The current market is in the final stage of this round of the Bitcoin bear market. The A-B-C corrective structure proposed earlier in early 2026 is progressing as expected: Wave A fell to the range of $60,000–69,000, Wave B rebounded to the range of $80,000–90,000, peaking around $83,000, and currently, the market has entered the C wave adjustment phase.
From the perspective of sentiment indicators, the Fear and Greed Index has fallen to historical low levels, showing high similarity with the structural bottom of the bear market in 2022. Although we are currently closer to a "tradeable bottom," cycle indicators have not yet issued a final reversal signal. During this process, the market's focus is shifting from short-term fluctuations to conditions for forming a bottom, as well as macro catalysts that may trigger the next bullish market.
The bear market enters its final stage: $50,000–55,000 may become a key area
From a technical structure perspective, the top formation in 2025 is very similar to the heights of 2021. Both cycles experienced rapid highs, breaking below the 21-week moving average, followed by a stage-based rebound and then a weakening again. Historical experience shows that a true bottom is often accompanied by a decrease in trading volume and a narrowing trading range, rather than a quick reversal.
Currently, the Fear and Greed Index is at historical lows, the stochastic indicator has entered deep oversold territory, and Bitcoin prices are approaching two standard deviation areas below the weekly moving average, with approximately $61,576 potentially providing temporary support. According to the cycle analysis framework, the final market bottom has not yet been reached.
Combining with Elliott Wave Theory, since the start of the bear market in October 2025, Bitcoin has entered a typical A-B-C corrective structure. Following the Wave B rebound, which ended in mid-May at $83,000, the current Wave C decline is unfolding, with target areas possibly pointing to around $50,000, and the low is expected to occur around the FIFA World Cup (from June 11 to July 19, 2026). Overall, the $50,000–55,000 range may become the core bottom area of this round of the bear market.
Peak inflation may become an important catalyst for the next bull market
From a macro perspective, the current market environment has certain similarities with 2022, where inflation remains a major factor suppressing the performance of risk assets. In the last cycle, the peak of inflation became a significant turning point for the market, and a similar macro path may reappear in this cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin has achieved a price of about $54,591, which is considered an important reference for judging the market's entry into an undervalued range. Historical experience shows that while prices may briefly dip below this level, they typically do not stay below it for long. Meanwhile, the cycle indicators have not yet released a bottom confirmation signal, and the actual low may still need 1 to 3 months for confirmation.
If the price completes bottoming and re-establishes above the 21-week moving average, and the monthly cycle indicators show a positive reversal, it is expected to confirm the initiation of a new upward cycle. Until then, the market will remain in the bottom building phase.
Overall, this round of the bear market is already nearing its end. The A-B-C corrective structure, cycle indicators, and macro background all point in the same direction: the $50,000–55,000 range likely corresponds to the valuation area of this bear market, while the realized price of $54,591 represents an important long-term reference level. Although the specific timing of the low still depends on inflation trends and the confirmation of cycle indicators, historical experience indicates that a true bottom often does not manifest as an obvious buying opportunity. As inflationary pressures gradually ease and cycle signals improve, the next bull market is likely to begin near the $50,000–55,000 range.
The above opinions are partly derived from BIT on Target, Contact us for the complete report of BIT on Target.
Disclaimer: The market has risks; investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading digital assets may involve great risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
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