Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Wenser (@wenser2010)

"DAT's first stock", "BTC's largest diamond hand" Strategy has started selling coins! According to Strategy, last week they sold 32 bitcoins at an average price of $77,135, earning $2.5 million.

Perhaps influenced by this news, BTC fell below $71,000 last night, currently reported at around $70,560; US stocks closed with cryptocurrency-related stocks mostly declining, Bullish down 7.99%, DeFi Development down 7.97%, Circle down 7.11%, Strategy down 5.85%, Upexi down 5.04%.

Strategy's actions of stopping the purchase of BTC and selling a small amount have further tightened liquidity in the already struggling cryptocurrency market. As major CEXs rush into US stock trading, the cryptocurrency market continues to bleed.

Strategy sells coins: Not the first time, but this time is different

This sale of BTC is not the first time Strategy has sold.

In 2022, due to the collapse of the then second-largest cryptocurrency exchange FTX, the cryptocurrency industry faced a winter, and BTC once fell below $20,000; on December 22, 2022, Strategy sold 704 BTC at a price of $16,776 and quickly repurchased 810 BTC at $16,845 on December 24, 2022.

Strategy's current sale of coins is mainly to repay STRC financing dividends.

As a fixed-income digital credit product launched by Strategy, STRC can be considered its "flagship product." However, after repurchasing $1.5 billion in convertible debt last month, Strategy's cash reserves dropped to about $871 million, covering only about 6 months of its estimated $1.7 billion annual preferred dividend obligations. On May 29, STRC dipped to $97.11, then rebounded to close at $98.57.

When Strategy released its Q1 financial report in early May, it clearly stated: "If convertible bonds are due or redeemed and not converted into common stock, the company may need to sell common stock or Bitcoin to generate sufficient cash to fulfill these obligations." At that time, Strategy's Q1 financial report recorded a net loss of $12.54 billion, almost entirely from the unrealized loss on BTC ($14.46 billion); by the end of Q1, the total cost basis for 818,334 BTC was $61.81 billion, with an average purchase price of about $75,537 per coin. Recommended reading "Strategy Q1 Financial Report: Book Loss of $14.4 Billion, Does Not Rule Out Selling Coins to Pay Interest"

Of course, from a business operation perspective, Strategy's actions are understandable, and Michael Saylor previously stated: "Even if we sell 1 BTC, we will buy 10 to 20 times more." Selling is to buy better. However, from the perspective of industry confidence, this move by Strategy not only temporarily declares that the "DAT treasury model is in a deadlock," but also greatly undermines the enthusiasm for accumulating and buying coins in the cryptocurrency industry, significantly impacting short-term market buying and selling.

After selling 32 BTC this time, Strategy currently still holds 843,706 BTC, worth $60.936 billion, with an average cost price of $75,699, an unrealized loss of $2.932 billion. Last month, thanks to the overall market rebound, Strategy's holdings briefly showed an unrealized gain of $8.2 billion.

Notably, on May 28, Strategy's founder Michael Saylor published an article titled "HODL" (Hold On for Dear Life), urging the market to firmly hold Bitcoin amid the current sluggish market.

The "confused accounts" behind Strategy's coin sale: Polymarket staged the "if the official doesn't say, then it didn't sell" farce

Besides the sale of coins by Strategy itself, the "event determination farce" involving the prediction market Polymarket is also quite humorous.

We previously mentioned in "Strategy Q1 Financial Report: Book Loss of $14.4 Billion, Does Not Rule Out Selling Coins to Pay Interest" that the probability of "Strategy selling BTC before May 31" was only about 40%.

With the end of May, on June 1, Polymarket data showed that the probability of Strategy selling Bitcoin rose from its lowest point of 12% yesterday to 80%, but then fell back to 58%, with the market accumulating over $16.4 million in trading.

However, ultimately this matter was settled with a "no" after Polymarket's official ruling. Polymarket officially stated, "We are aware that there are disputes in this prediction market. If a clarification announcement is needed, it will be issued at 1 PM Eastern Time on June 1; if no statement is issued by then, it means that the Polymarket team no longer provides relevant clarifications. Regardless of whether a clarification content is released, the commission order book will be settled at 1 PM Eastern Time that afternoon."

Since Strategy did not issue an official statement about the coin sale, the event ultimately settled as "Strategy did not sell BTC in May." This again verifies that what is traded in the prediction market is not the "truth of the facts themselves," but rather "events within the rules."

The narrative of BTC as "digital gold" shakes, its "safe haven asset" attribute suffers

After the news of Strategy selling coins was released, economist, gold investment promoter, and cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff stated, "Strategy's selling of 32 bitcoins last week" is a signal that Strategy is transitioning from the "largest buyer of Bitcoin" to the sell side and questioned the sources of future new demand.

Billionaire investor Mark Cuban, who previously viewed BTC as "a superior form of gold," recently also stated that he has sold off most of his Bitcoin holdings due to waning confidence in Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation and geopolitical risks, expressing his disappointment with BTC's "digital gold" narrative.

JPMorgan also previously indicated in its analysis that the "devaluation trading" of gold and BTC is heating up, with investors exiting safe-haven assets.

With the price continually plunging, perhaps BTC and the cryptocurrency market can only wait for the Trump administration to "love crypto once again."

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