On June 7, 2026, a headline simultaneously appeared on market terminals and social media in the Chinese-speaking world: several crypto and financial media outlets cited the domestic financial media Jinshi, stating that U.S. President Trump said, "The Federal Reserve has no reason to raise interest rates." This information currently remains mainly at the level of paraphrasing by Chinese media based on Jinshi, and as of the same day, it has not been directly confirmed by Trump's official account or mainstream English media. Essentially, it is a macro statement that has not yet been "accounted for" by overseas primary channels, rather than any already established FOMC resolution or dot plot update. In the U.S. institutional framework, the Federal Reserve is legally an independent central bank, and presidential comments on interest rate paths have historically been common. Trump has previously criticized the Federal Reserve for raising rates too quickly and has called for lower rates, making his remarks about "no reason to raise rates" easier for the market to interpret as a continuation of the White House's preference for low rates. For crypto traders, this statement points not to the speech itself but to two core macro variables: first, the market expectations for the future federal funds rate path; second, the credibility of whether the Federal Reserve can maintain independent decision-making under political pressure. The federal funds rate and the resulting real interest rates are the discount rates that "discount" cash flows from global risk assets, determining reasonable pricing for high-valuation tech stocks and high-beta assets like BTC and ETH in models, and also shaping the liquidity tightening or loosening alongside the dollar index; while dollar-pegged currencies like USDT and USDC represent the main vehicles for this dollar liquidity on-chain, their attractiveness relative to U.S. short-term Treasuries and money market fund yields will rebalance with every adjustment in interest rate expectations. The zero interest rates and balance sheet expansion after the pandemic in 2020 coincided with a major crypto bull market, while the rapid interest rate hikes in 2022-2023 placed clear downward pressure on BTC and ETH. Under this memory framework, even just an unverified statement of "no reason to raise rates" is enough to prompt the market to reevaluate the interest rate curve and any disruptions to the independence of the Federal Reserve, thereby predicting how the next step will feedback into the risk preferences and capital flows of BTC/ETH and dollar-pegged currencies.
The White House Microphone Aimed at the Federal Reserve: Political Upgrades of Interest Rates
When Jinshi's statement "The Federal Reserve has no reason to raise interest rates" went viral in the Chinese market, what was amplified was not merely an unconfirmed phrasing from an English mainstream channel, but the power structural posture it represents: the White House, in terms of interest rate direction, actively releases public signals that should ideally stem from an "independent operation" central bank. According to the U.S. institutional design, the Federal Reserve is not directly directed by the executive branch in legal terms, and presidential comments on interest rates are not rare in history, but each time someone makes high-profile comments at critical junctures, they are viewed by the market as adding a layer of political variable to the interest rate path. This kind of public opinion pressure will not directly rewrite the FOMC's voting results, but will be embedded in the pricing framework, becoming a "political constraint" that the market must factor in when weighing inflation and employment data.
Trump's identity and background give this statement "no reason to raise rates" inherently greater weight. During his previous term, he publicly criticized the Federal Reserve for raising rates too quickly and called for lower rates to support the economy and stock market, forming a clear historical sequence that has led the market to habitually view his remarks on interest rates as a continuation of path-dependent policy preferences rather than a one-time emotional outburst. Even if this commentary is relayed only through the media from a single source, traders instinctively ask: if inflation and employment data provide room for rate hikes, will the Federal Reserve be "a bit more hesitant" due to open opposition from the White House? This question itself erodes the imagination of the central bank's absolute independence and becomes a necessary uncertainty premium that must be applied to the interest rate futures and swap curves.
Interest Rate Expectations Loosen: Room for Dollar and Real Interest Rate Imagination
Once traders determine that "the probability of raising interest rates is likely to stop here," the first thing rewritten will be interest rate futures and the yield curve of government bonds. The federal funds rate futures will redistribute probabilities at the most sensitive front end: positions betting on "one or two more hikes" will be forced to close, implied terminal rates will move down, and the entire distribution of future interest rate paths will shift from "possibly continuing to rise" to “peaking earlier or even expecting rate cuts." Corresponding on U.S. Treasuries, short-end and 2-5 year yields will lead in retreat, while the long end will adjust its slope based on inflation and growth expectations—shifting the curve from "inversion + high rates" to "flattening or even steepening again." The interest rates themselves have not changed, but the market's "probability distribution of future federal funds rates" has been repriced, which is why Trump's statements are being closely observed: they may not directly rewrite FOMC decisions, but they could change how far traders dare to bet on the interest rate path ahead.
Once nominal interest rate expectations are revised downward, under the assumption that inflation expectations remain unchanged or even slightly decline, the room for imagination regarding real interest rates opens up. Real interest rates are viewed as the "risk-free return" anchor for dollar assets; they are the starting point for the global asset valuation discount rate and the watershed between cash, Treasuries, and high-risk assets: post-2020 low interest rates and loose monetary policy corresponded with deep declines in real interest rates, shifting the valuation of risk assets, including BTC/ETH, towards "forward stories"; while the rapid rate hikes of 2022-2023 pushed up both nominal and real interest rates, which pressured high-valuation tech stocks and crypto assets simultaneously. As the market begins to bet that "the high-rate phase will not be extended," the upside room for the discount rate is capped, and the strong dollar logic is undermined—expectations that the dollar will weaken or at least not continue to strengthen unilaterally will release a portion of global dollar funding’s risk appetite, allowing funds that were originally happy to stay in short-term Treasuries and money market funds to reassess whether to return to U.S. stocks and high-beta tech stocks, or even flow back on-chain through dollar-pegged currencies like USDT and USDC. What truly deserves crypto traders' attention is whether this repricing of "how much more can we raise, and how long can we go high" will leave a clear downward mark on the interest rate futures curve and the central level of real interest rates, thus opening up new risk premium restoration space for BTC/ETH.
