Dear friends, I am Sister Qinglan. Today the market sentiment is a bit cold, let’s first look at two major news stories. First, Strategy has sold Bitcoin for the first time, breaking the myth of “never selling coins.” MSTR dropped over 6% in pre-market trading, which directly undermined the confidence of some long-term believers. Second, geopolitical risks are rising, with Iran suspending US-Iran negotiations and threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged, and risk-averse sentiment has broadly suppressed risk assets, with BTC facing obvious short-term pressure. The combination of these two events has made an already weak market worse.
Current price and time
It is now June 1st, 22:21. The latest price for BTC is 71594 USDT. The 24-hour decline is 2.74%, and the fear and greed index is only 29, which falls into the “fear” range. At this position, many people start to panic, but Sister Qinglan wants to say that the more panicked the situation, the more calmly we should look at the data.
Multi-period status overview
First, look at the daily timeframe. MA5 is at 73246, MA10 is at 74774, MA30 is at 77784, and the price of 71594 is below all these moving averages, clearly a bearish arrangement. The MACD's DIF is -1311, DEA is -721, and the histogram is -589. The green bars are still expanding, indicating that the bearish momentum has not exhausted. The RSI is 26.24, close to oversold but not yet extreme.
On the 4-hour level, MA5 is at 72867, MA10 is at 73351, MA30 is at 73562, and the price is also below all the moving averages. The MACD's DIF is -530, DEA is -416, and the histogram is -113. The green bars are shrinking, indicating that the short-term bearish momentum has weakened somewhat, but overall it is still dominated by bears. The RSI is 25.37, which is also in the oversold zone.
On the 1-hour level, MA5 is at 72151, MA10 at 72584, MA30 at 73349, and the price of 71594 is far below these moving averages. The MACD's DIF is -473, DEA is -294, and the histogram is -178. The green bars are still expanding, indicating that the bearish momentum on the 1-hour level is still being released. The RSI is 16.84, already entering a deep oversold area, which needs attention, as there is often a rebound and correction after oversold conditions.
On the 15-minute level, MA5 is at 71680, MA10 at 71902, and MA30 at 72514, with the price struggling below the moving averages. The MACD's DIF is -371, DEA is -312, and the histogram is -58. The green bars are shortening, indicating signs of stabilization on the 15-minute level. The RSI is 19.96, which is also oversold.
Overall, from the daily to the 1-hour timeframe, everything is under a bearish trend, but the short cycles of 15 minutes and 4 hours show some signals of momentum weakening, which may be a precursor to a short-term rebound.
TPV signal verification
Now let’s use the TPV system from Qinglan's cryptocurrency class to verify. The core rule is that the 1-hour EMA55 serves as the boundary between bullish and bearish positions; the current EMA55 is at 73379, while the price of 71594 is far below it, so the trend positioning is in the bearish zone.
First, let’s check the oscillation determination. In the past 8 1-hour candlesticks, the number of times the closing price exceeded EMA55 is 0, the number of crosses is 0, and the distance from the price to EMA55 is 2.43%, which does not meet the oscillation threshold, so currently it is a one-sided bearish trend, not oscillation.
Verification of shorting conditions. First, the price is under pressure below the 1-hour EMA55, with the closing prices of 2 consecutive 1-hour candlesticks below EMA55, which meets this condition and in fact, many more candlesticks have been below it. Second, there is resistance to the pressure, requiring a long upper shadow or a top formation, but the current price is continuously declining without obvious resistance patterns, more of a direct breakdown. Third, the rebound is weak; the MACD bars have shrunk for 2 consecutive periods, but the 1-hour MACD bars are still expanding and have not shrunk, so this condition is not met. Overall, the shorting conditions are not fully satisfied since momentum is still being released and has not exhausted.
Verification of long conditions. First, the price needs to stabilize above the 1-hour EMA55, which is completely not fulfilled as the price is far below EMA55. Second, support stabilization requires a long lower shadow or bottom formation; there are signs of stabilization at the 15-minute level, but there has not yet been a clear bottom formation at the 1-hour level. Third, bearish momentum has exhausted; the MACD bars have shrunk for 2 consecutive periods, but the 1-hour MACD bars are still expanding, which does not meet this condition. Therefore, the long conditions are also not met.
The TPV system currently indicates a clear bearish trend, but the shorting momentum is still being released and no exhaustion signals have appeared, so it is not advised to chase short positions or bottom-fish. It is suggested to wait for a rebound opportunity after momentum exhausts or look for second shorting opportunities after a rebound meets resistance.
On-chain/fundamental
In terms of on-chain data, the fear and greed index is 29, falling into the fear zone, indicating extreme pessimism in market sentiment. Bitcoin's market share is 56.92%, still at a high level, indicating funds are flowing from altcoins to Bitcoin for safety, but Bitcoin itself is also declining, showing overall market funds are flowing out. Digital asset funds have seen an outflow of $1.67 billion, marking the second largest record this year, with outflows occurring for three consecutive weeks, which is a substantial bearish signal for capital. Additionally, a whale opened a long position of $12.16 million in BTC with 40x leverage, targeting a profit of $73,650, which is a short-term bullish signal, but the risk of high leverage is significant and should not be relied upon as the main basis.
Key support and resistance levels
The current most important support level is the $70,000 round number; if it is lost, analysts warn it may drop to $65,000. The upper pressure levels are: the first at 73379 where the 1-hour EMA55 is situated, the second at 72867 where the 4-hour MA5 is located, and the third at 73246 where the daily MA5 is positioned. If the short-term rebound cannot break through 73379, the bearish trend will not change.
Trading thoughts
Direction: Look bearish short-term, but wait for opportunities to short after a rebound meets resistance, do not chase short positions.
Entry conditions: If the price rebounds to the 72800-73300 area, a long upper shadow or top formation on the 1-hour level appears, and the MACD bars start to shrink, with the RSI rising from the oversold zone before turning downward again, a light short position can be considered.
Stop-loss level: Set above 73800, which is to break through and stabilize above the 1-hour EMA55.
Target levels: First target is 70000, second target is 68000; if it breaks below 70000, it can be looked at towards 65000.
If the price directly breaks below 70000, do not chase short, wait for stabilization signals. If the price rebounds and breaks through 73379 while stabilizing, the bearish outlook is invalidated and one should switch to a wait-and-see approach.
Risk warning
Geopolitical risks and capital outflows are the biggest uncertainties currently, and any sudden news could lead to intense fluctuations. Be sure to control positions and operate lightly.
Follow Qinglan's cryptocurrency classroom for more trading opportunities! Welcome to visit the official website www.qinglan.org
Backtesting data will be automatically displayed below.
📊 Qinglan TPV trading strategy backtest reference
🕒 Last backtest time 06-01 07:00:02
Total analysis: 1933 Backtest: 1629 Accuracy rate: 67.5% (1099/1629)
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