On May 26, 2026, the market was rapidly ignited by unrealized expectations of peace. Reports from Washington indicated that the U.S. and Iran were "close to reaching an agreement" on extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Although there was no formal text or signing timetable, it was enough for traders to bet that this crucial passage for global energy and shipping might soon transition from a high-risk corridor back to a hub of flow. Almost simultaneously, Trump made a public appearance and, with rare bluntness, negotiated a highly sensitive issue—Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium. He declared that this enriched uranium would be "immediately handed over to the U.S. for destruction, or processed on-site under international supervision," and repeatedly emphasized that "Iran will never have nuclear weapons." In interpretations by media such as Axios, this was seen as a demonstration of strength domestically while also acknowledging that the U.S. was willing to consider Iran's prior preference for "on-site processing with international oversight" regarding the disposal of the stockpile. The agreement was not yet formalized, and Iran had not publicly stated acceptance, but the futures market had already answered: according to a single source, Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 1%, Dow and S&P 500 futures rose about 0.7%, while the South Korea KOSPI index broke 8000 points with an intra-day gain of over 3%, and the Nikkei 225 index also opened slightly higher, all attributed to the market's "risk-on" bet on peace between the U.S. and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, in the conference rooms of funds in Beijing and Shanghai, risk appetite manifested in another way—according to a single source, the Chinese AI company Moon's Dark Side completed about $2 billion in financing in May, with a post-investment valuation exceeding $20 billion, seen as one of the most iconic financings in the domestic large model track so far. Funds, driven by the dual impetus of geopolitical easing expectations and tech narratives, poured into high-risk assets, painting a picture of an optimistic yet still fragile global warming of risk appetite.

The Negotiation on Enriched Uranium Disposal: A Key Bargaining Chip of Peace Dividend

Among various technical terms, what can truly change security expectations is the fate of those several hundred kilograms of highly enriched uranium. The two plans proposed by the U.S.—either transferring Iran's enriched uranium for destruction in the U.S. or destroying it within Iran under international supervision—are essentially ways to "defuse" this stockpile: the former completely shifts the physical risk out of the Middle East, while the latter neutralizes nuclear materials within an auditable, traceable framework while retaining the symbolism of Iranian sovereignty. On May 26, 2026, Trump publicly emphasized that Iran's enriched uranium would be disposed of and reiterated that Iran "will never have nuclear weapons." Accompanying this, Axios cited sources indicating that the U.S. stance on the enriched uranium stockpile had softened, no longer insisting on a single plan but accepting a design closer to Iran's prior assertions. For the market, this means the probability curve for "tail risks" of nuclear conflict is being shifted left, making extreme scenarios less likely and providing a narrative basis for asset prices' "peace premium."

However, this key bargaining chip remains suspended in the center of negotiations. So far, there has been no public information indicating that Iran has explicitly accepted or rejected the aforementioned disposal plans. The negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain merely at the description of being "close to agreement," with no publicly available final agreement text or clear signing timetable. Capital has already given an answer: from index futures to tech financing, what is being traded is a vision of a future world where "once the disposal of enriched uranium is settled, nuclear risks significantly decrease," rather than an already effective peace agreement. In other words, the current warm risk appetite is pricing in this yet-to-materialize bargaining chip, rather than celebrating a long-term peace that has already been secured.

KOSPI Surges to 8000 Points: Asian Stock Markets Cheer Early

After the news that the U.S. and Iran were "close to reaching" an extension of the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the numbers on the screen responded first. According to a single source, U.S. Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 1%, while Dow and S&P 500 futures increased by about 0.7%; the anticipation of "peace dividends" quickly spread among global stock index futures. However, the true driver pushing this risk-on sentiment to new heights was the Asian stock markets, which are highly sensitive to external variables due to time zone advantages—South Korea's KOSPI index first broke the 8000-point mark, with intra-day gains exceeding 3%, making it one of the day's most impressive major indices, almost pricing in the expectation of the "reopening of Hormuz" as a regional celebration.

