At yesterday's Computex event in Taipei, the biggest winner was MRVL.

Jensen Huang spent over $6.5 billion in just three months to invest in a large number of optical companies, including Marvell (MRVL). At the event, Huang stated that Marvell would be the "next trillion-dollar company." MRVL surged 32.52% in a single day, with a trading volume exceeding 100 million shares, resulting in the largest single-day increase in the company’s history.

Along with this, the entire optical module sector was ignited: Coherent rose 17.3%, Lumentum increased by 13.3%, Corning jumped nearly 12%, Ciena climbed over 8%, and Nokia also saw an uptick.

Regarding the logic of optical modules, the rhythm editor has already provided a deep analysis. In an article published a month and a half ago titled "In the AI Era, the 'Great Scarcity' Moment of Fiber and Copper", the rhythm editor clearly dissected the underlying logic of the physical limits of copper cables, the great scarcity of optical fibers, and the interconnected demand of AI data centers, revealing that the amount of optical fiber required for AI clusters is 36 times that of traditional CPU racks. The production expansion cycle for optical rods is 18 to 24 months, and short-term supply rigidity constraints remain unsolved.

MRVL's single-day surge of 32% closed at $290, pushing its market cap over $250 billion; the AI optical network logic from Nokia is also increasingly recognized, becoming a frequently mentioned key investment target. These two names seem to have already become representatives of optical modules.

However, the rhythm editor wants to delve deeper into the optical module supply chain by breaking it down into segmented tracks to identify those targets that have not yet been fully priced by the market but hold strong leverage in their respective bottleneck segments. Many investors focus solely on the 800G and 1.6T optical modules themselves, but the entire supply chain can be broken down into at least six sub-tracks and levels, and we will select specific targets within each segment.

This will help readers find, in the U.S. stock market’s optical modules, which real targets are worth attention besides MRVL and NOK.

This stock selection methodology is inspired by "Wall Street's New Stock God" Serenity, who is currently the most prominent analyst in the optical communication and AI supply chain’s "bottleneck theory," known for its "chokepoint" logic, specializing in uncovering invisible bottlenecks in AI data center optical interconnections rather than chasing after large-cap stocks like Nvidia or Broadcom.

Optical Fiber Materials: GLW (Corning)

This is the base layer of the entire supply chain and the most difficult to replace. The core raw material for optical fibers is called optical rod (Preform), and the production expansion cycle lasts as long as 18 to 24 months, with extremely complex processes. The amount of optical fiber required for an AI data center is 36 times that of traditional CPU racks; the fiber demand for the Meta Hyperion data center project alone reaches 8 million miles.

GLW

Corning holds the number one market share in the global optical fiber market, an absolute oligopoly. GLW currently has a market cap of approximately $172 billion, with a stock price of $197.

Founded in 1851 and the inventor of low-loss optical fiber, no other company can replicate its production capacity in the near term.

The core of its moat: optical rod manufacturing is a process that highly integrates "materials science + precision manufacturing," with yield accumulation measured in decades. Corning's experience in this process exceeds 40 years. The net profit from optical communications business is expected to grow by 28% year-on-year in 2024, by 71% in 2025, and skyrocketing by 93% in Q1 2026, with growth accelerating.

On May 6, 2026, Nvidia and Corning announced a multi-year strategic partnership, with a total investment in warrants reaching up to $3.2 billion, requiring Corning to expand its optical connection manufacturing capacity in the U.S. tenfold and optical fiber capacity by over 50%, and to build three new factories. This is Nvidia's largest single bet in the entire optical supply chain. Corning is also the fiber and connector supplier for Broadcom's CPO platform TH5-Bailly, serving as the common foundation for two sets of CPO ecosystems.

The stock price has risen over 315% in the past 12 months. Serenity includes Corning in its "material oil" supply chain bottleneck map, positioning it as a solid foundational investment.

Indium Phosphide Substrates: AXT (AXTI)

This is the most undervalued part of the entire supply chain, and the most famous pick by Serenity.

Why is indium phosphide (InP) so critical? Because silicon cannot emit light. All lasers in optical modules require InP as substrate material. Nvidia’s optical connection chips, all high-speed transceivers, and the optical engines in CPOs all rely on InP wafers. Even more crucial: the growth process of InP single crystals is an order of magnitude more complex than that of silicon, with production expansion cycles often exceeding two years, which cannot be quickly resolved by pouring in capital.

