From the perspective of a professional trader, the current market characteristics are very clear: a sharp drop followed by an oversold rebound, but the overall bearish trend remains unchanged, and the strength of the rebound is questionable.

Key Signal Interpretation

1. Trend Structure: Bearish Dominance, Moving Average Pressure

   • Although the price has experienced a sharp drop, it is still operating below all EMA moving averages.

   • EMA(5), EMA(10), EMA(20), and EMA(40) show a clear bearish arrangement, and the moving averages are diverging downwards. In particular, the EMA(20) and EMA(40) near 2080-2090 create a strong “cap pressure,” which means as long as the price cannot break through 2090 with volume, any rise should be seen as a rebound rather than a reversal.

2. MACD Indicator: Bottom Divergence Repair Underway

   • The price has made a new low of 2016.79, but the MACD’s fast and slow lines (DIF and DEA) did not make new lows, and the green bars (bearish momentum) are shortening, even nearing a turn to red.

   • This is a potential bottom divergence signal, indicating that the downward momentum is waning, and there is a high probability of a corrective rebound returning to the moving averages in the short term.

3. Trading Volume: Shrinking Volume Consolidation

   • After the sharp drop, trading volume (Volume) has clearly shrunk. This usually means selling pressure is temporarily reduced, but buying enthusiasm is also lacking, and the market is in a wait-and-see状态, waiting for direction choice.

Trading Strategy Suggestions

• Short-term Strategy (Speculative Rebound)

  • Entry Point: Near the current price of 2029 or when the price retraces to 2020 without breaking, attempt to go long with a light position.

  • Target Price: The first target for the rebound is at 2060-2080 (moving average pressure zone).

  • Stop Loss: Set below 2010 (previous low).

• Medium-term Strategy (Trend Following Short)

  • Key Signal: If the price rebounds to the vicinity of 2080-2090 and encounters resistance, and the MACD fails to cross above and turn red, it is an excellent shorting opportunity.

  • Action: Establish short positions around 2080-2090, setting a stop loss at 2100, with targets looking down to 2020 or even lower.

In summary: The momentum of the sharp drop is weakening, there is a demand for a short-term rebound, but the overall trend remains bearish, and a rebound to the vicinity of 2080-2090 is a good opportunity to short.

Scan the code to follow the public account and communicate with me for more real-time analyses and strategies for free.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。