- Bitcoin (BTC): 77103, 24 hours +0.45%, intraday high 77514, low 75374
- Ethereum (ETH): 2102, 24 hours -0.9%, intraday high 2131, low 2062
- Global cryptocurrency market cap: 265 trillion, 24 hours basically flat, total trading volume 67.7 billion
- Fear and Greed Index: 25 (extreme fear), further decline compared to yesterday
- BTC market dominance: 58.3%, ETH market dominance: 9.57%

Summary of Major News

1. U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance strengthened: Fed Governor Waller stated that the chances of future rate hikes and cuts are "50-50," and the market has fully digested the expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike before December, with the probability of zero rate cuts this year rising to 66.9%
2. U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions: Iran refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz recently, Trump cancels trip to stay in the White House, and the market is worried about escalation of military conflict, shifting funds to traditional safe-haven assets
3. Continuous outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF: More than $2 billion net outflow accumulated in the past two weeks, with approximately $1.3 billion net outflow over four consecutive trading days since May 14, and intensified selling by U.S. institutional investors
4. Bearish on-chain data: CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin's "apparent demand" has dropped to the most bearish level since the beginning of this year (-147,000 BTC), and Coinbase premium has fallen to a monthly low of -0.0983%
5. Liquidation data: Approximately $737 million liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, with 110,580 traders being liquidated, including $428 million in long liquidations and $308 million in short liquidations
6. Regulatory dynamics: The U.S. CLARITY Act legislative process continues to advance, aiming for completion of signing by July 4; Brazil will prohibit stablecoins for cross-border settlements starting October 1

II. Market Impact Analysis

1. Macroeconomic liquidity tightening: Expectations for Fed rate hikes reignited, U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, putting pressure on risk assets, with cryptocurrencies as high-risk assets being particularly affected
2. Institutional funds retreat: Continuous outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs indicates institutional investors are reducing risk exposure, and a market lacking institutional buying support struggles to achieve sustained upward trends
3. Market sentiment extremely pessimistic: The Fear and Greed Index is in the "extreme fear" range, reflecting a significant lack of investor confidence and strong wait-and-see sentiment
4. Altcoins perform weaker: In the overall downward trend of the market, a decrease in risk appetite has led to altcoins generally falling more than mainstream coins, with DOT leading the decline at 3.6% today and some smaller coins dropping over 50%
5. Leveraged funds clearing: Bitcoin's open contracts decreased by about $1.5 billion this week, virtually clearing most of the leveraged positions accumulated during the price approach of $82,000, with some market risk being released

III. Contract Trading Strategy

Bitcoin (BTC) Contract Strategy

Overall Idea: Short-term volatility biased towards bearish, primarily short on rebounds
- Key resistance levels:
- First resistance: 77600 (near intraday high)
- Second resistance: 78060 (previous high, strong resistance)
- Key support levels:
- First support: 76040 (short-term bullish defense level)
- Second support: 75130 (strong support level, breaking indicates trend reversal to bearish)
- Trading suggestions:
- Short positions should be set in the 77400-77800 range on rebounds
- Stop-loss: 78600 (invalidated if previous high is broken)
- Targets: First target 76000, second target 75100

ETH
- Key resistance levels:
- First resistance: 2130 (4-hour Bollinger middle track)
- Second resistance: 2160 (MA30 pressure)
- Key support levels:
- First support: 2075 (near intraday low)
- Second support: 2050 (previous low, strong support)
- Trading suggestions:
- Short positions should be set in the $2120-$2140 range on rebounds
- Stop-loss: 2180 (invalidated if recent high is broken)
- Targets: First target 2090, second target 2050
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