In 2025, global shipments of InP substrates are expected to be around 600,000 to 700,000 wafers, whereas the actual market demand is 1.5 to 2 million wafers. The supply gap exceeds 70%, which cannot be eliminated in the short term.

The landscape in this layer is extremely concentrated, with three companies controlling 80-90% of the global market share: Sumitomo Electric from Japan, JX Metals from Japan, and AXT from the U.S.

AXTI

AXT controls 60-70% of global InP substrate production, making it the largest single supplier in this oligopolistic market. AXT currently has a market cap of about $7.2 billion, with a stock price of $116.

This is the signature pick of Serenity and one of his most frequently discussed targets (over 70 public tweets). His core judgment on AXT is simply: "The entire construction of the AI industry relies on this company; all players, including Google, Nvidia, and Microsoft, depend on its indium phosphide substrate. Without indium phosphide substrates, the entire AI optical interconnection story will end in 2026."

AXT is the largest single supplier in the global InP substrate market, with a client list that includes Google, Nvidia, Microsoft, and all major optical module manufacturers. In Q1 of 2026, the company reported revenues of $26.9 million, a 39% year-on-year increase, with InP business revenue reaching $13.6 million. The company has just completed a $632.5 million financing, specifically for expanding InP capacity, aiming to double production in both 2026 and 2027. Order demand is expected to grow about 2 times in 2026 and again double in 2027.

Serenity initially built a position around $12 with a target price of $150. As of writing, it is close to $141, yielding over 1000% profit. This trade most clearly validates his methodology: small market cap, a client list of trillion-dollar giants, and being the only choice upstream; once such a company is "discovered" by the market, its elasticity is multiples of large-cap companies.

However, it is important to note the risk: AXT's production lines are primarily in China, presenting geopolitical supply chain exposure, which is a core risk variable.

Lasers and Optical Chips: LITE, COHR, MTSI

This is the manufacturing phase with the highest technical barriers in the optical module supply chain. What is truly scarce in the AI era is not the complete optical modules, but the chips that generate optical signals, specifically EML (electrically modulated laser) and CW Laser (continuous wave laser). A 1.6T optical module requires a 200G/lane EML, and currently, only one company in the world is mass-producing such a chip.

LITE

Lumentum is the only supplier in the world mass-producing 200G/lane EML, and currently, there is no second company at this technological node. LITE currently has a market cap of about $700 million, with a stock price of $1,025.

This represents the highest technical barrier single-point monopoly in the current optical module track. Nvidia's large-scale pre-orders for this capacity have already pushed delivery dates beyond 2027, triggering supply tightness across the entire industry. Serenity has listed LITE as the core benchmark of the optical wave cutting narrative, frequently discussing its dual roles in pluggable modules and CPOs.

In March 2026, Nvidia invested $2 billion and included multi-billion-dollar procurement commitments. OCS (optical circuit switch) has backorders exceeding $400 million, and additional orders for CPO amount to hundreds of millions, with delivery scheduled for the first half of 2027. FY2026 Q2 revenue was $665.5 million, a 66% year-on-year increase, with company guidance indicating a growth rate exceeding 85% for the next quarter. Once the Greensboro wafer plant fully operates in early 2028, it will ultimately support an annualized capacity of $5 billion. On the day of Computex, it rose 13.3% to about $1,025. Rothschild’s target price is $1,270, Jefferies at $1,200, and JPMorgan at $1,130.

COHR

Coherent is the company with the highest degree of vertical integration in the optical device supply chain, owning the entire production line from InP raw materials to lasers, packaging, and modules. COHR currently has a market cap of about $66-73 billion, with a stock price of $427.

Originally founded as II-VI Incorporated in 1971, it rebranded after acquiring Coherent in 2022. Coherent’s moat comes from something other companies cannot achieve: owning the entire production line from InP raw materials to lasers to packaging to modules. It is one of the world's largest InP system manufacturers, boasting its own InP wafer fabrication, laser production lines, packaging, and module capacity; no other company handles all four segments itself.

Data center business book-to-bill (order-to-shipment ratio) has exceeded 4 times for several consecutive quarters, indicating that demand far exceeds capacity. Nvidia also invested $2 billion with attached multi-year procurement commitments. FY2026 Q3 revenue was $1.806 billion, a 21% year-on-year increase. The expansion rate of the 6-inch InP production line is ahead of schedule. The stock price has risen approximately 455% over the past 52 weeks. In early 2026, Coherent was included in the S&P 500, continuously attracting passive funds. Serenity incorporates COHR into its core DCO and laser supply chain map.

