Whale blood loss turns to profit and the mystery of Satoshi Nakamoto: an on-chain certainty and a gamble of human nature.

CN
1 hour ago

Around May 31, 2026, a whale marked as Loracle by the on-chain monitoring platform Onchain Lens suddenly became a "live textbook" that everyone was watching: on the HyperLiquid ecosystem token HYPE, the cumulative losses of its short positions have exceeded 36 million USD. However, after suffering massive losses, it successively closed short positions in BTC, LIT, TON, VVV, etc., leaving about 1.518 million HYPE shorts not fully cleared. This position, worth approximately 105 million USD, is being gradually unwound; at the same time, the account opened new leveraged long positions: a 10x long in ZEC, a 5x long in ASTER, and a 5x long in TON. The overall positioning shifted from systemic shorting to leveraged long positions. In the face of HYPE, which is characterized by severe price fluctuations and frequent short squeezes, it seems like a decisive turn made with real money. Almost simultaneously, at the other end of the crypto world, the drama surrounding "who exactly is Satoshi Nakamoto" reignited: over the past two years, an HBO documentary, a deep report in The New York Times, and a narrative film have successively offered their "answers," pointing fingers at four seasoned industry figures - Peter Todd, Adam Back, Len Sassaman, and Hal Finney. Yet none have provided evidence that can be replicated on the levels of cryptography or on-chain, as summed up by Bitcoin.com - "3 investigations, 4 suspects, 0 evidence." One is a whale with a precisely traced behavioral trajectory on-chain but no visible human face, and the other is an anonymous creator shrouded in the entire industry since the genesis block, together forming a long-term gamble on certainty and uncertainty.

36 Million USD Evaporated: The Collapse of HYPE Shorts

According to Onchain Lens and multiple Chinese media outlets, the address marked as Loracle is one of the most typical large short clues on the HyperLiquid ecosystem token HYPE. This clue is very specific: on the same asset, cumulative losses have exceeded 36 million USD, a number that can be confirmed on-chain at the single address level. After incurring such massive losses, approximately 1.518 million HYPE shorts remain visible on-chain, amounting to a nominal value of about 105 million USD at the time, having only entered the stage of "gradual liquidation" rather than immediately exiting the market.

Reintegrating this funding line into the market backdrop makes it even more striking - HYPE itself is in the midst of the HyperLiquid ecosystem's upsurge, recently experiencing significant price swings, with multiple instances of short sellers being squeezed out. In other words, Loracle chose to bet on an asset that has been repeatedly validated as “not friendly to shorts,” yet endured a loss of 36 million USD while still holding substantial shorts, which at least exposes its risk appetite far exceeding that of ordinary traders and hints at an unbroken bullish expectation: either firmly believing a sharp correction will eventually arrive or viewing this position as a hedge in the portfolio - but these motivations currently remain at the level of external speculation. As of May 31, 2026, the only unemotional fact on-chain is that this HYPE short, which once clashed hard against market trends, is slowly retreated at the cost of brutal losses.

After Closing Four Major Short Positions, Loracle Fully Turns Long

According to Onchain Lens, in the backdrop of massive unrealized losses from HYPE shorts, Loracle did not choose to “double down,” but adjusted its strategy along a different path: it completely closed the short positions in four major assets: BTC, LIT, TON, VVV, leaving only a portion of its short positions on HYPE, which is still being observed in a gradual unwinding process. Originally a whole row of positions betting against the market, now compressed to remaining bets on a single asset, this “convergence of positions” rhythm lays the groundwork for a future directional reversal.

Almost at the same stage of closing these short positions, Loracle also opened a distinctly styled set of leveraged longs: a 10x long in ZEC, a 5x long in ASTER, and a 5x long in TON, shifting the overall position from previously short-dominated to a configuration where long positions in multiple assets take precedence. Outsiders cannot directly read its true opinions from these addresses, but the shift from "systematic shorting" to "diversifying bets long across multiple tracks" at least shows that it has re-evaluated the market rhythm at this stage. Whether this re-evaluation leads to correction or increases risk can only be answered by subsequent price movements and on-chain records.

