Performance of the Cryptocurrency Market
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.47 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59.6%, amounting to $1.47 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $320.7 billion, a decrease of 0.68% over the last 7 days, with USDT representing 58.82%.
CoinMarketCap shows that among the top 200 projects, a small portion increased while most decreased, including: BTC down 4.83% over 7 days, ETH down 5.3% over 7 days, SOL down 5.6% over 7 days, HYPE up 4.95% over 7 days, and XLM up 42.25% over 7 days.
This week, the net outflow of the Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States was $1.415 billion; the net outflow of the Ethereum spot ETF in the United States was $240 million.
Market Forecast (June 1 - June 6):
The RSI index is 42.9 (neutral, lower than last week), the Fear and Greed Index is 24 (fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is 36 (neutral).
BTC: $72,000-76,500 (volatile downtrend)
ETH: $1,930-2,100 (weak volatility)
SOL: $78-86 (neutral weak)
Risk Warning:
Continuous outflow of Bitcoin ETF funds → Key level $70,000
Secondary liquidation after $7.5 billion options expire → Key level $75,000 (options pain point)
Ceasefire agreement not implemented or unexpected reversal → Key level $71,700
Understanding the Present
Dual blows from macro headwinds and geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin loses the $75,000 level
This week, the market experienced a comprehensive sell-off. Influenced by the United States' April PCE price index rising to 3.8% (far exceeding the 2% target), market expectations for interest rate cuts within the year have largely dissipated, with the probability of rate hikes increasing to 60%. Meanwhile, military actions by the U.S. against Iran have continued to escalate; although a 60-day ceasefire framework agreement was announced on May 28, Trump has not signed it, and the situation remains unclear. Under multiple negative factors, Bitcoin broke below the $75,000 support level, reaching a low of approximately $72,600, down more than 11% from this month's peak, and down 42% from its historical high.
Historic fund outflow from Bitcoin ETF in May
Institutional fund withdrawal has become the core driver of the market decline this week. Data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a cumulative net outflow of approximately $2.07 billion in May, setting a record for the highest single-month outflow in 2026. On May 27 alone, 11 ETFs saw a net outflow of $733 million, with BlackRock's IBIT experiencing a single-day outflow of $528 million, marking the second largest redemption record in the product's history. JPMorgan analysts pointed out that this is not simply a fund rotation but a signal of an overall retreat from "devaluation trades."
DTCC partners with Stellar, a deep integration of traditional financial infrastructure with public chains
On May 27, the U.S. Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) announced plans to integrate its DTC tokenization services with the Stellar public chain, expected to launch in the first half of 2027. This means traditional assets like stocks, ETFs, and U.S. Treasuries will be able to conduct tokenized trading on the public chain. Encouraged by this news, Stellar (XLM) surged over 26% in a single day, becoming the strongest performing mainstream cryptocurrency of the week. This marks the first direct connection between a key U.S. financial clearing infrastructure and a public chain, viewed by the market as a milestone event for institutional adoption.
CME launches 24/7 Bitcoin trading, eliminating "weekend gaps"
On May 29, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched 24/7 trading services for Bitcoin futures and options. This change ends the technical "weekend gap" that has existed in CME Bitcoin contracts for years, indicating that institutional investors will also have complete pricing and hedging tools over the weekend, which, in the long run, will enhance institutional participation and improve market continuity.
AI sector absorbs overflow funds, NEAR, WLD and other tokens rise against the trend
Against the backdrop of Bitcoin fund outflows, AI concept tokens have become the destination for fund migration. This week, tokens such as NEAR Protocol, Worldcoin (WLD), and Render (RNDR) experienced a collective surge. Analysts believe that the "old money" flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs has not left the market but has instead moved to AI and infrastructure sectors with both "strong narrative consensus" and "low price elasticity." NEAR has seen a 30-day increase of up to 85.67%, with its "chain abstraction" and AI agent layer narratives attracting substantial attention.
$7.5 billion options contracts expire, market faces Gamma squeeze
On May 29, Deribit exchange faced the expiration of approximately $7.5 billion in nominal value of cryptocurrency options, with Bitcoin options accounting for $6.21 billion, with a major pain point at $75,000. With the current Bitcoin price (approximately $72,700) far below the pain point, many call option holders face a value of zero, triggering a new round of Gamma squeeze and seller hedging pressure, further exacerbating downward volatility in the market.
