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BTC current price 70800, the intraday low has just reached around 70100, and the key support has been declared broken.ETF has seen large net outflows for three consecutive weeks, with a single-week outflow of 1.44 billion dollars last week, continuously fleeing for ten days since mid-May, totaling nearly 3 billion dollars. Negative news from abroad is also coming in, Japanese bond yields hitting a new high since 1996, with a 70%-80% probability of interest rate hikes on June 16; US bond yields stabilizing at 4.5%, the strengthening dollar continually suppressing crypto assets.
Multiple time-frame bearish resonance, weekly five-wave decline accelerating, daily chart breaking below 72000 Fibonacci, moving averages, and channel triple support, 4-hour continuous bearish candles with increasing volume, rebound highs continuously declining, 72500 breaks turning support into resistance.
On the funding side, the entire market ETP has seen outflows exceeding 4.21 billion in three weeks,BlackRock IBIT has seen large outflows in a single day; combined with the approaching interest rate hike in Japan and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East raising oil prices and inflation, multiple factors are continuously suppressing the market.
In terms of levels, 72000-73000 has turned into strong resistance, short-term support at 70000-71000, with 68950 being an important Fibonacci support, and the medium-term target is 65000.
Operations should be focused on watching for a rebound to short; if a rebound occurs at 72000-73000, take short positions in batches as stagnation is seen, with a stop loss at 74000 and targets at 70000→68950→65000. Do not attempt bottom-fishing in the short term; only consider small long positions if a 4-hour bullish signal appears in the range of 68500-69500. Continue holding the medium-term short position, keeping position size ≤25%, and leverage at 2-5 times to control risk.
Avoid blindly bottom-fishing if 72000 is broken; June 16's interest rate hike + Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaching are dual negatives, all rebounds are opportunities to add to short positions, just hold with the trend.
Public Account: Big Bull Market Commentary
Disclaimer: The content is only a personal review of the market and does not constitute any investment advice; market fluctuations are large, and profits and losses are to be borne by yourself.
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