This article is only a personal market opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Any operations based on this are at your own risk regarding profits and losses.

The article on May 18 mentioned two key support levels that might see a rebound—76,000 and 74,000—but "all rebounding opportunities are exit points," and at the end of the article, it noted that around the Xiaoman solar term is a time for trend changes, which has proven to be the case.

After the price reached a low below 76,000 on May 18, it randomly launched a slight rebound. On May 21 (Xiaoman), a price high was reached, and then on May 23, it dropped to around 74,000 before launching a continuous rebound over several days, but it did not surpass the high of May 21.

The market around 78,000 provided about a week of exit opportunities; I'm not sure if all the bullish partners took advantage of it. Based on the current trend, unless the price returns above 78,000, the market is dominated by bears.

Today, the price has again fallen below the 74,000 support, hitting a low around 72,600. Although the price is falling, the open interest in recent days has not decreased but rather shows a slight upward trend, which is generally a signal for trend continuation.

Eth is the same; the price is falling, but open interest is not, indicating that during the decline, new positions have offset some liquidations and may have slightly increased. This is still a signal for trend continuation.

The volatility of Eth has just started to rise, and the current volatility is still at a low level not seen for nearly a year and a half. Thus, patience is required to wait for the next spike in volatility before determining the bottom of the market.

The U.S.-Iran military friction has begun again, and until the strait truly stabilizes, there is little chance of market improvement. In the current U.S. and Chinese stock markets, only the technology sector is relatively strong, while everything else is a complete mess, with severe capital drainage. The chip sector in the A-shares accounts for nearly half of the total trading volume across all A-shares in a single day, showing excessive concentration, while all other sectors are in a state of being drained.

If the U.S. and Iran drag out the situation for another two weeks, the global market may once again fall into the all-market decline seen in late March. The difference is that during the last decline in March, the cryptocurrency space may have absorbed some black and gray funds fleeing the Middle East and received some support. However, if this time the conflict between the U.S. and Iran cannot be alleviated, and we experience another decline, there will not be much support for buying power.

Let's observe the situation, but below 78,000, if you are bullish, being conservative is not wrong.

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