In stark contrast to KOSPI's strong leap, the Japanese stock market's response seemed more restrained. Reports indicated that the Nikkei 225 index opened only about 0.23% higher, at 65305.16 points, reflecting a warming of risk appetite but lacking the exuberance of KOSPI. Horizontally, the gains in U.S. stock futures were relatively moderate; as the trading day progressed, relevant reports indicated that their upward momentum and the gains of some indices began to narrow, with short-term funds opting to reduce positions or stay on the sidelines after realizing initial profits. The market transitioned from chasing the imagination of "an imminent agreement" back to the reality check of "details are yet to take shape." In this wave of risk-on led by KOSPI, Asian stock markets initially applauded the easing expectations between the U.S. and Iran, but the price pullback reminded everyone that what is currently being traded is merely the possibility of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, not a definitive new security order.

Funds Pouring into Large Models: Moon's Dark Side Secures $2 Billion

While the secondary market raised prices on the expectation of the "reopening of the Strait of Hormuz," the story in the primary market is entirely different: In May 2026, China's AI venture capital scene described the flow of funds with the "Matthew effect" intensifying—money is almost solely flowing into leading large models. According to a single source, Moon's Dark Side completed a new round of financing of about $2 billion this month, with a post-investment valuation exceeding $20 billion, marking its largest single financing since its inception and considered one of the highest amounts of private equity financing for domestic large model startups to date. Compared to the immediate rise of U.S. stock futures and KOSPI driven by news, this funding feels more like a long-term bet on the next decade, rather than a short-term vote on the day's news.

On the surface, overseas stock indices are rising due to the proximity of the U.S. and Iran to extending the ceasefire and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while China's leading AI companies secure massive financing in the same time window, pointing to the same thing: the global risk appetite is heating up. However, the driving logic is entirely different—index futures trade on the revaluation of oil prices and risk premiums brought about by geopolitical easing, while primary market investors are betting real money on whether computing power, algorithms, and data can realize growth in the next industrial cycle. Unlike publicly traded indices, data on large private placements is often disclosed by the companies and investors, with the details and valuation anchors heavily reliant on the credibility of the single source of information, which complicates external judgments on this round of "valuation leap." When funds are highly concentrated in a few large models, any reversal in macro liquidity or industry expectations could similarly amplify valuation corrections and exit pressures; at the moment when the U.S.-Iran agreement remains at "close to reaching," this concentrated bet itself serves as the best footnote to whether this round of risk appetite is overly tilted.

The Agreement is Not Yet Finalized: A Fragile Foundation for Optimistic Sentiment

Shifting perspective back from the primary market to geopolitical considerations, the gaps in the story are equally striking: As of May 26, 2026, the U.S. and Iran have remained at "close to reaching" an agreement; the U.S. has issued strong statements regarding the disposal of enriched uranium and that "Iran will never have nuclear weapons," but Tehran has yet to provide a formally verified response to the specific proposals. The public sees only the U.S. version regarding the extension of the ceasefire and how to transfer or destroy enriched uranium on-site. More critically, there is no publicly confirmed timetable regarding under what conditions the Strait of Hormuz will reopen or when it will reopen. The market is currently trading only on the expectation of a "potential reopening," not on a written commitment. This is also why, after an initial surge, the gains of U.S. stock futures and some indices began to narrow—prices quickly digested the headline-level good news but were forced to return to a calculation of "just how much can this be realized" in the absence of hard information on terms and timing. This round of risk-on feels more like a collective bet on the future rather than a pricing of the current state of affairs.

In this structure of incomplete information, the market itself has become a mirror of the negotiations: If negotiations stall next and the ceasefire extension is repeatedly delayed, or if expectations of the reopening of Hormuz significantly cool, the optimistic premiums risk assets gained today could be reversed with equal leverage at any time. If oil price expectations rise again, it will squeeze the tolerance for equity valuations, with high-beta indices, sectors highly correlated with energy, and high-volatility assets including crypto assets potentially experiencing a reflexive chain of "first, kill the valuation, then ask why"; conversely, even without an immediate signing of the final agreement, as long as clear signals can continue to be released regarding the details of the terms and scheduling, the market may gradually correct "expectation" into "reality" in a back-and-forth process. For investors, the single-day trend on May 26 is more of an emotional stress test than a firm anchor sufficient to support long-term allocations. What truly determines how far this round of risk appetite can go is not today's increase, but whether concrete written progress can be made in the negotiations over the next few weeks that can withstand repeated scrutiny.

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