The US-Iran ceasefire agreement, which has been in the works for a month or two, has finally been finalized, officially signed on June 20 in Switzerland. The constantly hyped statements from Trump have also come to an end. Bitcoin, benefiting from this wave of geopolitical good news, has warmed up accordingly, rebounding from the 60,000 mark to nearly 67,300, currently fluctuating within the 66,500 range, with an overall increase of over 4% in 24 hours, and the total rebound from the low has exceeded 10%.

Many people see the rebound and start to get anxious, thinking that institutions are returning and the bull market is restarting, rushing to follow the trend and buy. But I must say plainly that this rebound beyond 60,000 is essentially a typical dead cat bounce, and not a trend reversal at all.

First, it is important to recognize that this rise is completely driven by emotion, not by real funds entering the market. From the trading volume on the market, it is apparent that the rebound starting from 59,000 to 60,000 has been characterized by small upward candles lifting the price slightly, with trading volume only weakly increasing. Compared to the high-volume trading in May, the difference is enormous. The daily chart has shown no strong volume increase patterns, simply put, the bulls are eager but powerless, with no incremental funds supporting the surge. When prices are rising but the volume does not keep up, this is a classic emotional arbitrage rebound and not a trend led by institutions.

The flow of funds further confirms this point; Bitcoin ETFs have been maintaining a net outflow for five consecutive weeks, with last week’s total net outflow exceeding 316 million dollars, and just from BlackRock's IBIT, there was an outflow of 443 million. The critical point is that during the process of the price rebounding from 61,000 to above 66,000, institutional funds have not only failed to return but have instead continued to reduce positions and sell off during the rebound. There was only a slight fund inflow on a single day, which is negligible and cannot change the ongoing major trend of outflow. It is enough to confirm that this round of rebound has no institutional participation; it is entirely speculative retail emotion driven by geopolitical good news, compounded by the short sellers covering their positions leading to a false rise.

The core catalyst for this market movement is the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, with the electronic version of the memorandum now finalized and the official signing ceremony set for June 20. However, the market has already fully digested all the positive news in advance, characteristic of the typical phase of buying based on expectations, and once the formal agreement is in place, there is a high probability of experiencing a profit-taking correction turning into a negative impact. Furthermore, the US has not unblocked any of Iran's assets, and this potential positive is delayed in materializing, which also indicates that the support for this rise is extremely weak and lacks the logic for sustained long-term increases.

From a technical perspective, one can accurately predict the limit of this rebound's peak. Combining the Fibonacci retracement structure from the high point of 84,000, the core strong resistance and maximum gravitational point for this rebound is locked in at around 68,363, with the current price at 66,500 and the remaining upward potential being only about 2.7%, essentially lacking any speculative value. The heavier resistance at the 50-day moving average at 71,121 is even harder to break through, while the previous support level of 64,435 has been successfully reclaimed and turned into short-term support.

The short-term market is currently testing the 20-day moving average at 66,686, which serves as the dividing line for bulls and bears. The upper 50-day moving average at 70,700 presents heavy resistance. Overall, the market is still below all major moving averages, and the weekly upward trend has long since broken. The current rebound is merely a technical retracement confirmation after a significant drop, simply put, a brief pause in the downtrend, definitely not a bottoming reversal.

Considering the market rhythm, I have outlined three probabilities for the rebound pattern. The baseline scenario has the highest probability: consolidating above the short-term moving averages without any unexpected negative news, the rebound target will hover around 68,363. The weaker scenario would be pressured by the 20-day moving average, stopping and reverting around 67,000-67,500; whereas the probability of breaking above 69,500 to start a strong market is very low, only around 15%, requiring sustained volume increase combined with ETF fund inflow, which can basically be ruled out. In simple terms, the high point range for this rebound is locked at 67,500-68,800; reaching this level presents an excellent shorting opportunity, without exception.

Public Account: Big Bull Market Commentary

This article is solely for personal market review and discussion of market insights. All levels and trend predictions are for reference only and do not constitute any investment or trading advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and leveraged trading carries significant risks. Please operate rationally based on your own risk tolerance, and all trading gains and losses are your own responsibility.

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