About the topic I discussed with a few friends offline yesterday:

The market ultimately rewards not the one who can express judgments the best, but the one who can continuously approach the truth the most.

The closer one is to the real world, the better one understands and respects the rules; one will know that the world does not operate around one's own emotions, positions, and desires. The market has its own rules, human nature has its own inertia, cycles have their own rhythms, and assets have their own structures.

Because of the understanding of the laws governing the world, one will naturally stumble less and find business opportunities more easily. This is not because one is smarter, but because one conflicts less with reality.

However, the most frightening thing is that we humans often unconsciously replace judgment with opinions when acting. This process is likely to save mental effort, as the brain will always follow the simplest way to function to conserve output.

Yet, our opinions are mixed with emotions, positions, and experiences. Sometimes you think you are making decisions, but in reality, you are simply following the brain's map without any real thought.

This is why many people cannot escape their destiny; just like Zhuge Liang knew the trend of the Three Kingdoms before he left his hut, it is because he understood these people's characters inside out. Yuan Shao's fate was destined to be this way, and Guan Yu would let Cao Cao go at Huairong Path; these are not gambles, but Zhuge Liang knew that they would make such decisions. This is their destiny.

Judgment and decision-making definitely require a system and predictive logic; if you have this, you are also Zhuge Liang.

So the question is, how can we continuously shorten the distance between judgment and reality in an uncertain world?

This may be the most crucial homework we need to continuously do,

and AI is the best auxiliary judgment tool of this era.

This is how I do it: in the past, it was difficult for us to do this; now I can build a dedicated prediction system and judgment logic document with GPT, recording and inquiring about anything that happens, and letting GPT analyze my mental state and the next developments, effectively creating a calm judgment ledger for myself.

I suggest that you keep a judgment ledger with AI, recording 8 items for major decisions:

1️⃣ Judgment Question: Must be testable

2️⃣ Deadline

3️⃣ Your Initial Probability

4️⃣ Reference Basis

5️⃣ Internal Perspective Adjustment Reasons

6️⃣ What signals will lead you to raise the probability

7️⃣ What signals will lead you to lower the probability

8️⃣ Final Outcome and Review

Over time, you will definitely be able to update your old map and gradually get closer to the real world.

Life needs calibration; learn until old and live until old!

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