Bitcoin weakened during a round of pullback in early June, as sentiment quickly shifted from euphoric profits to a defensive posture. It was during the period from June 1 to 7, when most chose to sit on the sidelines or even reduce their positions, that two institutions went against the trend: Strategy Inc. bought 1,550 Bitcoins at an average price of about $65,332, investing approximately $101.3 million; at the same time, Strive also increased its holdings by 32 Bitcoins at an average price of about $63,911, raising its total holdings to 19,032. This cold, hard tally of purchases was disclosed around June 8, coinciding with a subtle resonance of a key indicator on the blockchain — the MVRV Z-Score dropped to about 0.24, which, according to this single data source, is close to a low range typically seen in the later stages of bear markets and near price bottoms. The MVRV Z-Score depicts the overall valuation deviation by comparing market value with realized value. In the past, it has often accompanied extreme lows with narratives of "blood in the streets" at bottoms, though not every instance has been perfectly timed. This time, however, together with the institutional increase in positions against the trend, it inevitably raises a sharp question: Are a few long-term players quietly positioning themselves by exploiting panic and undervaluation, or have they prematurely picked up chips that have yet to be fully offloaded in an ongoing decline?

Institutions increase positions against the trend during panic pullback

During the price decline and when the MVRV Z-Score was pressed down to about 0.24, between June 1 and 7, Strategy Inc. provided its answer: during that week, it purchased 1,550 Bitcoins at an average price of about $65,332, totaling approximately $101.3 million. For a publicly-listed company that already holds a significant amount of Bitcoin, this isn't merely a symbolic gesture, but a substantial increase that could rewrite their book costs. In a phase of cautious sentiment during the pullback, they have effectively raised their exposure by betting nine figures on the notion that "current prices are undervalued," making it no surprise that their continued purchases have been interpreted by many as a clear long-term bullish signal.

In contrast, Strive followed an entirely different rhythm: also within June 1 to 7, it only increased its holdings by 32 Bitcoins at an average price of about $63,911, a scale far less than Strategy Inc.'s one-time move, but it nonetheless raised its total holdings to 19,032 Bitcoins. Viewed in isolation, this looks more like a modest add-on to an existing position rather than an all-in bet. Yet, choosing to push their total holdings to nearly twenty thousand is still a clear directional statement in a moment when prices were weakening and sentiment was becoming conservative. One institution is “splashing” over a hundred million dollars during the pullback, while the other uses a slight increase to move its long-term position forward — both have positioned themselves on the opposite side of the selling pressure, becoming among the clearest counter-trend buyers in this round of panic pullback.

MVRV Z-Score 0.24 offers a calm warning

If we imagine the on-chain cost of all Bitcoin holders as a “cost line,” what the MVRV Z-Score does is compare the current total market value against this cost line, measuring whether the price is relatively “overvalued” or “undervalued.” When the indicator is high, it indicates that market prices are far ahead of costs, with heavy on-chain profits and easily driven sentiment; conversely, when the indicator declines or approaches a low point, it means that the price is squeezing out paper profits and moving closer to the "average purchase price" for everyone, shifting the overall valuation to the undervalued side.

As of June 8, data from a single blockchain source indicated that Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score was approximately 0.24, already near the commonly observed low ranges in the later stages of historical bear markets and price bottom areas, signaling that, in terms of the distribution of on-chain costs, it is not a universally “high position” phase, but rather closer to “undervalued territory.” Historically, every time this indicator has dropped into extremely low territory, it has indeed appeared multiple times near the latter stages of bear markets or around bottom areas, but not every instance has tightly matched with the ultimate price low. This is also why it is viewed as a “bottom signal” rather than an “absolute proof of bottom.” For traders keenly watching institutional purchases, trying to use a number to wrap up this pullback, 0.24 serves more as a calm warning: the on-chain valuation is approaching an appealing range, but “undervaluation” can last long. Treating the indicator as a definite bottom and reading the probabilistic signal as a guaranteed conclusion is one of the most dangerous misjudgments in such cycles.

