In the early morning, the United States and Iran reached a peace agreement. Trump stated that he approved free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and authorized the immediate lifting of the U.S. Navy's blockade on Iran. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister also confirmed that the text of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has been finalized and will be formally signed this Friday in Switzerland. The market welcomed this news with cheers, Bitcoin surged to around 66,000, and Ethereum rose to near 1,730. So, can the bullish trend continue in the future?

Today's Opinion: A rebound is not a reversal; the strategy of holding light positions for short selling remains unchanged. The small-scale RSI for Bitcoin has entered the severely overbought zone, and the KDJ has begun to turn downward and diverge, showing signs of a potential death cross. The Jiangfeng Capital trend-following indicator currently shows it is close to the resistance area (as shown in the image below), where a light position short can be attempted! Please refer to specific points:

For Ethereum, pay attention to resistance around 1,740, as well as 1,777 and 1,830. It might be advisable to short at the current price of 1,718 with a light position. Support to watch is around 1,666–1,620–1,580 and near 1,500, with the ultimate target looking at 1,440–1,120 (in the spot range).

This price increase driven by news, I personally do not have high hopes for. I believe that after the subsequent rebound, it will continue to pull back. There may be continued speculation in the coming days, but I think the real bottom-building time will be around the end of the third quarter. At that time, it would be more prudent to set up long positions!

Note that there may be deviations in all the entry and exit points mentioned above; Bitcoin ±100 points, Ethereum ±5 points, for reference only, profits and losses are at your own risk! Remember to participate with light positions at this critical moment!

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