies.

Brad Gerstner: SpaceX is a must-buy asset for institutional investors

On June 16, renowned Silicon Valley investor Brad Gerstner described SpaceX as a must-buy asset for institutional investors in the latest episode of the BG2 podcast, reasoning that the company is positioned at the intersection of space economy and AI computing power expansion.

Gerstner stated that those bearish on SpaceX focus on last year's revenue and investment banks' predictions of substantial revenue growth over the next three years, questioning the ability of companies to achieve several-fold expansion within three to four years. However, he believes that if investors trust the direction of AGI's development, they must accept the premise that the scale of computing power needed for global construction will far exceed current market expectations. Combining this judgment with SpaceX's core business, it is difficult to find another company or entrepreneur able to offer a more direct bet on the future.

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