Our new report "State of Token Markets" is live!

Most tokens spend their lifetime below launch price.

Across 540+ tokens launched since 2020, the average token spent 70% of its life below launch.

Tokens launched at inflated FDVs with minimal float, which handed the initial pop to insiders and farmers. The typical token underperformed BTC by 7% per unlock. By the tenth unlock that underperformance had compounded to -47%.

Now the model is shifting. Hyperliquid routes 97% of protocol fees into HYPE buybacks. Uniswap voted in December to burn $600M of supply and flip its fee switch, with the burn sized to match the fees holders would have received since 2018.

But buybacks alone aren't enough. Jupiter ran a similar program but had $3.78 in unlocks for every $1 bought back. Hyperliquid has been the outlier since no insider supply was fighting the bid. Buybacks only matter when supply discipline matches them.

Revenue alone doesn't guarantee market cap growth. Pump runs one of the largest onchain buyback programs but that hasn’t translated into durable token performance.

A revenue-weighted portfolio of the top 10 protocols by revenue returned 30% since January 2025 while BTC was down 17%.

The market is now paying for real cash flow.

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