After Bitcoin surged to 64,500 dollars yesterday, it entered a high-level sideways consolidation, and the current price hovers around 64,400. The resistance zone between 64,000 and 65,000 has been repeatedly validated by the market, with a large number of sell orders piled up in the order book, making the pressure to break upward very significant.

Currently, the bears have temporarily chosen to remain inactive, and trading volume has shrunk to a very low level. Everyone is observing two major events: one is whether the U.S. and Iran can successfully sign related agreements this week, and the other is the upcoming Bank of Japan interest rate decision. The bulls are taking advantage of the market's wait-and-see period to slowly raise prices and gradually pull the market to just below the current resistance level.

Although this round of rebound has raised the low points of the market, making the short-term trend look a bit more moderate, for the bulls to truly open up upward space, they must firmly stand above 65,000. Now there is another detail that needs vigilance; during the process of weakening market conditions, the funding rate still maintains a positive outlook, indicating that leveraged positions in the market are continually increasing, while the momentum for price increases is getting weaker. This divergence in the market signals often harbors considerable risks of a pullback. If the current resistance is not broken, the support area of 60,000-59,000 will face another test. Even if there is a lucky breakthrough, the next dense liquidity threshold will only appear around 74,000. Additionally, looking at trading volume, this wave of price increase has not shown any significant volume increase throughout; it remains a typical bear structure characterized by increasing volume during declines and decreasing volume during rebounds. The buying strength is far from matching the selling force. I still maintain my previous judgment that 64,500-65,000 is the top range of this rebound, with a probability of around 80%.

Recently, the discrepancies in geopolitical news have also directly influenced short-term sentiment. Trump previously publicly stated that the agreement would be finalized today, and many sources predicted that the negotiations would be concluded within 24 hours. However, the Iranian officials directly denied the claim of today's signing and only revealed that negotiations would continue to advance in the coming days. There are significant differences in both parties' demands: Iran needs the U.S. to unfreeze 24 billion in assets and maintain control over the Strait, while the U.S. wants to limit Iran's access to nuclear-related materials. Not even a temporary ceasefire consensus has been fully finalized. The likelihood of a smooth signing today has significantly decreased. The most probable outcome is just a temporary extension of the ceasefire period, followed by continued protracted negotiations. Even if the agreement does eventually materialize, it is highly likely to only spur a short-term spike in the coin price to around 65,000. The news hitting will be seen as benefiting, and following the spike, profit-taking selling pressure is likely to emerge. At that point, it would be more appropriate to layout short positions rather than blindly chase the rise.

Compared to the uncertain geopolitical news, the impending interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is a difficult-to-avoid certainty that poses negative pressure. The interest rate decision will be announced from tomorrow to the day after, with the market generally expecting a 25 basis point increase, bringing the rate directly to 1%, a nearly thirty-year high. From past market performances, every round of Japanese interest rate hikes has led to significant sell-offs in risk assets, with Bitcoin historically experiencing single drops of over 20%. Regardless of the outcome of the U.S.-Iran negotiations, the downward pressure brought by tightening liquidity will not disappear, leaving the market with only a day or two left to game the situation.

Considering the current market, the position at 64,400 is only suitable for observation. Do not think of entering to chase upward; it's located in a strong resistance zone, and the risk-reward ratio of chasing the rise is simply too low. Those holding high-position short positions can continue to hold and wait. If the price is spurred to rise to the 65,000 to 66,000 range due to news and shows weakness, it would be an excellent opportunity to add short positions. After the Bank of Japan interest rate news is released, once the price effectively breaks below 62,500, it can be added accordingly. If the 60,000 support level is breached, the position should be increased appropriately to align with the market direction. Subsequent targets should initially look at the 60,000 level, then the 57,000-58,000 range. The ultimate bottom position for this adjustment is set at 42,000-45,000. Remember to keep the total position controlled within 25%, and utilize low leverage for proper risk management.

Everyone must rationally view this geopolitical positive news. Even if a ceasefire agreement is achieved in the short term, it is only a temporary truce lasting sixty days and does not signify a complete resolution of regional conflicts. The possibility of renewed outbreak risks still exists. Do not be misled by the short-term impulse market; 64,500 has never been the bottom of this round of decline, and the 60,000 barrier also cannot withstand continued selling pressure. This round of decline has only just reached the midway point. Patience is key in waiting for macroeconomic negative news to unfold, and simply follow the trend in operations.

Public Account: Big Bull Says Market

The above content is solely personal market observation and market thought exchange and does not constitute any investment or trading advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance, with all trading gains and losses borne by individuals.

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