Recently, the US-Iran talks have led to the lifting of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin has broken through the oscillation range, rising directly above 67000. After Ethereum's failed sprint to 1850, it has retreated. The positive sentiment has largely settled, and its impact may gradually weaken. My personal view is not to blindly chase for more; it is better to treat the upper resistance with caution! The specific thoughts are as follows:

The current rise lacks active buying support, primarily due to short sellers concentrating on closing positions after significant profits in the earlier phase, rather than a systematic bottom-picking layout with incremental funds. All the good news from the US-Iran talks has been digested over the weekend to Monday. If there is no confirmation of an agreement or substantial progress in shipping recovery subsequently, the rebound momentum will quickly diminish.

The interest rate hike in Japan and the Fed's hawkish comments are the most crucial macro variables to focus on this week. The announcement of a 25 basis point hike on June 16 should let everyone know what it means for Japan's interest rate hike and its significant impact on Bitcoin's price! The market has abandoned the expectation of the Fed cutting rates in 2026, pushing the first rate cut to 2027. Therefore, one should not hold onto expectations of a reversal; the recent surge is at best a one-time benefit from the cooling of geopolitical risks and a technical correction of overselling! Hence, my view remains the same: prioritize light positions and short trades!

Regarding the shorts near 66000-68500 and 1740-1830, those who have held might have been quite anxious; if you have persisted, just continue holding. Even if you're trapped, it should be resolved quickly; if your position is heavy, timely adjustments are advised. Recently, I've reiterated that in the current unstable situation and at the halfway cycle timing, one should participate with light positions!

For Ethereum, pay attention to the upper resistance near 1820-1850-1905 and lower support around 1740-1715-1640-1580-1515.

Note

For the above shorts, remember to participate with light positions; there may be discrepancies: Bitcoin: ±100 points, Ethereum: ±5 points. The above views are for reference only; profit and loss are at your own risk!

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