Currently, Bitcoin is still maintaining a range fluctuation structure. In the short term, the 6H, 8H, and 12H cycles are still in a bull phase, and the overall repair logic has not yet ended. The 1H and 2H cycles are in a neutral state, while the 4H cycle is gradually approaching a high point, but there has not yet been a clear signal of a peak.

From a structural perspective, the bulls still hold a certain degree of initiative, but the problem is that the momentum release is not sufficient. If the fund inflow over the weekend continues to be below expectations, then the upward space will still be significantly limited. What the current market lacks is not the position, but new funds that can drive breakthroughs.

However, we cannot be complacent about the Saturday market. In the past two weeks, the market has repeatedly proven that weekends are not necessarily calmer than weekdays. Due to the U.S. stock market being closed, traditional markets are unable to respond instantly to news, while news related to Trump and geopolitical issues often chooses to be released during this time window.

The most intense fluctuations in the past two weeks have occurred on Saturdays, even far exceeding normal trading days. In a low liquidity environment, any sudden news can be magnified infinitely, leading to rapid market surges or swift declines. Therefore, at this stage, one should not blindly be bullish nor easily be bearish; more importantly, it is crucial to pay attention to the feedback of funds and changes in momentum at key positions.

Overall, the market is still in a fluctuation and recovery phase, the bull cycle is not over, but what truly determines the direction is still the funds, not the cycle itself.
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