MTSI

MAACOM is an invisible leader in the high-frequency analog chip sector of optical modules, producing most of the irreplaceable components, including TIA (transimpedance amplifier) and laser drivers. MTSI currently has a market cap of about $26 billion, with a stock price of $365.

Many people don’t realize that the most expensive and hardest-to-replace components in optical modules are not just DSP but also high-frequency analog chips like TIA and laser drivers, many of which come from MACOM. The competitive landscape is quite concentrated; the reason is that designing and tuning high-frequency analog circuits requires years of experience and cannot be quickly replicated just by capital investment.

MACOM’s product roadmap already covers 1.6T and 3.2T ecosystems, with FY2026 Q2 revenue of $288.9 million and Q3 guidance median of approximately $335 million, with growth still accelerating. Gross margin is 55.9%, making it one of the few small and mid-cap companies in the optical module supply chain with stable high margins. Serenity includes it in analog/mixed-signal IC and optical module chains, positioning it as an invisible supplier of tools. EBC analysts claim it is "the cleanest mid-cap choice for investors who want optical exposure but do not want to bear pure播 fragility."

DSP Chips: AVGO, MRVL, CRDO

A chip in an 800G optical module accounts for 30-40% of the cost, and its profits far exceed those of the whole module. Often, it is the DSP companies that make the real money, not the optical module companies. This layer is the most "semiconductor-like" segment of the optical module supply chain, with the competitive landscape determined by SerDes technology accumulation and customer certification barriers.

AVGO

Broadcom is the absolute ruler of optical module DSP chips and also the largest player in CPO switch shipments. AVGO currently has a market cap of about $1.5 trillion, with a stock price of $487.

Almost all high-end 800G and 1.6T solutions cannot bypass Broadcom's PAM4 DSP and SerDes, establishing a clear market dominance. Simultaneously, they are the most active promoter of CPO, having shipped over 50,000 Tomahawk 5 Kaili CPO switches throughout 2025. The third-generation Tomahawk 6 Davisson switch has a switching capacity of 102.4 Tbps, making it the largest player in terms of shipments in the CPO field.

Serenity lists AVGO as a downstream supply chain reference alongside NVDA and MRVL but notes it is not his primary focus on "small-cap bottlenecks." Its size limits elasticity, serving as the "keystone" of this supply chain.

MRVL

Marvell is the company mentioned by Jensen Huang at the Computex event, which surged 32.52% in a single day to set a new record high. MRVL currently has a market cap of about $250 billion, with a stock price of $290.79.

After acquiring Inphi in 2021, Marvell's strength in optical module DSP significantly increased; many of the "brains" behind 800G modules are powered by Marvell DSP. In February 2026, Marvell completed the acquisitions of Celestial AI and XConn, forming a complete technology stack covering silicon photonics, CPO optical engines, and CXL switching, becoming the only company currently hybridizing "custom ASIC + 1.6T optical DSP + silicon photonics + CXL switching" across four dimensions.

At Computex, Jensen Huang referred to Marvell as "the next trillion-dollar company," with a single-day increase of 32.52%, and a market cap exceeding $250 billion. Serenity is actively holding positions and has posted multiple times affirming MRVL's potential, while also signaling valuation and belief risks. Full-year revenue for FY2026 is projected at $8.2 billion, with data center business accounting for over 75%. Revenues from the custom ASIC business are expected to exceed $10 billion in FY2029, with FY2028 revenue goals set at $16.5 billion. In the short term, it has significantly surpassed the consensus target price set by sell-side analysts (average of $222 vs post-surge at $290), which raises concerns about overheating risks.

CRDO

Credo is the leader in the AEC (active cable) sector, cutting into part of the optical module market with copper cables, making it the most complex narrative in the supply chain. CRDO currently has a market cap of about $60-80 billion, with a stock price of $226.

The most prominent product is the purple AEC (active cable), which uses copper cables to provide low-latency short-distance connections and directly cuts into part of the pluggable optical module market. The core logic is that not all short-distance connections require optics, with AEC offering a dual advantage in cost and latency in specific scenarios. FY2026 Q2 revenue reached $26.8 million, exploding 272% year-on-year, with a rise of over 120% year-to-date. Serenity includes it in the interconnect/switching chain, positioning it as high elastic but with a complex narrative. The coexistence of potential disruption and vulnerability makes it the most complex narrative target in this supply chain.

