The US and Iran are approaching a peace agreement! What’s next?

We can see that today’s US stock futures are strong, and the Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened high:

Currently, it feels more like a “phase one ceasefire/navigation agreement is taking shape,” not “comprehensive peace between the US and Iran has been established.”

However, the market is now trading on the expectation of “decreasing tail risks of war + gradual recovery of the Strait of Hormuz,”

so the stock market, cryptocurrency sphere, and Asian markets will rise first, while crude oil will fall first.

But this situation has not yet reached a level where one can mindlessly risk-on.

Three scenario forecasts

1️⃣ Announcement of a phased agreement, probability about 55%–65%.

This would drive oil prices to continue to retrace, the stock market and crypto sphere to maintain a risk-on attitude, especially benefiting Asian markets. Brent may test the $90–95 range, and WTI may test $85–90; however, unless shipping volumes recover quickly, it's hard for oil prices to immediately return to pre-war lows.

2️⃣ Continuing to pull but not breaking the deadlock, probability about 25%–30%.

This is the most torturous path for the market: every day there are headlines of “close to reaching an agreement” and “not close at all,” oil prices fluctuate significantly, the stock market peaks then reverses, and the crypto sphere also experiences false breakthroughs/falls.

In this scenario, the most important thing in trading is not to chase headlines; we need to see if Brent/WTI can sustain a downward trend and whether actual shipping data shows improvement.

3️⃣ Negotiations collapse or military misjudgment escalates, probability about 10%–15%.

If the US military and Iran have significant conflicts over naval, missile, or shipping passage issues, or if Israel escalates targets related to Lebanon/Iran, oil prices will rebound quickly, and the stock market and crypto sphere will give back gains.

Reuters has reported that US forces are still conducting so-called defensive strikes against targets in southern Iran during the ceasefire, which indicates that this risk is real, not a theoretical risk.

We cannot predict, but we can observe three things:

First, whether the formal text is released; second, whether daily shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returns from dozens of vessels to near pre-war levels; third, whether insurance rates, shipping companies, tankers, and LNG ships are willing to resume normal schedules.

On market signals, I will watch if Brent can stabilize below $95 and if WTI can stabilize below $90. If oil prices break below and do not rebound, it indicates the market believes in the recovery of shipping; if oil prices quickly return above $100 for Brent, it suggests traders do not trust the agreement.

Regarding the stock market, if energy stocks continue to be weak, while airlines/semiconductors/Asian export stocks continue to be strong, that is a typical peace trade; if energy stocks suddenly rebound while the dollar and gold rise together, that means the market is repricing risk.

Be especially cautious with crypto; currently during this volatility, high leverage is most easily harvested repeatedly by such geopolitical news.

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