After experiencing a round of rapid correction dominated by derivatives, Bitcoin has shown a reverse strength in an environment of extremely cold sentiment: Recently, the price briefly broke through the $63,000 mark, reporting approximately $63,007.18, with a 24-hour increase of about 1.91%. In stark contrast to the price rebound, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index further dropped to 8, setting a new low compared to the previous day's 12, landing in the typical "extreme fear" range, indicating that overall risk preference is still declining. At the same time, the spot buying in the U.S. market has not shown significant strength, and the Bitcoin premium index relative to the global average price on Coinbase has been negative for 21 consecutive days, currently around -0.0621%, indicating persistent selling pressure and weak willingness to bear risks—this highlights the mismatch of "extremely pessimistic sentiment, yet prices are recovering upward." In the absence of clear signals for a large-scale increase in spot funds, whether this round of rebound is merely a technical repair following an earlier overselling or the brewing potential bottom in extreme panic will become the core issue in the upcoming market games.
Bitcoin rebounds against the trend under extreme fear readings
From a data perspective, the contradiction of "extremely pessimistic sentiment, yet prices are recovering upward" is first reflected in the fear and greed index. This index ranges from 0 to 100, with lower values representing greater fear. Its composition is not a single price indicator but integrates six dimensions: volatility (25%), market trading volume (25%), social media popularity (15%), market surveys (15%), Bitcoin market cap share (10%), and Google trend analysis (10%), attempting to depict the overall state of capital behavior and public sentiment. After the recent downturn, the reading further dropped to 8, creating a new recent low and is now at the "sentiment freezing point" within the index system. Notably, the reading was still at 12 the previous day, and the sharp decline within just one day indicates that before the price stabilizes, several emotional factors such as trading volume, volatility, and search popularity are deteriorating simultaneously, rather than slowly building a bottom.
In stark contrast, on the same day, Bitcoin's price briefly broke through the vicinity of $63,000, with a 24-hour increase of about 1.91%. The signal from the price side is that of a "technical rebound after a deep decline," while the sentiment index indicates "multiple factors pointing to extreme pessimism." On one hand, the market recorded close to 2% upward movement; on the other hand, the comprehensive sentiment reading fell below the previous day, setting a new recent low. This means that the current upward movement is not accompanied by sentiment recovery but more resembles a passive rebound in a high-fear, high-volatility context, with the market not reaching any consensus on whether this round of increase constitutes a potential bottom.
16% sharp decline: Derivatives trigger chain sell-off
In this round of a previous cumulative decline of about 16%, the dominant force was not in the spot market. On-chain analyst Darkfost pointed out that this round of decline was primarily driven by the derivatives market, where concentrated sell-offs in futures triggered a typical "surrender-style sell-off": when prices weakened, highly leveraged long positions were forced to reduce positions and liquidate, compounded by the addition of actively bearish positions, amplifying the selling pressure's liquidity in a short period and causing the price decline pace to be noticeably faster than during previous spot-dominated phases, with volatility sharply increasing as well.
A key signal supporting this judgment is that trading volume in the Bitcoin futures market has approached the scale of the spot market. Darkfost believes that under such volume structure, short-term prices are more driven by the risk preference of leveraged funds and the pace of passive position reduction rather than the mild gaming power of spot buying and selling forces. Futures trading volume nearing spot means that changes in sentiment on derivatives can quickly amplify into price volatility: when sentiment shifts from hesitation to panic, concentrated exits by derivatives traders can suffice to trigger short-term drops of around 10%, while spot funds more passively follow this rhythm rather than actively pricing.
Coinbase negative premium for 21 days, persistent lack of U.S. buying
The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index essentially measures the difference between the BTC price on Coinbase and the global market average price: a positive value indicates that the platform's price is above the global average, often seen as a sign of more aggressive U.S. buying; a negative value signifies that Coinbase quotes are below external markets, with selling pressure exceeding buying demand, showing relative weakness in buying. This index has now maintained a negative value for 21 consecutive days, with the latest reading around -0.0621%. While the absolute magnitude is not large, the continuity over time points to the fact that selling pressure in the U.S. market has not significantly eased, and risk preference remains in a contraction state.
Placing this signal within the current combination of sentiment and price gives clearer direction for capital structure: while the fear and greed index has fallen to 8, indicating extremely pessimistic sentiment, during this time, Bitcoin’s price recorded an increase of about 1.91% within 24 hours, retaking the $63,000 line, but the Coinbase premium did not synchronize with the recovery, remaining in the negative range for 21 consecutive days. This implies that U.S. investors have not entered the market on a large scale to bottom-fish during this round of "rebound under extremely cold sentiment," showing more of a wait-and-see or reduction posture. Considering the context where derivatives dominated this round of volatility, the participation of U.S. spot trading in the current upward price movement is limited, and its sustainability largely depends on the subsequent evolution of non-U.S. capital and derivatives positions, rather than a sudden warming of risk preference among U.S. investors.
Ice point of sentiment accompanies rebound, sustainability becomes the biggest uncertainty
From a sentiment perspective, with the fear and greed index at 8, indicating extreme fear, Bitcoin has rebounded by approximately 1.91% within 24 hours and climbed back to around $63,000. This scenario is a typical "ice point of sentiment + price recovery" mismatch combination. Historically, similar extreme pessimism often occurs near phase bottoms, but it can only serve as a reflexive reference signal, not an accurate reversal trigger—extreme fear can persist longer and may coincide with another price low afterward to achieve a true synchronization of sentiment and price in bottoming.
Considering this round's path, the prior approximately 16% correction driven by derivatives has largely completed a deleveraging process, and with the leveraged chains cleaned out, market price elasticity to short covering is higher. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 21 consecutive days, currently around -0.0621%, indicating that U.S. spot buying has not significantly returned, and funds are more in defense or reduction states. This set of data combined seems more like passive short covering at low levels, pushing for technical price recovery, rather than large-scale incremental buying driven by U.S. spot. Thus, the current rebound aligns more with the characteristics of "short-term technical repair": after deleveraging, selling pressure has temporarily slowed, and price is more sensitive to short covering, but a fundamental trend reversal still requires meeting two conditions—first, the spot market must genuinely show sustained inflows of incremental funds, narrowing or even turning negative premiums positive; second, the fear and greed index must clearly break away from the extreme fear range, with sentiments shifting from passive halting of declines to proactive willingness to buy, both of which have not yet been falsified or confirmed by current data, constituting the greatest uncertainty in whether this round of rebound can evolve into a medium-term reversal.
In between panic and rebound, how to view the road ahead
Looking at extreme fear sentiment, deleveraging in derivatives, and U.S. negative premiums together, this round of movement, with the fear and greed index dropping to 8, while prices briefly rebounded to around $63,000, appears more like a "passive repair" after an earlier approximately 16% decline dominated by derivatives: strong liquidations and surrender-style sell-offs have come to a close, stabilizing selling pressure temporarily, making prices more sensitive to short covering, yet no trend reversal signal driven by incremental spot buying has been observed. Correspondingly, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for 21 consecutive days, currently around -0.0621%, coupled with no evidence of large-scale spot funds entering the market, indicating that this rebound remains structurally weak in terms of capital, rendering future prices highly uncertain, with the potential to continue oscillating or even revert to confirm sentiment and positions again. Moving forward, it is more meaningful not to determine whether "this rebound is indeed the bottom," but to daily track whether the fear and greed index can sustain recovery from the extreme fear range, whether Coinbase's negative premium shows significant convergence or even turns positive, and whether clear incremental spot funds ultimately appear in the data, as these variables will genuinely decide whether this rebound evolves into a longer-term trend.
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