Many friends find it hard to understand, and they all say that non-farm payrolls are negative news. In fact, the data from non-farm payrolls itself is not negative. This time, the non-farm payroll data can be said to be quite good, with the unemployment rate not rising and labor employment numbers exceeding expectations. These data are all positive for the economy. But why did the market fall after the non-farm payrolls were released?

It's precisely because the non-farm data is too good that it has negatively impacted the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. With such strong employment data, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to increase cuts in interest rate expectations. Rather, due to the good labor data, the Federal Reserve can maintain its position for a longer time, or consider raising interest rates if inflation rises.

Currently, the main culprit behind all the issues is the inflation expectation caused by the Strait of Hormuz. If this problem can be resolved, the inflation expectation due to rising oil prices will dissipate. Therefore, the current focus remains on the price of WTI, and continue to maintain short positions on WTI.

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