This is an "informal" column from the Odaily editorial team. The author shares immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, trending events, and their nuanced details; discusses investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being validated—they may not be direct wealth secrets, but could simply be questions themselves; shares observations obtained during exchanges with industry practitioners; and provides materials that genuinely enhance our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial team members, and it does not accept any form of commercial advertisements nor constitutes investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is merely to expand perspectives and supplement sources of information, rather than to create consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram group, official X account) for discussions, inquiries, and light-hearted banter.

Wenser (@wenser2010)

Introduction: A junior who adds tea, crypto soy sauce party, media observer

Sharing: 1. BTC is down but I haven't shorted, as I feel there will still be a small rebound; a smooth decline should begin around mid-July, as there isn't the institutional buying pressure like last year's DAT wave. Currently, I am buying a small amount, investing regularly.

2. SpaceX IPO is tentatively scheduled for next week, valued at 1.75 trillion; Polymarket is preparing to cash out related to SpaceX; the commercial aerospace stock sector is expected to shift from benefits to drawbacks, does RKLB need to be monitored for risk?

3. With the World Cup approaching, the odds for championship predictions look good. I currently have orders for France and Spain, and may consider buying more accordingly. https://polymarket.com/zh/event/world-cup-winner

4. It is recommended to pay attention to the "Jensen Huang sector," details can be found in the weekly released "Coin Stock Barometer" https://www.odaily.news/zh-CN/post/5211119

5. Planet Daily has been timely in following stocks like ZEC, HYPE, and BNB lately; those who have kept up are reaping benefits, so it’s suggested to turn on APP notifications and hit the bell icon. Watch Planet Daily, trade global stocks, and enjoy a free life, you deserve it~

Asher (@Asher_0210)

Introduction: Regular routine, long-term investment

Sharing: 1. Regarding the market, plan to start investing regularly in BTC below $50,000 and ETH below $1,100; there is a possibility of a rebound to $72,000 in the short term, but I am not interested in investing or buying the dip at this moment as a long-term investor. If it doesn't go down, I'm fine with that; I originally planned for spot investments without expecting explosive returns, and this portion of investment in BTC and ETH seeks stability; also, I hold several early-stage projects, and if the market warms up, they may gradually issue tokens, which could bring pleasant surprises.

2. Predictive market: The World Cup is coming, major exchanges and the predictive duopoly Polymarket and Kalshi should launch activities this week, focusing on these events.

3. Regarding PUMP, there will be the largest unlocking event on July 14, accounting for 8.25% of the total supply. Although the market is bleak, Pump.fun continues to generate over $900,000 daily. There might be buying opportunities before and after unlocks. Personally, I believe that even with the current “half-dead” state in the crypto space, there remains a chance for hot topics to emerge sporadically in the Meme sector; therefore, I have started to invest in PUMP as the largest Meme launch platform. Additionally, I will write an analysis of PUMP tokens from a supply-demand perspective soon, so stay tuned.

golem (X: @web3_golem)

Introduction: Creative ideas from golem

Sharing: I want to discuss SpaceX's pre-IPO valuation on the Pre IPO platform; I still hold long positions in SPCX. Today's Reuters news stated that SpaceX plans to issue 555.6 million shares at a price of $135 each, which corresponds to a company valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion, meaning the total share count is about 12.963 billion shares. Previously, SpaceX indicated the total share count in its submitted S-1 document to be around 12.5 to 13 billion shares, which aligns with what Reuters mentioned.

Why do I pay attention to SpaceX's total share count? Because the SPCX perpetual contracts on the Pre-IPO platform primarily use a valuation formula of "SPCX current price * estimated share number = SpaceX pre-IPO valuation." Both tradexyz and Binance estimate SpaceX’s total share count to be 11.87 billion shares. If the actual total share count is greater than their estimates, the contract price of SPCX on the platform will be diluted even if the pre-IPO valuation remains unchanged, which explains why SPCX's pre-IPO contracts dropped over 3% this morning.

This isn’t about valuation collapse, but rather the market is autonomously pricing based on SpaceX’s actual share count, deviating from the estimated shares set by the Pre IPO platform. As for the significant difference between the platform's estimated shares and SpaceX’s actual total share count, neither tradexyz nor Binance has taken action yet. Binance even limited itself by stating that they reserve the right to adjust the contract amount of the Pre IPO perpetual contracts based on actual share counts when they launched the SPCX pre-IPO contract.

In summary, this situation is extremely unfavorable for ordinary investors, as we have to contend with both the actual market value of SpaceX's IPO and the rules of these Pre IPO platforms. If when listed, the pre-IPO valuation matches the actual market value closely, but due to differences in total share counts, the SPCX contract price collapses, who will bear the investor's losses?

The Pre IPO perpetual contracts in the US stock market are a newly expanded phenomenon in this round, but there are still many rough problems that need to be discussed and resolved in practical operations.

Nanzhi (X: @Assassin_Malvo)

Introduction: Together suffocating for the dream

Sharing: 1. The entire AI hardware supply chain has been thoroughly excavated, with targets having no Alpha, only Beta, differentiated only by size.

2. The entire supply chain is short, short, short, and the performance cannot be falsified; financial reports will only become more appealing, so the question returns to whether the growth rate can increasingly exceed expectations.

3. Exited from MRVL midway, reflecting that I underestimated everyone's demand and imagination for dreams and emotions.

4. Returning to point 1, looking at medium-term emotions, targets driven by dreams will only accelerate instead of "sell the news."

5. The key personal plan for dreaming—when will the top model's token drop to a bargain price.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。