1. U.S. Compliance Milestone: Coinbase/Kalshi Launches First Domestic Compliant Perpetual Contract

Event: On May 30, Coinbase, a leading compliant exchange in the U.S., received approval from the CFTC and officially launched the country's first compliant Bitcoin perpetual contract in collaboration with the prediction market platform Kalshi, offering up to 50 times leverage, available to both individual and institutional investors in the U.S.
Market Impact:

- Short-term: Slightly boosts market risk appetite, with related assets like BNB and COIN stocks experiencing rises, but limited impact on BTC/ETH spot prices
- Medium to long-term: The U.S. crypto derivatives market officially steps out of the regulatory gray area, which may attract substantial domestic institutional funds in the future, reshaping global crypto market liquidity and pricing power
- Risk: The CFTC has clearly stated that future new perpetual contract products will need to be reviewed on a case-by-case basis, and stricter leverage restrictions and investor access requirements may be implemented

2. Continued Macroeconomic Headwinds: Full-Year Rate Cut Expectations for 2026 Completely Vanished

Event: The U.S. April core PCE inflation data was 3.2%, significantly above the Fed's 2% policy target. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market now bets the probability of zero rate cuts for the entirety of 2026 has risen to 66.9%, with even a 20.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike.
Market Impact:

- The high interest rate environment continues to suppress valuations of non-interest-bearing crypto assets, with Bitcoin spot ETFs experiencing net outflows for several consecutive days, losing about $635 million in a single week
- U.S. Treasury yields remain at around 5%, with funds flowing from risk assets to safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries
- Institutional investors' risk-averse sentiment has increased, reducing their allocation to crypto assets

3. Derivatives Event: $6 Billion in BTC Options Settlement Completed

Event: Last Friday (May 29), approximately $6 billion worth of Bitcoin options and $2 billion worth of Ethereum options were concentrated in settlement, with the maximum pain point for Bitcoin options at $75,000, and for Ethereum at $2,200.
Market Impact:

- Market makers actively suppressed the price before settlement, causing BTC to fall from the $77,000 range to the $73,000 range
- Post-settlement, short-term selling pressure was gradually released, and the market entered a narrow range correction
- Trading volume continues to shrink, with both sides exhibiting strong wait-and-see sentiment, making it difficult to establish a one-way trend

4. Industry Headwinds: Core Ethereum Developers Depart en Masse

Event: Over the past four months, eight key R&D and management personnel from the Ethereum Foundation have left, including several key figures involved in Ethereum protocol upgrades.
Market Impact:

- The market is concerned that the future protocol iteration progress of Ethereum may slow down, especially the highly anticipated "quantum resistance upgrade," which may be delayed
- Institutions have begun to reduce their holdings of ETH assets, with Harvard University having fully liquidated its Ethereum ETF position
- ETH's performance continues to lag behind BTC, with Bitcoin’s market cap share rebounding to over 60%

Bitcoin (BTC):

- 4-hour level: Price continues to be pressured below the short-term moving averages, with the moving averages in a bearish arrangement; the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with price operating below the mid-band; MACD bearish momentum is slightly converging, but no bullish reversal signal has formed; RSI remains in the low area around 40
- Key Support: $72,900-$73,000 (strong short-term support), $72,300-$72,500 (medium-term support)
- Key Resistance: $74,400-$74,800 (strong short-term resistance), $76,000 (medium-term resistance)

Ethereum (ETH):

- 4-hour level: Also in a weak fluctuation pattern, with rebound strength weaker than BTC; RSI is stuck around 45, with bullish and bearish forces relatively balanced
- Key Support: $1,980-$2,000 (strong short-term support), $1,900-$1,950 (medium-term support)
- Key Resistance: $2,080-$2,100 (strong short-term resistance), $2,200 (medium-term resistance)

Market Sentiment

- Fear and Greed Index: 23 (extreme fear), slightly rebounding from yesterday, but still in the extreme fear area
- Contract Market: The overall contract long-short ratio is 0.92, with shorts slightly in the lead; over the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across networks have accounted for about $120 million, with long liquidations around $72 million and short liquidations around $48 million


Overall Strategic Thinking

The current market is in a weak oscillating pattern dominated by macroeconomic headwinds, with limited impact from positive news, and trading volume is shrinking, with both bulls and bears hesitant to take bold action. It is recommended to trade with light positions, focusing on short-term and high win-rate strategies, avoiding chasing prices and heavy trading.

Bitcoin (BTC) Contract Strategy

- Mainly bearish outlook: When rebounding to the $74,400-$74,800 range encounters resistance, light short positions can be established, with stop-loss set above $75,200, targeting $73,500-$73,000
- Cautiously bullish: Only when the price breaks through and stabilizes above $75,000 can light long positions be considered, with stop-loss set below $74,500
- Extreme situation: If the price breaks below the $72,900 support level with increased volume, one can chase the short, targeting $72,300-$72,000

Ethereum (ETH) Contract Strategy

- Following BTC's trend: ETH's trend is highly correlated with BTC, but overall weaker; it is advised to primarily follow BTC signals, using ETH as a secondary indicator
- Bearish outlook: When rebounding to the $2,080-$2,100 range meets resistance, light short positions can be established, with stop-loss set above $2,130, targeting $2,030-$2,000
- Buying on support: If the price falls back to the $1,980-$2,000 range for support, light long positions can be attempted, with stop-loss set below $1,960

Key Focus for Tomorrow
1. U.S. May ISM Manufacturing PMI Data (June 1, 22:00 Beijing Time)
2. Remarks from several Fed officials
3. Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows
4. Official statement from the Ethereum Foundation regarding personnel departures
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