Many things happened today, the main point is that Waller has officially been elected as the Federal Reserve Chair. Although both he and Trump are saying to maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve, how it will play out can already be seen in the June meeting and the dot plot. Saying anything now doesn’t mean much; when it comes time for the meeting, it will be the handover between the new and old Fed officials. I estimate Trump will also be sweating; will Waller be obedient or not?

The U.S. and Iran are still a current side mission, but this side mission deeply affects the main mission. Today, WTI briefly fell below $95, mainly because the market heard messages about a potential reconciliation between the U.S. and Iran. However, as I said, don’t just look at the U.S. and don’t just look at Iran; look at the joint statements from both sides, just like that temporary ceasefire. If there isn't a joint statement, don't believe it at all.

Sure enough, just when market expectations were optimistic, Iran jumped out to say that it is still very early to reach an agreement. As a result, WTI's price directly rose by two dollars. However, from various signs, it does seem possible to reach a preliminary reconciliation before June, at least to ensure the smoothness of the Strait of Hormuz; getting WTI down to below $90 would be about right.

I have been mentioning shorting WTI for a long time; before, I didn’t dare to hold on because the funding rate was too high. Now the funding rate on Binance's CLUSDT has decreased a lot, and this week's funding rate can be neglected, so the holding cost has reduced significantly. My first target remains $90, but I think if it reaches $90, the downside will accelerate; let’s first watch $90.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the price is still in a slight oscillating trend, and it still has a connection with the U.S. stock market. However, $BTC is obviously more prominently affected by macro factors, as any minor disturbance can drive short-term investors away. But from the data, whether it's spot ETFs or native investors, they have performed very well without any tension, and the turnover rate remains consistently low.

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