Brothers, there have been new changes in the market these past few days.
First, let's talk about the news from the US and Iran indicating that an agreement is about to be reached. A decrease in geopolitical risk is generally a good thing, but the market moving like this is really frustrating. Bitcoin (BTC) is stuck at $77,199, not moving up or down, with a nearly $500 fluctuation in the past 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) is lethargically hovering around $2,106.
Looking at the data, today OKX has a long-short ratio of 1.30, Binance 1.157, and retail investors are desperately going long. But what about the main players? In the last 24 hours, BTC large holders sold 955 million, while they only bought 753 million, resulting in a net outflow of nearly 200 million. What does this indicate? Retail investors are bottom-fishing, while the main players are quietly unloading.
To be honest, this kind of market is the most tortuous. Stuck in a sideways trend, afraid to buy the dip in case it continues to drop, but also hesitant to chase the longs out of fear of getting trapped.
But it is especially important to stay calm during such times. Speaking of the US-Iran situation, it sounds a bit surreal. Just a couple of days ago, the market was worried about whether there would be a conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices would skyrocket. Suddenly, overnight, a draft agreement was produced. A complete ceasefire, lifting sanctions, and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump even saying "it's basically agreed."
But brothers, don’t celebrate too early. There are still major disagreements at the negotiating table. The Iranian side claims that the US is "retreating" on asset unfreezing and the ceasefire issue, while Israel is understandably furious, saying how the Americans are pulling this again.
There is also a key issue: the agreement might be signed, but what about implementation?
Once Iran's $7.7 billion in frozen assets is unfrozen, will it lead to a market crash or will they continue to hold? These are all uncertainties.
My judgment is: in the short term, the market could go in two directions.
First, if the agreement is officially signed, positive sentiment could turn negative because the bulls have already set themselves up waiting to unload.
Second, if negotiations collapse at the last minute, the geopolitical risk could rise again, and Bitcoin might drop directly to $75,000 to seek support.
So what to do now? I think the safest operation is to first manage your position well and keep enough ammo.
To put it bluntly, when the market is fluctuating, instead of watching anxiously, it’s better to do something profitable. For example, taking advantage of platform promotions. Bybit currently has substantial benefits for new users. New users can receive a free $100 registration experience bonus just for signing up, and completing tasks can unlock up to $30,000 in deposit bonuses + VIP upgrades. Meanwhile, the P2P 10 billion subsidy continues, with the first deposit starting from 10 USDT, giving you a chance to win vouchers worth up to 99 USDT, and the first order can enjoy up to a 99% discount.
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Finally, let's remember a couple of key levels to watch going forward: whether Bitcoin can stabilize above $77,000 relates to its short-term direction, resistance above is at $78,000 (where EMA30 is pressuring), and support below at $76,000. If it drops below $75,000, we really need to be cautious. Ethereum is a bit weaker, with the $2,100 level being fiercely contested, and I am not optimistic about its ability to strengthen independently in the short term.
In summary, manage your positions well, don’t chase highs, and avoid all-in bets. Staying alive is more important than anything.
Join our community, let’s discuss, and become stronger together!
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Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital assets and TradFi trading carry high risks; please participate rationally according to your own situation and ensure proper risk control. Platform activities are subject to Bybit's official rules, and all details of activities are based on official announcements.
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