Whales and Retail Traders in the HyperLiquid Ecosystem’s Frenzy

The rising popularity of the HyperLiquid ecosystem has condensed all emotions around this one token, HYPE. Recently, the drastic volatility surrounding HYPE and multiple scenarios of short sellers being squeezed out have been reported successively by various media, bringing both long and short traders into the spotlight. Under this rhythm, an address accumulating more than 36 million USD in losses on HYPE was first marked by Onchain Lens as Loracle, after which Chinese media, including BlockBeats, continued to follow up, elevating it from an "on-chain address" to a "well-known short seller" in the public discourse.

When this "well-known short seller" was confirmed by on-chain data to begin closing shorts in BTC, LIT, TON, VVV, and then to retain only part of its HYPE shorts and switch to leveraged longs in ZEC, ASTER, and TON, observers saw not just a strategic adjustment but a highly symbolic role reversal: a whale publicly swallowing huge losses and flipping to a long position in the same lane. Some retail traders may interpret this as "even the big players can be wrong," or "the authority of shorts is wavering," while others may be wary that this could lay the groundwork for a new narrative. Regardless of how the outside world interprets it, all of this is clearly documented on-chain - every transaction of opening positions, closing positions, and increasing leverage is archived in terms of addresses and timestamps, allowing for repeated reconstruction and scrutiny, ultimately letting “who speaks louder” yield to “who did what on-chain.”

Three Attempts to Investigate Bar None: Satoshi Remains a Mystery

In contrast to the reality where Loracle's address, leverage multiples, and liquidation trajectory are all indelibly inscribed on-chain, reignited on the same timeline is yet another round of "pursuing the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto." Since 2024, three repeatedly cited public works have appeared: an HBO documentary, a deep report in The New York Times, and a narrative film, each offering their answers, directing attention to four industry figures: Peter Todd, Adam Back, Len Sassaman, and Hal Finney. Some were identified singularly, while others were woven into broader conspiracy narratives, but when it comes to the most crucial link, the conclusions of the three clues are entirely consistent - none can self-verify at the level of cryptography or on-chain.

Bitcoin.com and other media simply summarized the current situation in one sentence: "3 investigations, 4 suspects, 0 evidence." The function of these works is more like providing an appendix to Bitcoin's history, generating new imaginative templates and talking points, rather than offering participants in the market verifiable operational clues relating to addresses, signatures, or funding paths. You cannot determine the true ownership of UTXOs based on which film appears "better," nor can you adjust position risk exposure based on this; in contrast, every time Loracle increases or decreases its positions, it can be reviewed via on-chain data. One side comprises thoroughly visible behaviors, while the other side presents an identity puzzle that remains unresolved, forming the most prominent pair of contrasts in today's crypto world.

Making Bets Between Certainty and Fog

The story of Loracle leaves the market not with a simple maxim of "never bet against smart money," but rather a verifiable on-chain sample: according to current data, this address has lost over 36 million USD on HYPE shorts, still holds about 1.518 million remaining shorts with a nominal value of approximately 105 million USD, and has also leveraged long positions in ZEC, ASTER, and TON. These are all publicly verifiable actions that can be traced back to each transaction but do not equate to a guide that is forever correct. In contrast, the HBO documentary, The New York Times report, and narrative film surrounding Satoshi brought forward the four names Peter Todd, Adam Back, Len Sassaman, and Hal Finney, yet delivered the answer of "3 investigations, 4 suspects, 0 evidence" on the levels of cryptography and on-chain, with high discussion volumes but unable to translate into any verifiable information advantage. At the point of May 31, 2026, what truly deserves ongoing scrutiny are three clear variables: whether the closing pace of Loracle's 1.518 million HYPE shorts will accelerate, whether its multi-asset long position will continue or even increase, and how the narrative surrounding Satoshi will reflect on the long-term story and valuation framework of Bitcoin under new rounds of media and film attention.

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