Complete Optical Modules and OEMs: AAOI, FN

This layer is the most familiar track for the market and also the part with the most intense competition and price war pressures. Companies that can succeed here either have vertical integration with upstream components (Coherent, Lumentum) or extreme manufacturing efficiency.

AAOI

AAOI is the fastest pure-play target for the shipment of 800G and 1.6T optical modules, and it is also one of Serenity's most frequent picks, with over 123 public tweets. AAOI currently has a market cap of about $12-15 billion, with a stock price of $197.

This is also one of the few pure optical module companies in the U.S., with the core logic being that 800G shipments are the purest and fastest. In 2026, they secured over $200 million in major orders (including from AWS, Microsoft, and other large cloud providers), with an annual revenue target exceeding $1 billion. Year-to-date, the stock has surged about 441%, making it the highest gainer in the entire optical module sector.

The price of high elasticity is high concentration: revenue sources are concentrated on a few oversized clients, and any changes in order rhythm will severely reflect on the stock price. It is suitable for short-term trading but not for long-term holding.

FN

Fabrinet is the only large-scale player in the optical OEM field; regardless of who wins in the entire industry, it will benefit. FN currently has a market cap of about $24 billion, with a stock price of $654.

This expresses the optical OEM logic in the clearest terms. A large proportion of the products from optical device manufacturers like LITE and COHR are manufactured by Fabrinet in Bangkok, Thailand; it does not bet on a single technology pathway, acting as a beta amplifier for the entire industry's expansion. Pluggable modules, CPOs, and OCS all require precise optical packaging, and there are only enough large-scale OEMs in the precise optical packaging field, which is Fabrinet.

FY2026 Q3 revenues and EPS set historical records, with Q4 revenue guidance of $1.25 to $1.29 billion. The stock has increased around 150% over the year, showing low volatility, making it suitable for foundational allocations.

Optical Networking Equipment and Next-Generation Materials: NOK, LWLG

NOK

Nokia is the second leading player most easily overlooked in this wave of Computex sentiment, covering both DCI and AI backbone networks after acquiring Infinera. NOK currently has a market cap of about $90 billion, with a stock price of $16.25.

Serenity has mentioned NOK multiple times, discussing its connections with policies and supply chains, as well as the product layout after acquiring Infinera. After the acquisition, Nokia became one of the few suppliers in the optical network equipment market that simultaneously covers both "DCI data center interconnect" and "AI backbone networks."

In Q1 2026, Nokia's optical network business grew 20% year-on-year, AI & Cloud related sales increased by 49%, and Q1 profits surged 54%, with the stock price reaching a 16-year high. New product lines include 1.6T coherent pluggable modules and compact amplifiers for multi-fiber applications, actively securing DCI orders from large-scale cloud providers. With a market cap of about $26 billion, it is a relatively undervalued second leader in this field and an easily ignored target in the Computex trend.

LWLG

Lightwave Logic is the smallest by market cap, most cutting-edge in narrative, and riskiest target on this list, betting on electro-optic polymers to become standard materials for the next generation of silicon photonic modulators. LWLG currently has a market cap of about $1.7 billion, with a stock price of $12.67.

LWLG is not an optical module company; it focuses on the next-generation modulator materials in silicon photonics—electro-optic polymers (EO Polymer).

Traditional silicon-based modulators have bandwidths of 40-50GHz, whereas LWLG's polymer modulator targets specifications above 110GHz, supporting 400G/lane, representing a 2-3 generation leap compared to existing technologies. In March 2026, LWLG signed an agreement with Tower Semiconductor to integrate its polymer modulator solutions into Tower's silicon photonic PDK, meaning that any customers using Tower's production line can directly utilize LWLG's material solutions. Currently, four Fortune 500 companies are engaged in Stage 3 prototype development, including a collaboration with a second global Fortune 500 client to develop a 400Gb/s CPO solution, with commercialization supply agreements expected to be established by 2027. PhotonCap (reportedly Serenity's optical engineering research account) has written an in-depth analysis of LWLG's collaboration with Tower.

The logic: If EO polymer becomes the standard modulator material in silicon photonics, LWLG's IP licensing model will be a high-leverage winner. However, there is currently no substantive revenue, making it suitable for ultra-high-risk positions and not ideal as a core holding.

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