1. Macroeconomics and Traditional Financial Markets

1. AI Narrative Strengthening: Anthropic Files Secretly, Alphabet Ups Its Game, Tech Stocks Hit Historic Highs Again

This week, the three major U.S. stock indices continued to rise, maintaining a strong trend. The Nasdaq composite index rose by 1.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.13%, and the S&P 500 index went up by 0.81%. The S&P 500 has risen about 16% since April, marking nine consecutive weeks of gains and setting the record for the longest consecutive rise in 2023. AI remains the core driving force, with the chip and storage sectors continuing to lead the way, and the narrative of an "arms race" in AI infrastructure continues to receive positive feedback from the capital markets.

This week's most notable event was Anthropic's formal secret filing of the S-1 application to the SEC on June 1, targeting a valuation of approximately $965 billion, with a potential IPO fundraising size of up to $75 billion. If it successfully goes public, it could become one of the largest IPOs in history. Meanwhile, Alphabet announced a new round of AI infrastructure financing plan worth up to $80 billion, with Berkshire Hathaway participating with $10 billion. These signals further reinforce market expectations regarding the long-term expansion space for AI infrastructure. However, the potential liquidity siphoning effect from the Anthropic IPO has begun to draw market attention. Although the company's annual revenue has exceeded $47 billion, it is still in a highly expansionary phase, with the current valuation essentially relying on deep discounting of future revenues from AI applications. If the post-listing market capitalization does not meet expectations or if it impacts public market liquidity concurrently with SpaceX, the pressure for a correction in AI tech stocks will significantly increase.

2. Geopolitics: U.S.-Israel Military Actions Intensify, U.S.-Iran Negotiation Window Remains, Energy Prices Under New Pressure

This week, the geopolitical situation showed signs of divergence. On one hand, Trump stated that U.S.-Iran negotiations are progressing smoothly, and discussions on extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz are ongoing, which has led to a temporary narrowing of market expectations for tails risks of a full-scale conflict in the Middle East. On the other hand, Israel announced an expansion of ground operations in Lebanon, and U.S.-Israeli joint military actions triggered a new round of regional tensions, with Brent crude oil rising approximately 1.3% to around $93 per barrel. The volatility in the energy market reflects the current contradiction in macro pricing: the AI-driven tech investment boom has reduced market fears of a recession, but unstable energy supply, persistent core inflation, and the second downgrade of the Q1 GDP estimate to an annualized 2.5% still leave the Federal Reserve with limited room for rate cuts. Copper prices also increased further due to the approaching U.S. tariff review, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup raising their annual forecast targets one after another.

3. Federal Reserve's New Framework and Interest Rate Expectations: Warsh Officially Takes Office, June FOMC Window Opens

New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in on May 22, and the market views the FOMC meeting on June 17, which he will lead, as a key node for macro pricing in the second half of the year. According to the latest data from CME FedWatch, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate range in June is as high as 99.4%, while the probability for July also reaches 93.0%, indicating extremely limited expectations for a rate cut in the short term. Recently, U.S. Treasury yields have remained high, and the macro financial environment has effectively equated to a "covert rate hike" of about 75 basis points, suppressing valuations of risk assets. Last week, the U.S. dollar index fell to 98.942, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.437%, and gold closed at $4,538, reflecting market pricing for the dual scenarios of "long-term high interest rates + rising demand for safe haven." The upcoming May non-farm payroll data will be a significant variable for validating the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy path.

Additionally, the yen continued to weaken, dropping 1.7% in May and approaching the critical level of 160. The Japanese Ministry of Finance intervened with around $7.36 billion in the past month, but bearish bets on the yen by leveraged funds have risen to the highest level since July 2024. If the Bank of Japan surprises the market with an interest rate hike on June 16, the global arbitrage capital closing effect might marginally tighten liquidity, potentially putting pressure on tech stocks and crypto assets.

2. Cryptocurrency Market

1. Market Overview: BTC Falls Approximately 6% Over the Week, ETF Funds Experience Record Net Outflows

This week, the overall cryptocurrency market continued to correct, showing a clear divergence from new highs in U.S. stocks. At the beginning of the week, BTC opened at around $77,267 and fell to approximately $72,675 by June 1, reflecting a weekly decline of about 6%; ETH also fell by about 4.5%, with the ETH/BTC ratio remaining stable, indicating that the pressure on both assets is similar and not solely due to ETH's independent weakness. The pressure on ETF funds has been particularly pronounced. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has set a record for the longest continuous net outflow since its launch in January 2024, with net outflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $2.8 billion. BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day maximum net outflow of about $528 million, marking its second-largest single-day net outflow since its inception; the Ethereum spot ETF also experienced net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, totaling about $694 million. The market's fear and greed index fell from 39 last week to 29, entering the "fear" zone.

On the derivatives front, BTC open interest fell in tandem with price decreases, with Deribit option skew rising back to around 16%, and put option premiums approaching extreme levels, indicating a noticeable increase in hedging demand. The total market capitalization of stablecoins decreased by approximately $2.758 billion over the past seven days, and on-chain spot purchasing power remains weak. Overall, the Crypto market lacks independent incremental funding drivers and continues to face pressure from institutional funds being diverted to AI tech assets.

2. RWA and Onchain U.S. Stocks: DTCC Connects with Stellar

On May 27, DTCC's DTC announced plans to integrate tokenized asset services with the Stellar public chain, expected to launch in the first half of 2027, covering tokenized issuance, corporate actions processing, and cross-chain interoperability for blue-chip stocks, ETFs, and U.S. Treasury bonds. DTCC handles approximately $47 trillion in securities transactions annually, and its integration with Stellar signifies that tokenized equities are officially entering the core U.S. securities settlement infrastructure rather than remaining on proprietary issuance platforms. As a result, on that day, XLM surged more than 30%, with trading volume skyrocketing over 9 times.

3. Long-term Perspective: MicroStrategy Suspends Coin Purchases, Anthropic IPO May Become a Liquidity Turning Point

This week, developments regarding MicroStrategy are noteworthy. The company sold a small amount of 32 BTC from May 26 to 31 to pay preferred stock dividends while suspending the mechanism for raising funds through ATM market price issuances for purchases, currently holding approximately 843,700 BTC. The shift in company strategy towards debt management includes plans to prioritize repurchase of about $1.5 billion of zero-coupon convertible bonds maturing in 2029, temporarily halting coin acquisition operations. As one of the significant incremental buyers in the crypto market over the past two years, MicroStrategy's slowing pace implies weakened short-term support.

From a broader perspective, Anthropic's official S-1 submission on June 1 and SpaceX's impending large-scale IPO together suggest a potential fundraising scale exceeding $100 billion. Historically, mega IPOs tend to create liquidity siphoning in the secondary market in the short run, and both AI tech stocks and crypto assets, being highly elastic risk assets, will face the pressure of capital being periodically withdrawn. Overall, the current macro suppression in Crypto primarily stems from the continuous strengthening of the AI landscape. In the context of Anthropic, SpaceX, and other high-valuation tech assets impacting public market liquidity one after another, the window for Crypto to strengthen independently remains limited. If an AI bubble phases out in the future, BTC could undergo a significant adjustment, and this window might instead become an opportunity for the formation of a new Crypto cycle bottom.

This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment risks are high; please fully assess your risk tolerance before trading and strictly manage risk controls.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。