Good evening everyone, I am Xin Ya, let's briefly talk about the recent market situation.

The current sentiment is extremely fearful, everyone on the right side is waiting for a rebound to short, but clearly, the vast majority of people in the market have not entered. And those who tried to short during the rebound got stuck at 71,500. This market has had no protective measures at key levels, which is quite unreasonable.

There are two possible scenarios for the future: the first scenario is that the market will dip slightly downwards before rebounding and then turning down again; this process is uncontrollable.
The other scenario is a slow grind upwards with weak repairs. This process will provide some long positions with opportunities to cut losses, although there are risks, in this context, the risks are relatively low. There will be fluctuations in areas where right-side shorts want to enter but cannot, which is often a pattern in a frustrating market. If you have seen others manipulate the market, you would understand.

This type of market exhausts everyone's capital, preventing anyone from making easy profits. The rebound is very weak, almost nonexistent, and the continuation of the oppression is similarly poor.

Let's first talk about Ethereum. In the morning session, after retracing to the lower Bollinger Band around 1,960, it rebounded to around 2,010 but faced resistance again. There were five consecutive hourly red candlesticks with a lowest spike at 1,966 before bouncing back, and the bounce did not reach the midpoint of the hourly Bollinger Band. At 8 AM, a four-hour hammer candlestick was closed with a long shadow, and there were four consecutive hourly red candlesticks. Throughout this process, Bitcoin continuously broke lower, but Ethereum did not break the previous low, indicating a large divergence.

Currently, Ethereum's one-hour EMA120 is around 2,010, which has a certain pressure effect. We have marked the cross star at 1,980 from 3 PM as a point of divergence. Market conflicts may unfold around this level.

There are many possibilities structurally. The fluctuation range can expand to 1,940-2,020. The risk-reward ratio and risks of going long during a rebound are equally high. The bigger the storm, the more valuable the fish; make your own choices. The difficulty of the market lies in Bitcoin's bottom formation, while Ethereum provides false cooperation and truly holds strong.

Future market structure depends on the strength of the rebound; if the rebound is weak, it will be handled around the fluctuations, but if the rebound has pushing power, left-side shorts are likely to get trapped. The risks are high no matter how one operates, so it may be better to observe. The range of 1,965-1,996 may become a tightly fluctuating area. Extend your recovery by 20 points, and try to handle it frequently with long positions. After holding for so long, it’s better to release early.

Alright, let's talk about Bitcoin. In fact, once these two charts are released, Bitcoin's structure, including important positions, has already become quite clear. Below, the support levels to consider are 68,500 and 66,800. Above, pay attention to 71,500, while below, focus on 68,500 and 65,800.

Reaching this point, the divergence points on both sides are basically no longer close. Currently, the middle of the one-hour Bollinger Band is around 70,500, and the one-hour EMA30 is around 71,000. It may start to rebound from 68,500 and then test again, or it might grind up directly to test. The possibility of a plunge you are worried about is actually the smallest.

At that time, going short must consider the market sentiment; after touching those levels, it is easier to evolve into a fluctuating structure. Incomplete unilateral liquidation will torment the market; I hope you get accustomed to it. Prioritize handling rebounds, as risks for left-side shorts are actually increasing. I have been there, and I know.

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