This time I really feel it is almost there. Iran has started to say that normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz will resume 30 days after the agreement is reached, and these 30 days will be used to clear mines. Trump has publicly stated that negotiations with Iran are going very smoothly. As I have said before, we cannot only look at one side's statements; both sides need to announce simultaneously for it to count, and this time it really seems to be almost there.
Today, the price of WTI fell directly by 7.5%, and so far it has dropped below 90 dollars, as expected. Next, we are still looking at the first stage of 85 dollars. If it reaches 85 dollars, it should indicate that the US and Iran have a clear ceasefire agreement. If it goes lower, it may require the complete smoothness of the Strait of Hormuz.
My personal view is that if the agreement is fully signed, there is a high chance of a strong short-selling wave, similar to what happened last Saturday. At that time, the funding rate may be very high, but it should not last too long. For those sensitive to funding rates, you can short through a broker. If the funding rate is not high, or if you can continue to hold on, then shorting CLUSDT is also possible, after all, you can add some leverage.
My liquidation price is still set above 120 dollars, just adding more margin to prevent some black swan events. Once the matter between the US and Iran is over, inflation expectations will fall, which will give Wash more room to maneuver. Trump cannot wait.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, just as I have always said, the price of $BTC depends on the current US macro, political, and economic conditions. The market currently expects that the conflict between the US and Iran can be completely resolved and anticipates a decrease in US inflation. So even though the US stock market is not open today, it is clear that the CME stock index futures are rising, driving Bitcoin upward.
The most important thing is that from various data, investors have long-term expectations for BTC and have reduced short-term turnover. So as long as there are no significant negative factors for the US and no obvious negative factors for BTC, the stability of the price is still guaranteed.
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