By Friday, the war between the United States and Iran had lasted for 90 days. During this period, the United States had indicated at least three times that a ceasefire agreement was close to being reached, but delays continued. According to information coming out today, insiders are suggesting that the complete ceasefire agreement is progressing close to being finalized. People within and outside the White House indicate that it is about 95% close. Of course, even at 99%, until there is a signature, there is still a possibility of unforeseen circumstances. Now, we are just waiting for the leaders of both sides to sign.

Moreover, the Iranian president has reiterated his recent assurances, stating that Iran does not seek to produce nuclear weapons, which implies that there may be new progress in the most troublesome uranium enrichment agreement between the United States and Iran. In fact, these developments are not of much interest to ordinary investors; the only thing everyone is looking forward to is when the Strait of Hormuz can be fully opened.

Because once it opens, it means that the United States can emerge from the current high inflation and recession expectations, allowing the Federal Reserve to refrain from resorting to interest rate hikes as a weapon. This would be quite good news for the still surging AI sector, and it would also be a shot in the arm for cryptocurrencies; right now, it is still the best opportunity to short WTI.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, although the recent price of $BTC has been unsatisfactory, many peers believe that Bitcoin is likely to return to the four or five range. However, BTC's movement is still tied to the United States’ macro, political, and economic situation; unless the U.S. continues to find itself in some trouble, after the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran conclude, it is very possible that BTC could experience a small rebound.

Of course, the key issue with BTC is still insufficient liquidity, and it does not have a strong narrative like AI. The gap compared to tech stocks is gradually widening, but BTC's greatest advantage is that more holders are transitioning into long-term holders, and there are more high-net-worth holders emerging.

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