Today's market is actually quite clear. The main reason for the rise is the trend that the United States and Iran are indicating they can reach an agreement. But to be honest, this optimism is coming from the US, and I have not seen related content in Iranian media. So it's possible that it’s just a unilateral announcement of victory by the US or Trump, while Iran is completely uncooperative.

Although US stocks have driven Bitcoin up, and indeed WTI and Brent have shown a downward trend, I have not seen any information from Iran about the release in the Strait of Hormuz. On the contrary, Iran is still specifying its own regulations for managing the Strait of Hormuz, which makes it hard for me to feel happy in advance, after all, this kind of repeated occurrence is too frequent.

Of course, there aren't any better methods at this point. As of now, I have started to realize profit from shorting WTI, and the liquidation price has remained above $120. The funding rate is also not high now, so I can hold on for two more days to see. Moreover, I still believe that even if we can't achieve smooth passage through the Strait of Hormuz right now, it won't take too long.

The minutes from the Federal Reserve's April meeting released today also illustrate this issue. Many Federal Reserve officials are starting to consider re-evaluating interest rate hikes if inflation continues to rise, which presents the biggest challenge for Trump. Once Waller came in, he didn’t even mention anything about rate cuts. It is impossible to cut rates when oil prices are this high, unless Trump can completely resolve the Hormuz issue.

Moreover, the inflation rise triggered by the Strait of Hormuz is not only affecting the US; most countries around the world are impacted, including China. Therefore, the pressure on Iran will be all-encompassing, and the longer time drags on, the more unfavorable it will be for Iran.

Looking back at the Bitcoin data, I have always insisted that more investors are turning to long-term holdings. Currently, the price of $BTC is mainly determined by short-term investors, and the factors influencing short-term investors' decisions are the US's macroeconomic, political, and economic conditions. Although today's meeting minutes are not good, as long as we can see talks between the US and Iran and see smooth passage through the Strait of Hormuz, these issues are not a problem.

#Bitget has arrived, making you VIP! Crypto, US stocks, CFD, a one-stop layout for global opportunities

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。