Standing at this moment on June 7, 2026, in the same AI cycle, completely different betting methods have unfolded simultaneously across different markets: on one side, global bond giants have begun to quietly "collect umbrellas," making defensive arrangements in the credit bond market in anticipation of a potential deep credit cycle; on the other side, on-chain institutional addresses and upstream hardware manufacturers continue to push their bets toward the AI narrative itself. Dual Line Capital fund manager Robert Cohen candidly stated at the Bloomberg Global Credit Bond Forum that "the probability of an AI bubble forming is nearly 100%," after which Dual Line Capital and Oak Tree Capital bought credit bonds deemed to have better survival capability, hoping to stand upstream in the repayment chain after the bubble bursts. Around the same time frame, on-chain analyst Ai Yi tracked that an entity associated with Hex Trust purchased approximately 13.01 million dollars worth of H tokens within about 20 hours, increasing its cumulative holdings to approximately 182 million tokens, equivalent to about 121 million dollars at the time market price, accounting for 6.42% of the circulating supply. Under circumstances where project public information is still incomplete and is only partially interpreted as possibly related to AI or decentralized identity, this concentrated buying seems more like a move to grab chips during a phase of high uncertainty. Also betting on the future of AI are upstream glass substrate manufacturers—X platform user "new stock god" Serenity pointed out that a new cycle of advanced packaging for AI is approaching, with SKC Absolics planning to mass-produce glass substrates in the second half of 2026, and the joint projects of Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Sumitomo Chemical aiming for mass production in the second half of 2027, supplying AMD, Apple, Broadcom, and large cloud providers. The mass production timetable is viewed as a key coordinate in the next hardware cycle. In the following sections, this article will dissect the positions and chips of different participants at the same betting table in this round of AI cycle along the clues of "bond defense, on-chain H token bets, and glass substrate expansion."
Bond Giants Bet on Survival After AI Bubble
Compared to directly shorting AI concept stocks in the secondary market, the two global bond giants, Dual Line Capital and Oak Tree Capital, well-known for their expertise in credit bonds, have chosen a path more in line with their own DNA: making defensive allocations in the credit bond market. According to public information, these two institutions have recently begun purchasing credit bond varieties that are considered likely to maintain repayment capabilities and have relatively controllable default probabilities during a deep credit cycle, rather than directly shorting AI-related assets. The specific targets and scales of their purchases have not been disclosed, leaving outsiders to infer judgments based on their directional moves rather than details.
At the Bloomberg Global Credit Bond Forum in early June 2026, Dual Line Capital fund manager Robert Cohen openly stated, "The probability of an AI bubble forming is nearly 100%," making public the concerns that many bond funds held in their hearts—not questioning the AI technology itself but worrying that the current valuation narrative surrounding AI, combined with leverage, could evolve into a period of severe asset repricing as the macro environment cools. Against this backdrop, the core question on which Dual Line and Oak Tree are betting has shifted from "How much longer can AI rise?" to "Who can survive after the bubble bursts?" The response they provide with their credit bond positions is a survival competition in a potentially coming deep credit cycle, rather than the next doubling opportunity in the current equity story.
Twenty Hours of Quiet Accumulation of On-Chain H Tokens
Almost coinciding with the moment when bond giants began to collectively withdraw, on-chain there appeared a starkly opposing "fast attack." According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Ai Yi, an address marked as associated with Hex Trust continuously purchased approximately 13.01 million dollars worth of H tokens over about 20 hours, completing a concentrated buying round that nearly compressed into a single trading day. By the end of the accumulation, the address held approximately 182 million H tokens, valued at around 121 million dollars at the time market price, accounting for about 6.42% of the circulating supply, instantly ranking it as a "large holder" that must be discussed within the overall structure of project chips.
In contrast to the defensive posture of the bond market, such on-chain actions resemble an offensive bet to grab positions in the early stages of an uncertain narrative. Hex Trust itself is a crypto asset custody institution, and the significant holdings of its associated entities have been viewed by many participants as a signal of "institutional presence," especially given that the public information on the H token project remains incomplete and is only partially interpreted as possibly related to AI or decentralized identity. This heavy buying by associated addresses at custody institutions is more easily read as an advance positioning for future application spaces. However, current public information has not confirmed any formal strategic or equity relationship between Hex Trust and the project party. It remains unclear whether this position represents custodial clients, multi-party commissions, or proprietary bets; such a concentrated holding structure amplifies the "institutional sense of participation" while objectively raising the potential impact of a single address's actions on the subsequent balance of chips and market expectations for the project.
