Is BTC Sixty Thousand the Bottom?

Don't be naive!

There are deeper bears ahead!

Hello everyone, good morning! Here is Li Mu, first let’s look at a set of data: According to platform statistics, nearly a million people were liquidated within 72 hours, with over 5 billion US dollars being cleared. Here, I want to congratulate all the friends still active in the market; regardless of profit or loss, your presence has already passed the market's first round of tests, and the real challenges are yet to come. The price of the coin is narrowing, liquidity is decreasing, and the macro market is weakening. The market will usher in a real "hell mode," where even the slightest mistake by the strong will lead to irreversible consequences. But once you endure this, what awaits is a smooth journey ahead.

—— Bitcoin and the Four-Year Cycle

Since its inception, Bitcoin has formed a four-year cyclical pattern strongly tied to "halving." With each cycle coming to fruition, the saying of a bull and bear market every four years emerged. If we trace back to the market situation in June 2022, we will find that it also broke below the previous lows and reached the cyclical bottom. Therefore, combining this with the current trends leads to my previous point that sixty thousand is not a bottom, but perhaps the lower levels could genuinely be the bottom? Why do I conclude this? Please follow along with Li Mu's perspective as I discuss various factors, including cycles, market conditions, and macroeconomic trends, to explain why sixty thousand is not a bottom, where the true bottom lies, and when to expect a reversal.

—— The Dealer, the Market, and the Bottom

Searching for the Sword: Deducing the Bottom through Market Trends

Let’s trace back over two cycles: In 2017, BTC rose from 2817 to 19800, then entered a bear market in early 2018, dropping to around 3100; in 2020, the bull market resumed, climbing to 69000, before entering another bear market in 2022, with the lowest drop around 15500. You’ll notice that the commonly known bear market drop of 70% is just an approximation; both BTC cycles saw a drop of about 80% from bullish peaks. If we calculate this way, does it mean we need to see BTC below forty thousand this time? Here, Li Mu won't deny this, but will present a fresh perspective through another view.

This is the monthly trend of BTC. I wonder if you have noticed an interesting phenomenon: after each round of bull market ascent for Bitcoin, the bottom point of the next bear market corresponds with the peak point of the previous round. Looking at this bull market with that perspective reveals something intriguing: the hypothetical support in the chart can correspond with the mid-bull bottom at 49800. So if we set this target as the endpoint for the drop, could it form a new bottom when the target is reached? I think there’s a great possibility, and I will start accumulating buys here. After all, the dealer's mindset is never straightforward; it often involves expectations beyond our knowledge and hidden patterns. My perspective, I believe, is unique across the web.

—— It’s Darkest Before Dawn

Geopolitical conflicts intensifying, inflation rising, micro-strategies selling coins... Here, we won’t dwell on the reasons for the decline; the bear market is an established fact.

First, let me talk about something big: Recently, the AI unicorn Anthropic completed H-round financing, with its valuation skyrocketing to 965 billion US dollars, challenging OpenAI directly, with an annualized revenue of 47 billion leaving many people drooling. You might be curious why I’m bringing this up; what does it have to do with the cryptocurrency market? Hold on, keep reading. Aside from Anthropic, Musk's SpaceX is also set to start issuing in mid-June, and OpenAI is also planning to go public in the second half of the year. The combined market value of these three companies exceeds 40 trillion US dollars. Calculating with 20% circulation, the market needs to handle 800 billion dollars in buying. Where is this money going to come from? It's unlikely to all come from the crypto market, considering the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is around 2 trillion dollars. If we draw from there, wouldn’t that deplete it?

At this point, some might start to panic, but don’t worry, we’re only halfway through this discussion, there’s a turnaround in sight.

In SpaceX's bid document, 18,000 BTC were explicitly stated as assets, worth over 600 million dollars, and Musk hasn't thrown any away. Of course, this isn't the most important part; what matters is the new narrative formed by AI and crypto. Even current on-chain Pre-IPO platforms are beginning to set prices, indicating that real demand is driving the AI plus crypto track from concept to reality. What does this mean? It signifies that cryptocurrencies are no longer just seen as a gambling platform by outsiders, but are gradually evolving into a part of global pricing.

Objectively, the short-term pressure is already quite massive, and with funds being drained, the upcoming trends are bound to be even more sluggish, particularly in the coming months of July, August, and September. It is already predictable how torturous the market will be under macroeconomic bearish liquidity tightening.

—— Break and then Stand, New Bull Climbing

Geopolitical conflicts will end, inflation will be curbed, and micro-strategies will buy coins again. Funds will flow back into the market, and panic and doubt will dissipate; does this resonate?

Just like market movements, cycles, everything holds patterns. If we connect Bitcoin's monthly gains, we can see that Bitcoin, like US stocks, has a Halloween effect; October and November are traditionally the months with the strongest returns, with average gains exceeding 20%.

Therefore, my view on the future market is: Given macro-driven influences, liquidity will tighten further. The upcoming market will explore a new bottom amid oscillating downward trends, expected to reach around BTC 49000 and ETH 1390, before entering a prolonged period of liquidity exhaustion until October, during which the market will establish a bottom, coinciding with the initial launch of the next sector rotation.

Finally, I offer a suggestion: Some friends may still be looking at BTC 30K or 20K, but if October comes and you haven't reached your desired position, just buy directly. After all, when the market truly starts moving, some people might hesitate.

This article is authored by Li Mu of Finance (Official account: Li Mu Speaks). Exclusive original sharing, please indicate the source when reprinting.

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