Smart money bottom fishing, or high-risk buying at the top

When the MVRV Z-Score dropped to about 0.24, signaling “low valuation” on-chain, Strategy Inc. and Strive chose to make their moves above the sixty-thousand dollar mark: the former added 1,550 Bitcoins at an average price of approximately $65,332, while the latter increased its holdings by 32 Bitcoins near $63,911, pushing total holdings to 19,032. The figures present two starkly opposite narratives to the market: one is "smart money bottom fishing" — leading institutions are accumulating in the undervalued territory on-chain, willing to bet real money on the future cycle; the other is "high-risk buying at the top" — the absolute price level is not cheap, the MVRV is only returning to historical bottom territory without confirming a bottom, and any large purchases in this range may merely be picking up chips that have yet to be dumped.

Considering their motivations, these two purchases have subtle differences. Strategy Inc., a well-known public company that openly holds a large amount of Bitcoin, has long written “long-term bullish” into its brand narrative: the continuous accumulation itself is a stance reinforcing the image of "we will always stand here" for the market. This makes it more inclined to continue increasing positions above sixty thousand dollars, viewing short-term fluctuations as manageable noise in the books. Strive, as an emerging institution, seems more like it is executing a calculated risk trade: by expanding its position to 19,032 Bitcoins at a low MVRV and cautious sentiment, it is hedging against the possibility of further retracement using potential future gains. It does not have the thick narrative moat as Strategy Inc.; each newly added chip is more directly tied to the net value curve and performance pressure. Hence, similarly buying against the trend near 0.24, some view them as well-timed bottom hunters, while others believe they have put heavier stakes than ever before in the face of an unknown downward space, and whether this stake represents foresight or high-risk adventure can only be answered by future prices and on-chain trajectories.

Can historical bottom experiences be replicated in this cycle?

Looking back at past rounds of deep retracement, the MVRV Z-Score has typically fallen into extremely low ranges during bear markets, often overlapping with price bottom stages. This presents a typical scenario: a large number of holders experience paper losses, sentiment shifts from debating “if it will rise again” to “just wanting to exit alive,” with on-chain undervaluation signals and despair narratives outside synchronizing over time, providing reasons for a few contrarians to take action. This round of research notes reiterates this narrative: the current reading of about 0.24 is already close to the historical bear market bottom range, but it also clearly states — this is merely “close,” not “confirmation.” The historical chart at this moment does not offer a clean answer for this cycle.

The key difference this time is that standing at the other end of the MVRV curve are not just early high-risk tolerant retail investors and a few funds. By early 2026, Bitcoin will have completed a cycle of rise and pullback, and companies like Strategy Inc. publicly and continuously move Bitcoin onto their balance sheets, while institutions like Strive also increased positions against the trend when prices were pressured in early June. The participant structure and betting strategy in this cycle are completely different from the previous era, where the main approaches relied heavily on “sentiment + technical patterns” to find bottoms. In such an environment, the risk of treating a singular indicator as a “holy grail” has been amplified: if the MVRV Z-Score not only stays around 0.24 but continues to decline, it indicates that there may still be downward room for price levels, and the sentiment hasn’t truly reached a “point of argument weakness.” The bottom may no longer serve as a singularly timed turnaround point, but rather a slow buildup process that experiences back-and-forth turmoil over an extended period. The straightforward, decisive narrative of “extreme low about to reverse” may not play out the same way in this cycle.

Maintaining patience between panic and greed

Focusing on June 8, 2026, two clear threads can be observed: one is that the MVRV Z-Score has dipped down to approximately 0.24, historically often close to the latter stages of bear markets; the other is that Strategy Inc. invested about $101.3 million to add 1,550 Bitcoins at an average price of about $65,332 in early June, while Strive also increased its holdings to 19,032 Bitcoins as prices weakened. The combination of these two forms an important signal of “possibly approaching the bottom range,” but they fall far short of declaring that a major bottom has emerged — both the indicators and institutional actions are merely snapshots of the current moment, not guarantees of future trends. More realistically, the institutions are using funds that span many years, can bear price stagnation around lows for a long time, or even more declines; ordinary investors, if they merely follow their rhythm, tend to have only a few months or even weeks of patience and cash flow buffers, often getting pushed out by volatility and margin calls before narratives can manifest. What matters next is not to bet on “this candle being the final bottom,” but to continually track several key variables: whether MVRV is slowly rising, oscillating at low levels, or further declining; whether buyers like Strategy Inc. and Strive will continue to accumulate, shift to a wait-and-see approach or even start to reduce positions; and how changes in macroeconomic conditions regarding interest rate expectations and liquidity cycles will push risk tolerance to one side or the other. All of these can only be validated over time, and any investment decision must be assessed for risk under the acceptance of uncertainty.

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