Trump's "Changing Face" Helps Market Breakthrough, BTC Hits 65000, ETH Expected to Follow Upward

Time: June 12, 2026, 08:40

Market View Update: From Volatility to Bullish

In yesterday's analysis, we believed the market leaned towards low-level volatility and consolidation, gradually completing a W-bottom pattern after solidifying the bottom structure.

However, after the market performance last night, I decided to adjust my view.

Today, I no longer see volatility, but instead turn bullish.

The reason is simple—Trump has once again become the biggest variable in the market.

Yesterday, Trump first released aggressive news, causing the market to worry about escalating situations; but then he stated that the relevant plans were not final, showing a clear reversal of attitude.

However, it is worth noting that:

In the face of negative news, the market did not show an obvious decline.

This is often more noteworthy than the rise itself.

When the market does not fall in the face of bad news, it often means that capital is actively absorbing the chips.

⸻

Bitcoin Breaks Through Volatility Range, 62600 Becomes Support

From the trend, BTC has successfully broken through the previously fluctuating range.

The level that had been contested repeatedly:

62600

has already transformed from a resistance level to a support level.

Yesterday, under the influence of Trump's related news, the market still did not break below 62600, indicating that buying strength at this position still exists.

The focus that the market needs to pay attention to next is only one:

Can it break through the 63500-63600 area?

If successful:

First target:

64500

Second target:

65000

Therefore, the current trading idea is quite clear:

Near 63500, it is still possible to consider going long.

The target continues to look at the 64500-65000 area.

⸻

Daily Structure: W-Bottom Pattern is Being Realized

From the daily level, the market structure also supports this judgment.

The overall trend can be understood as:

• First round of probing the bottom

• Rebound confirmation

• Three consecutive dark candles second retest

• Completion of bottom confirmation

• Beginning to break upwards

The typical W-bottom structure has gradually taken shape.

Meanwhile:

MA5 moving average has already started to clearly turn upwards.

The diminishing bullish momentum caused by continuous adjustments is gradually coming to an end.

The market is re-entering a new upward cycle.

Therefore, the probability of a bullish daily close today is significantly higher than a bearish one.

In the short term, continue to pay attention to the 64500-65000 area.

⸻

ETH Trend Strengthens in Synchronization, but More Controlled Rhythm

The overall logic of Ethereum aligns with Bitcoin.

It has also completed bottom confirmation.

Recently, two consecutive candlesticks have left long lower shadows, indicating strong buying support below.

If many friends missed the boat yesterday, they have essentially missed the first wave of the kickoff.

Ether rose from:

1623

to a maximum of:

1693

with a significant increase.

⸻

ETH Today's Focus Position

Current reference idea:

Long at 1673

First target:

1693

Second target:

1720

That is:

1673 → 1693 → 1720

Looking upwards gradually.

⸻

4-Hour Level: 1690 is Still Key Resistance

From the 4-hour cycle observation:

ETH still appears slightly weaker compared to BTC.

If I had to describe the current trend, I think the most fitting word is:

Restrained.

It can be seen that ETH has never shown a strong breakthrough like BTC.

There is still clear resistance around 1690.

However, once BTC continues its push towards 64500 or even 65000,

ETH is expected to use market sentiment for a rally.

Therefore:

1690 is critical.

1720 is the next target.

⸻

The Influence of U.S. Stocks on BTC is Weakening

A very noticeable phenomenon recently is:

The impact of a U.S. stock decline on BTC is gradually weakening.

You can recall:

• June 4

• June 10

The market performance around those dates.

Previously, BTC often had a high correlation with U.S. stocks.

But in recent instances, it can be observed that:

Even if U.S. stocks pull back,

BTC has not experienced a synchronous major decline.

This indicates that the market is forming an independent pricing logic.

For the subsequent market trends, this is a very positive signal.

⸻

Medium to Long-Term View Remains Unchanged: After the Rebound, Be Cautious of a Second Bottom Test

Although I am bullish in the short term,

the medium to long-term view has not changed temporarily.

The current market is more like:

A technical rebound within a downtrend.

The rebound target is approximately located at:

65000-66000

or even:

66500-67000

nearby.

This corresponds to a previous important area of concentrated positions.

If the rebound completes in the future,

we do not rule out the possibility of another phase correction.

The long-term target still focuses on:

Around 52000

Of course, this belongs to the medium to long-term logic.

Weibo and daily analysis focus more on short-term trading opportunities.

A more comprehensive medium to long-term analysis will be explained in detail in the video content.

⸻

Gold: Continue Holding Short Positions

Now let's look at gold.

After midnight last night, gold experienced a rapid rise.

We positioned short around:

4230

Targeting:

4200

As of now, we have gained nearly 20 points in profit.

⸻

Gold Medium to Long-Term Targets

If viewed from a trend trading perspective:

First target:

4180

Second target:

4088

Further, there is even a chance to see:

4080-4050 area

Currently, I lean towards believing that:

This round of rising belongs to a technical rebound followed by a lure for more.

The overall trend still leans bearish.

Therefore, from a strategy perspective:

• Consider gradually reducing positions to lock in profits;

• Do not recommend aggressively increasing positions;

• Wait for new signals after key support levels.

⸻

Today's Summary

BTC

• Support: 62600

• Key Breakthrough: 63500-63600

• Target: 64500-65000

ETH

• Reference Position: 1673

• First Target: 1693

• Second Target: 1720

Gold

• First Target: 4180

• Medium to Long-Term Target: 4080-4050

Overall, the market has begun to break away from the previous volatility structure.

The disturbance caused by Trump's news did not crash the market; instead, it became a catalyst for the bulls' breakthrough.

For today's market, we continue to maintain a bullish stance, focusing on whether BTC can stabilize above 63500 and push towards 65000.

Specific trades will still be based on real-time conditions, and we will adjust dynamically according to market changes and position circumstances.

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