In the 2021 bull market, the trading volume and check size of crypto VCs were both elevated to high levels, but since then it has slid down a downhill slope. By May 2026, data from The Block illustrated a glaring low point on this curve—about 50 VC transactions for the entire month, the lowest since before 2021. The trading volume of both the crypto infrastructure and crypto financial services sectors also dropped to multi-year lows, making the "capital winter" no longer an emotional metaphor, but a cold statistical reality. Meanwhile, according to Deep Tide TechFlow, a significant amount of global venture capital shifted towards the AI sector around 2026, leading to a scarcity of early-stage quality crypto projects and becoming the structural backdrop for this long-term contraction. Just as the primary market almost cooled off at the beginning of June, with only about a week left until the Americas World Cup kicks off on June 12, the secondary market was reignited by an old and simple narrative: betting and predictions around the outcomes of the games and the golden boot surprises. Research briefs indicated that the prediction market sector overall strengthened at this point, becoming one of the few directions actively chased by funds; on the HTX market page, the OPN token saw a 24-hour increase of about 97.24%, priced around $0.2365, while LMTS saw a 24-hour increase of about 8.2% (these are single platform data, with sample and liquidity bias risks), standing out like a localized heat wave in a generally bleak scene. This article will follow this stark contrast fracture line, comparing the decline of VC with the heated narrative surrounding the World Cup, observing how the crypto market wobbles between the reality of long-term contraction and the illusion of short-term speculation.

Only about 50 trades a month: VC frozen at the bottom of a five-year winter

Pulling back the perspective from the short-term carnival of the prediction sector, the primary market curve is almost a downward slant. During the 2021 bull market, the number and scale of crypto VC transactions once surged to historical highs, but starting in 2022, with the market retreating and regulatory uncertainties accumulating, the number of trades gradually fell each year. By May 2026, according to The Block's data, the monthly transaction number for crypto venture capital was only about 50 trades, dropping to the lowest level since before 2021. More pointedly, the two major traditional "essential" sectors— infrastructure and crypto financial services—also recorded their VC trading volume at multi-year lows in May 2026, forming a stark contrast to the fervor of the bull market phase, and leading to this set of data being treated on June 4 as the latest confirmation signal that "the long-term adjustment period has entered deep waters."

The reality of only about 50 trades that month directly rewrote the survival logic of early-stage projects. The money is still there, but the actions are incredibly slow: the control over the pace by funds far outweighs the pursuit of scale, valuation negotiations have shifted from "emotional price rises" to "discounts based on cash flow", financing rounds have been stretched out, and many teams are either forced to lower expectations or waste time and confidence in rounds of due diligence and waiting. Both infrastructure and crypto financial services sectors, the two areas where stories were most easily articulated in the past, have collectively cooled down, meaning that even the industry's "foundation" and "plumbers" have difficulty easily obtaining checks. Between the peak five years ago and the current monthly low of about 50 transactions lies the collective migration trajectory of an entire generation of crypto entrepreneurs who are forced to slow down and learn to budget carefully during the winter.

AI steals the spotlight: Early crypto projects marginalized

Behind the prolonged financing rounds, there is not only a decline in coin prices but also a systematic "diversion" of attention. According to Deep Tide TechFlow, around 2026, most new stories for global venture capital began to revolve around AI, with fund partners and family offices rewriting investment research templates—bullets that would have flowed into crypto were now allocated to large models, computing power, and AI applications. The result is that, at the low point of about 50 crypto VC transactions recorded by The Block in May 2026, the overlapping facts of "money becoming less" and "money going elsewhere" caused the funding pool for early crypto projects to be bluntly squeezed out.

Even more cruel is the contraction on the supply side. According to the same Deep Tide TechFlow report, there is already an insufficient supply of early quality projects in the crypto field, becoming one of the structural reasons for the decline in the number of transactions. During the bear market and capital winter, VCs shifted from the "scattergun betting" approach of the 2021 bull market to a configuration logic of "highly selective + concentration on top projects", willing to bet on either a few already validated leading projects or topics with sufficiently certain narratives and paths. For entrepreneurs, this means that merely having a white paper is far from enough: projects must provide a clear path to revenue and verifiable user scenarios right from the start, and must be able to tell a long story that doesn’t get drowned out in the context of the AI clamor, or else, even with solid technology, they will find it difficult to carve out a position on today's investor lists.