From Identity to Computing Power: The Extension of AI Narrative On-Chain
In a situation where project information is still not fully disclosed, the market has preemptively labeled H tokens with dual tags of "AI" and decentralized identity, imagining them as potential chips for the future "AI application layer." Regarding projects related to Humanity, arrangements pertaining to token ownership and unlocking remain at the rumor and verification stage, with the official side not providing a clear plan; however, this does not prevent some addresses from treating "AI + identity" and "AI + data" as long-term options: while the business model and technical pathways have yet to be validated, chips have already been placed, betting that once AI systems widely utilize on-chain identities and data, early holders can achieve unmatched bargaining power.
The substantial concentrated purchases by entities associated with Hex Trust took place during this period of high uncertainty: complete project usage, technical details, and economic model disclosure are limited, yet there has already emerged an institutional-level holding that occupies a significant proportion of the circulating supply. In the absence of a transparent token mechanism and clear implementation roadmap, whether this concentrated purchase is a forward-looking position on the "AI + identity" track or lays the groundwork for future more intense chip gaming has no singular answer. It can only be said that it amplifies the leverage effect of a single narrative on price and expectations, also adding a layer of unquantifiable risk premium to the extension of the AI narrative on-chain.
Glass Substrate Expansion: AMD and Apple Bet on Hardware Foundation
Trading around AI in the stock market is gradually spreading from the most prominent chips themselves to more upstream "screws." Terms like advanced packaging and glass substrates, which originally circulated only among engineers, are being viewed by capital as coordinates for a new round of discussion. X platform user "new stock god" Serenity has pointed out at this moment that the new cycle of advanced packaging for AI is approaching, and the glass substrate industry chain is welcoming a critical time node—if the on-chain actions are about seizing application layer chips, then the stock market is beginning to bet on the cement and steel that form the foundation of computing power.
According to public industry plans, SKC Absolics plans to launch mass production of glass substrates in the second half of 2026, primarily supplying the key materials needed for AI advanced packaging to chip companies like AMD; the joint project of Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Sumitomo Chemical is set for mass production in the second half of 2027, with expected clients including Apple, Broadcom, and large cloud manufacturers. The glass substrate is considered a core element in AI advanced packaging, thus the timelines for these two production lines are regarded by the market as the "grade line" for the next AI hardware cycle: only when AMD, Apple, Broadcom, and cloud manufacturers continue to provide sufficiently certain orders and capital expenditures in the coming years can this expansion and betting surrounding the "hardware foundation" transition from narrative to a real profit cycle.
When Defensive Bonds Meet Betting Tokens: Where to Look Next
From the perspective of June 7, 2026, the betting methods in the AI cycle have diverged into three facets: on one side, Dual Line Capital and Oak Tree Capital are tightening their positions on credit bonds, using defensive bonds that can "survive in a deep credit cycle" to hedge against an AI bubble that is almost viewed as inevitable; on the other side, on-chain, per monitoring by Ai Yi, Hex Trust associated entities have scanned up approximately 13.01 million dollars worth of H tokens within about 20 hours, cumulatively holding about 182 million, accounting for around 6.42% of the circulating supply, placing heavily concentrated chips on a narrative still incomplete and interpreted by some as relevant to AI or DID related Humanity; the third facet comes from the industry side, where SKC Absolics and Samsung Electro-Mechanics have locked down glass substrate mass production times in the second half of 2026 and the second half of 2027, incorporating their judgments regarding AI hardware demand into real capital expenditures and production rhythms. The fundamental disagreement does not lie in whether or not to support AI itself, but rather in differing participants' judgments on whether computing power and application demand can continue to grow and when profits will be realized in financial reports, as well as their assessments of how much valuation pullback and leverage pressure their respective balance sheets can endure. Going forward, it is worth keeping a close eye on three lines: first, the "scissor difference" between defensive credit bonds and the price and return performance of various AI-related assets, which will tell us who is footing the bill for the bubble; second, whether the on-chain holding structure of H tokens continues to concentrate toward a few institutional addresses, the project party's disclosure rhythm regarding usage, technology, and economic models will be, and whether the market will adjust its pricing framework for its "AI cycle chips" under changing regulatory environments; third, whether glass substrates can be mass-produced as planned and the order fulfillment status of downstream AMD, Apple, Broadcom, and cloud manufacturers, which will determine how much of the AI narrative currently inscribed in bond terms, on-chain addresses, and wafer factory capacity sheets can translate into real and sustainable profits.
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