The current emotions are a bit complicated. I'm happy that my intuition was correct; the U.S. and Iran are indeed entangled again. I closed all my short positions at the low point of WTI, but it's frustrating that the back-and-forth between the U.S. and Iran has caused the market to become fatigued, especially since the price of WTI has gone through three significant ups and downs since the temporary ceasefire on April 7. The market feels like a headless fly being led by the so-called "negotiations."
However, from a trend perspective, both the market and WTI itself have a clear confidence in the "peace talks." It's merely a matter of time. Although there have already been two failed attempts, the price of WTI has been on a downward channel since the temporary ceasefire, and these two failed negotiations have pushed the WTI price down a bit, which is what the market expects to see.
Monday is a holiday in the U.S., and the stock market will be closed, so there may be some continued easing on Monday. However, the CME will open on Monday, which may lead to some volatility in oil prices. When the market closed on Friday, the price of WTI was nearly $97, so the market may reassess this price.
Returning to Bitcoin data, although many friends are not concerned, I still want to say that the current price of $BTC is still closely related to U.S. politics, economics, and macro factors. On days when the U.S. stock market is closed, these three data points are the best price guides for Bitcoin, and the thinking should not be simply bullish when it's rising and bearish when it's falling; instead, the focus should be on this information.
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