Recently, due to the US-Iran negotiations, the blockade status of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted, Bitcoin has broken the fluctuation range and surged directly above 67,000. Ethereum retreated after a failed sprint to 1,850. The favorable factors have basically landed, and the influence may gradually weaken. My personal view is that one should not blindly chase the trend, it is better to treat the upper resistance as a high short opportunity! The specific thinking is as follows:

This round of price increase lacks active buying support, and more is due to short sellers closing their positions after large profits in the early stages, rather than systemic bottom-fishing from incremental funds. The entire positive impact from the US-Iran negotiations has been concentrated and digested from the weekend to Monday. If there is no confirmation of an agreement or substantial progress in shipping recovery, the rebound momentum will quickly diminish.

The interest rate hike in Japan and the hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve are the most core and noteworthy macro variables this week. On June 16, a 25 basis point hike was announced. Everyone should know what Japan's interest rate hike means; it has a significant impact on Bitcoin prices! The market has abandoned the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, pushing the first cut to 2027, so one cannot hold expectations for a market reversal. The recent surge is at most a one-time benefit from the cooling of geopolitical risks and technical oversold repair! Therefore, the view remains unchanged, focusing on light positions and high shorts!

For those holding short positions around 66,000-68,500 and 1,740-1,830, it is estimated that you are quite nervous. If you have held on, just continue to hold, and even if you are stuck, you should be able to break even soon. If your position is heavy, it is advisable to adjust your holdings timely. Recently, it is still advised to participate with light positions at this unstable moment and in line with the halving cycle timing!

For Bitcoin, pay attention to the upper resistance around 66,800-68,500, and the lower support to focus on 66,000 and 65,000-63,700-62,222-60,000 levels,

Note that above short positions must be participated in lightly, as there may be deviations in the levels: Bitcoin: ±100 points Ethereum: The above views are for reference only, and profits and losses are at your own risk!

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