World Cup approaching: Prediction market becomes a playground for short-term funds

As the countdown to the Americas World Cup shifted from months to days—this was noted in a report on June 4, 2026, just about a week before the opening on June 12—the crypto market quickly realized that this was a narrative stage almost tailor-made for prediction products. The World Cup, as a global event, naturally brings a clear time window and an intense rhythm of matches; every duel, every goal can inherently be broken down into betting scenarios of "will it happen?". For funds weary from searching for new stories, this clearly defined rhythm and verifiable outcomes of a short script are evidently easier to calculate as a business that can quickly enter and exit and set profit and stop-loss parameters compared to the distant and abstract "next major infrastructure cycle."

The background is that the long-term story of the primary market is becoming increasingly difficult to articulate. Data from The Block indicates that the monthly transaction number for crypto VC was only about 50 in May 2026, hitting a new low since before 2021, compounded by Deep Tide TechFlow's comments on funds and attention being massively diverted by AI; long-term patient capital in the crypto field has clearly shrunk, giving the secondary market driven by events a larger stage. Research briefs indicate that as the World Cup approaches, the prediction market tokens overall strengthened: in the HTX market, OPN increased approximately 97.24% in 24 hours, priced around $0.2365, while LMTS rose approximately 8.2% during the same period (all from a single source, with sample and liquidity bias). In a short time, this became the most eye-catching green bar on the market listing. This split image between long-term financing “capital winter” and localized theme “overheated carnival” illustrates that the crypto industry increasingly relies on external events like the World Cup, which have short cycles and fixed timetables, to maintain trading activity, rather than relying on its own medium- to long-term innovative narratives.

OPN daily nearly doubles: World Cup mood ignites betting

In this localized carnival, OPN has almost been shaped into the face of "World Cup prediction betting". According to HTX market data, OPN saw a 24-hour rise of about 97.24%, priced around $0.2365, directly classified in research briefs as one of the representatives of the prediction market sector, far outpacing the broader market and most other tokens in the same category. This trend resembles funds piling their expectations for the World Cup onto a single symbol: not concerned with whether the product mechanism has matured, but rather concentrating the imagination of "World Cup + prediction" first to drive up the price, and then feeding back emotions through market reactions, framing the story as a "legitimate target in the official sector."

By contrast, LMTS, also labeled as a prediction market token, saw an approximate increase of about 8.2% in the same 24-hour window (single source research brief), drawing a clear emotional divide from OPN's nearly doubled performance: it is the few selected tokens by the market that are leveraging the narrative rather than a systemic revaluation of the entire sector. It’s important to emphasize that the current depth of buying for OPN and the actual transaction situation for LMTS are not disclosed in public data; the market is primarily based on single trading platforms or single data sources. In a relatively weak liquidity environment, such a nearly doubling short-term surge can easily be magnified into the visual illusion of "sector starting up", but it also reminds all participants that while the heat of the World Cup can quickly ignite betting prices, it does not necessarily elevate the long-term value and true pricing power of these tokens simultaneously.

Theme heatwave hard to melt winter: Survival rules after VC decline

If we zoom out to view the crypto world in early June 2026, one end is the approximately 50 VC transactions in May from The Block's data, and both the infrastructure and crypto financial services sectors have dropped to multi-year lows, confirming a slide toward "winter depths" since the 2021 peak; at the other end, however, is the prediction market carnival brought on by the approaching Americas World Cup—research briefs show overall strengthening in the sector, with OPN on HTX increasing about 97.24%, priced around $0.2365, and LMTS rising about 8.2% (all from single source data), striking a striking contrast against the backdrop of VC decline. This stark contrast is actually a typical scene of "structural winter + localized heat wave": according to Deep Tide TechFlow, global venture capital massively shifted towards the AI sector around 2026, leading to not only a diversion of funds from the crypto field but also a shortage of early quality projects, causing a continuous slump in the monthly number of VC transactions, while events like the World Cup, which naturally fit predictions and betting, can only amplify chip fluctuations within limited time windows but cannot rewrite the long-term contraction pattern of the primary market. For investors, the real survival rule is not to chase every hot trend like the World Cup but to calmly differentiate which sectors possess cross-cycle product and cash flow potential from those that are merely amplifiers of one-time emotional narratives. Maintaining this differentiation ability during a structural winter itself is the only remaining advantage and moat.

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