Risk Button: BTC/ETH Follows Interest Rates
The zero interest rate + balance sheet expansion after 2020 pulled BTC/ETH directly into the large pool of "macro assets": during the phase of near-zero interest rates, asset purchasing, and fiscal stimulus, they rose alongside U.S. tech stocks, often recording the steepest slopes in windows of declining real interest rates and weakening dollar index; whereas in 2022-2023, the Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate hikes and the synchronous rise of nominal and real interest rates led to significant pullbacks for high-valuation tech stocks and BTC/ETH, with the label "highly sensitive to interest rates and liquidity" almost inscribed in sell-side reports. The market continually monitors interest rate futures curves, U.S. Treasury yields, and the dollar index, repeatedly discussing the phase-shifting negative correlation between BTC and real interest rates as well as the dollar index—though the correlation can be strong or weak at times, the cost of directional misalignment is enough for crypto traders to learn their lessons.
Looking at this timeline, the signal of "the president says no reason to raise anymore" feels more like a soft button pressed high up that sets an "interest rate ceiling." Even if the Federal Reserve is legally independent, traders will regard such pressure as a political constraint on future rate hike possibilities, initially giving BTC/ETH a slight risk premium on an emotional level; the imagination of rates pushing higher is suppressed while the expectation of lower central real interest rates rises, allowing the discount rate narrative for high-beta assets on-chain to be rewritten. Meanwhile, if the market interprets this statement as a hint of the White House's "tolerance for higher inflation," interest in the "store of value" narrative will also rise—this will intertwine with the short-term risk-taking impulse for high-volatility assets, reflecting first in the perpetual contract funding rates and futures basis, then transmitting through the leverage demand of dollar-pegged currencies like USDT and USDC to the spot market. What will truly determine whether BTC/ETH can continue to capitalize on this "interest rate halt dividend" is whether actual interest rates and the dollar index provide a consistent easing direction in the following weeks.
Dollar-Pegged Currencies and Capital Flows: New Arithmetic for Interest Rate Arbitrage
For professional capital, USDT and USDC, these dollar-pegged currencies, are essentially "on-chain dollar demand deposits," and whether to hold them depends first on one thing: is that 1 dollar put on-chain or returned to Treasuries and money market funds, which offers better annualized returns. In 2022-2023, when yields on U.S. short-term Treasuries and money market funds rose, the yield on off-chain dollar rate assets clearly surpassed DeFi yields, forcing some funds to redeem their on-chain positions to purchase T-bills, considered "risk-free." Now, if the market interprets "no reason to raise rates" as meaning limited upward potential for the federal funds rate, then the expected yield ceiling for future short-term debt and money market funds will also be capped, reducing the "attractiveness" of off-chain rate assets for that 1 dollar. Even if on-chain borrowing rates are lowered by large deposits, as long as they remain higher than short-term debt curves, funds have reason to stay in the crypto and DeFi ecosystems.
More microscopic changes happen within the Excel sheets of arbitrageurs and market makers. Spot + futures basis trading directly embeds the "dollar funding cost" on-chain: when they finance at dollar interest rates in traditional finance, buy BTC/ETH spot while simultaneously hedging short on perpetual or quarterly contracts, they require a sufficient futures annualized basis to cover interest and risks. If the market accepts that U.S. short-end rates are "held down," and the upper limit of dollar financing costs is clearer, even if futures basis is not as exaggerated as during high inflation periods, the risk-reward ratio of these trades is easier to calculate, thus increasing the demand for dollar-pegged currencies, raising on-chain borrowing utilization and leverage levels, initially pushing up the borrowing rate curve. Subsequently, more dollar-pegged currencies attracted by interest rate spreads will slowly push the rates back down, forming a new dynamic equilibrium between "basis—interest rates—capital flows," with the real determinant of whether this wave of on-chain dollars flows back or continues to flee being the central levels that interest rate futures and Treasury yield curves provide next.
Reality at the Trading Level: A Clue Awaiting Validation
Returning to this incident itself, as of June 7, the claim that Trump said "the Federal Reserve has no reason to raise interest rates" still primarily comes from Jinshi and its relay by several Chinese media outlets, and is neither found on Trump's official account nor cited directly by mainstream English financial media, appearing more like a "political clue" needing secondary verification rather than a hard fact already integrated into the global asset pricing consensus. For crypto traders, what can truly be placed in orders at the market are never unverified statements but rather how the forthcoming FOMC will depict the path in statements and press conferences, whether inflation and employment data will push real interest rates up again, and whether interest rate futures curves, U.S. Treasury yields, and the dollar index will provide new central levels. Only when these macro variables show directional changes will the price of BTC/ETH, funding rates, futures basis, and the contraction or rebound of dollar-pegged currency market caps translate the narrative of "the White House prefers low rates" into real assets on-chain. What deserves closer observation next are the feedback from interest rate futures and DXY before and after the FOMC communications, and whether there will be sustained shifts in the repricing of the correlations between BTC/ETH and Treasury yields, the dollar index.
Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
AiCoin exclusive Hyperliquid benefits: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/AICOIN88
AiCoin exclusive Aster benefits: https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2
On-chain Telegram community: https://t.me/AiCoinWhaleData
On-chain community: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=N6OVMor5g
AiCoin on-chain Twitter: https://x.com/aicoinwhaledata
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
