The South Korean semiconductor supply chain has just revealed a significant piece of news, but domestic media have largely ignored it, raising my vigilance regarding the AI sector in the U.S. stock market to the highest level. 🧐

NVIDIA's next-generation product Rubin CPX has an uncertain future!

First, it should be noted that while Rubin CPX and Rubin GPU VR200 both belong to NVIDIA's Rubin architecture generation, they play different roles.

Rubin CPX is mainly responsible for inference, boasting extremely high throughput, making it very suitable for processing lengthy contexts; thus, it doesn't require the expensive HBM4, relying solely on GDDR7, which significantly reduces costs. Compared to the flagship Rubin GPU VR200, which focuses on training, the components such as memory chips, chip packaging, and the NVLink 6 interconnect solution are relatively cheaper, thus lowering costs considerably (as shown in Figure 2).

However, as AI development progresses significantly towards inference, this market segment is incredibly important. If NVIDIA's products for the inference market face delays, it could have a certain impact on NVIDIA's stock price!

Let’s discuss the insights from South Korean media regarding the supply chain; it’s quite interesting, especially since everyone in Korea is currently trading stocks enthusiastically, so it's no wonder not many people paid attention to this news today!

📌 Signals from the Supply Chain

• Industry insiders in the memory sector indicate: although Rubin CPX is supposed to be equipped with GDDR7, there are currently no orders in sight, and performance metrics are unclear, making it impossible to develop supporting solutions.

• People in the substrate industry are more direct: there is no news from Rubin CPX, and the industry generally believes that there hasn't been any substantial progress so far. The initially anticipated application scale of GDDR7 may also not be significant.

• The memory industry generally holds a wait-and-see attitude towards CPX, and the supply of GDDR7 is unlikely to initiate on a large scale. Currently, GDDR7 is mainly applied in gaming graphics cards like GeForce RTX 5090 and 5080, and even the super computing substrates will not use GDDR7 but rather higher-end HBM.

📌 Even stranger is NVIDIA's strategic adjustment

At the GTC 2026 conference in March this year, NVIDIA removed CPX from the second generation, which is quite intriguing.

Instead, NVIDIA began deep cooperation with Groq, even signing a limited agreement worth $20 billion last year, incorporating Groq's core inference technology and engineering team.

Industry experts generally believe that NVIDIA has actually started to implement Groq’s solutions. This means that NVIDIA may have undergone a significant strategic shift in the inference market. The Rubin CPX, originally prepared for the inference market, now faces an uncertain future.

Some of my personal thoughts: first, the supply chain is the most honest. When memory manufacturers and substrate manufacturers say there are no orders, it’s not a small issue. You must know that chip production needs the supply chain to start preparing six months to even a year in advance. It’s already the second half of the year; without any orders, can this product be released on time?

Next, what does NVIDIA’s current stock price reflect in terms of expectations? The market's valuation of NVIDIA is based on its absolute monopoly position in the AI computing market and its ability to continually launch revolutionary products. But now, with issues in the Rubin CPX product line, while the Blackwell series and the future Vera Rubin series are powerful, the next generation of products must keep up; otherwise, these expectations may waver.

Finally, in today’s AI sector, FOMO sentiment is quite severe, with a continuous short squeeze, a large amount of short covering, but fund positions are already very crowded. This persistent upward trend still requires caution and attention to the market's subtle movements! 🧐

At the same time, this large cake of the inference market will also be beneficial for #AMD and #INTC. 🧐

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