The cryptocurrency market has currently evolved from a large box-like fluctuation to a clear downward trend. Compared to the previous quick rises and falls, known as "monkey jumping," the market now seems to have entered a typical "frog boiling in warm water" stage:

Downtrend → Consolidation → Small rebound → Further downtrend

This rhythm has persisted for nearly a month.

The greatest uncertainty in the current market still stems from the US-Iran situation. Both sides frequently shift their messages, occasionally releasing provocative statements that tug at market sentiment. In the short term, the expectation of interest rate cuts has become increasingly difficult to maintain as the liquidity environment remains tight until inflation and geopolitical risks show clear signs of easing.

More critically, the market is experiencing continuous "blood loss." Although it has repeatedly touched key support areas, the strength of each rebound has been noticeably weak, and there has been no significant capital inflow to speak of. This means the current issue is not "how much it drops," but rather "no one is willing to step in."

From a market structure perspective, the current decline is not a panic sell-off but rather a chronic depletion due to a continual outflow of funds. Such market conditions are often the most agonizing because they do not release emotions suddenly but instead erode market confidence and patience through prolonged fluctuations and subtle declines.

Overall, until there is a noticeable improvement in funding conditions, the market will continue to maintain a weak structure. What truly needs to be watched isn't a sudden crash but this seemingly calm yet persistently draining chronic downturn.

This article is published by [Huiying Community], reflecting only personal opinions. Due to the inherent delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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