VanEck launches spot BNB ETF, crypto ETP products continue to expand
Despite the overall gloomy market sentiment, the pace of institutional product innovation has not stopped. Asset management firm VanEck launched a spot BNB ETF on NASDAQ, offering compliant exposure to BNB for traditional investors. Meanwhile, Deutsche Börse's Xetra platform also listed several crypto ETP products from Amundi, Franklin Templeton, and others on May 28.
UK sanctions cryptocurrency exchanges for the first time, regulatory crackdown on Russian entities
On May 26, the UK government released a new round of sanctions against Russia, listing exchanges such as Huobi, Exmo, and Bitpapa as sanctioned entities due to their suspected financial services to sanctioned Russian entities. According to Elliptic analysis, this marks the first time the UK has taken such sanction actions against cryptocurrency exchanges based on relevant regulations, indicating that regulators are taking more direct measures to combat the use of crypto assets to evade sanctions.
Supreme People's Court to study judgment rules for virtual currency cases
In terms of China's regulatory landscape, the Supreme People's Court stated at a press conference on May 27 that it will study the judgment rules for new types of cases involving virtual currencies, cross-border finance, and will soon formulate judicial interpretations related to insider trading and market manipulation civil compensation. This statement reflects a systematic focus on legal issues related to crypto assets at the judicial level, aiming to provide clearer guidance for future potential judicial practices.
Google engineer involved in Polymarket insider trading case
This week saw a widely discussed ethical incident in the industry. A Google engineer was sued for allegedly insider trading on the prediction market Polymarket. This case highlights the legal challenges that the emerging field of prediction markets faces in terms of information asymmetry and fairness, and may prompt regulators to further clarify compliance requirements for decentralized prediction platforms.
Macroeconomics
On May 28, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 23 (in ten thousand): previous value 20.9, expected 21.1, reported 21.5.
On May 28, the annual core PCE price index in the U.S. for April was 3.3%, expected 3.30%, previous value 3.20%. The April core PCE price index is the highest level since November 2023, meeting market expectations.
On May 27, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is currently reported at 97.3%, with a 2.7% chance of a 25 basis point hike.
ETF
According to statistics, from May 25 to May 29, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow was $1.415 billion; as of May 29, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $26.531 billion, currently holding $10.745 billion, IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $60.025 billion. The total market value of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is $98.856 billion.
U.S. Ethereum spot ETF net outflow was $240 million.
Foreseeing the Future
Industry Conferences
Blockchain Week Istanbul 2026 will be held in Turkey from June 2 to 3.
Proof of Talk 2026 will take place in Paris, France on June 2 to 3, 2026.
IVS2026 KYOTO will be held in Kyoto, Japan from July 1 to 3, 2026.
WebX 2026 will be held in Tokyo, Japan from July 13 to 14, 2026.
Significant Events
A legislative proposal in Florida, USA plans to allow state government funds and pension funds to invest in Bitcoin and related ETFs, intended to take effect on July 1, 2026.
The U.S. House Oversight Committee has launched an investigation into insider trading issues concerning Kalshi and Polymarket, requiring both companies to submit relevant documents explaining their measures regarding identity verification, geographic restriction enforcement, and abnormal transaction monitoring, with a deadline of June 5.
SoftBank Group plans to issue subordinated bonds worth 260 billion yen to raise funds, with pricing scheduled for June 5.
Token Unlocking
Sui (SUI) will unlock 14.35 million tokens on June 1, valued at approximately $13.31 million, accounting for 0.36% of the circulating supply.
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock 44.58 million tokens on June 1, valued at approximately $2.14 million, accounting for 3.14% of the circulating supply.
EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.81 million tokens on June 1, valued at approximately $8.10 million, accounting for 6.5% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research serves as the core research organization of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tool. Through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports," we analyze market trends for you; leveraging our exclusive column "Selected Hot Coins" (AI + expert dual filtration) to identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also connect with you live through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries inherent risks. We strongly advise investors to make investments based on a complete understanding of these risks, and under a strict risk management framework, to ensure fund safety.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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