All major events have basically concluded, and a new round of market trends is about to begin; coinciding with Trump's visit to China, Walsh taking office, and the peace declaration between the US and Iran, Lao Cui also perfectly avoided this critical historical juncture. Have you all managed to exit your short positions as you wished? Our previous forecast of shorting at the 80,000 mark with a target of 5,000 points is almost consistent. How should we respond to this new round of market trends? First, interpret the outcomes of the visit to China, which have no substantial landing measures, more of a testing phase. From a timeline perspective, the significance of the visit to China is merely to test the risks of a ceasefire; if both sides reach an agreement, this will solidify the US-Iran ceasefire as a fact. After the ceasefire, it is undoubtedly a favorable aspect for traditional finance, but from a substantial judgment perspective, the market share for Bitcoin is actually declining. Those who hold a strong mentality for the return of a bull market need to adjust, as it does not necessarily lead to the growth of Bitcoin.

Walsh's strategic judgments will directly impact the trajectory of the cryptocurrency market. As oil prices stabilize with the end of the warfare, will this lead to a return to inflationary policy values? This question will directly affect the number of interest rate cuts this year. Do not pay attention to interest rate hike warnings; just look at the number of rate cuts. It is impossible to raise rates this year. So when will the rate cut occur? Keep an eye on international oil prices; once oil prices drop, it will create space for rate cuts. As long as oil prices remain robust, discussions about rate cuts will not arise. Lao Cui himself estimates that a rate cut will occur between September and December; within this range, there will always be room for price negotiations between the US and Iran, which means cryptocurrency prices will fluctuate with this competition. Of course, this does not change the fact that Bitcoin's price is on a volatile upward trend, with higher peaks becoming increasingly higher, and there will be no returns to lower levels, except for spike phenomena.

Recently, due to personal reasons, updates have slowed, and I have also signed contracts with some new publishing platforms, shifting focus somewhat. If you have specific short-term guidance, please ask Lao Cui directly. Article updates will gradually return to normal. There won't be much discussion on trends; in the short term, if you want to operate contracts, it seems that the depth of the pullback has already reached our previous estimate of at least above 5,000 points. As long as no major explosive events occur, there won’t be too much volatility. Walsh's ascendance has indeed weakened the positioning in the cryptocurrency sphere. Meanwhile, the tokenization strategy of US stocks has fundamentally changed, leading many listed companies to alter their strategic core reserves. You can check it yourself; many companies have changed their terms about never selling. With the short-term arrival of the World Cup, capital withdrawal will be quite evident, so try not to be overly bullish. The 82,800 high may become the new high for the past two months, and today’s entry price can be viewed as a short. Keep profits within 500-1,000 points. There’s no need to worry about spot trading; just watch for growth around the end of the year. If you have questions, remember to ask Lao Cui directly.

Original creation WeChat public account: On-Chain Science For assistance, please contact directly.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。