On May 20, 2026, Trump's public statement that "the US-Iran negotiations have entered the 'final phase,' stay tuned" instantly transformed the originally stable macro environment into a geopolitical trade: the yield on US 2-year Treasury bonds quickly dropped by about 7.8 basis points to about 4.045%, and the 10-year yield also fell by 8-10 basis points, landing in the range of 4.56%-4.59%. The signal of "interest rates going down and duration being forced to reprice" was very clear; meanwhile, the three major US stock indices continued to rise after the news, with all showing an overall increase of more than 1% in a single day, as risk asset sentiment was pushed upwards by a shot of adrenaline; during the same trading period, European natural gas prices fell by nearly 8% at one point (according to a single source), as the geopolitical premium and inflation expectations were preemptively eased by the market. All of this did not stem from a formal agreement or policy document, but was a typical "rhetoric-driven" macro shock: a single statement triggered a simultaneous adjustment of the interest rate curve, stock market risk appetite, and energy risk premiums. After such a sharp repricing, an unavoidable question arises—when the bond and stock markets have already given a directional vote on this rhetoric, will the bulls in crypto assets like BTC and ETH regard this interest rate drop and energy cooling as the starting point for a new round of entry.

Treasury yields plummet: Crypto discount rates rewritten

In this "rhetoric-driven" repricing, the first to respond was the interest rate curve. After the announcement, the yield on US 2-year Treasury bonds fell by about 7.8 basis points to about 4.045% in a single day, and the 10-year yield also dropped by about 8-10 basis points, landing in the range of 4.56%-4.59%. This level of intraday decline is no longer technical noise; the market is rewriting the "risk-free rate" with real money. The decline in yields corresponds to an increase in bond prices, and coupled with the subsequent overall rise of more than 1% in the three major US stock indices, the combination of "bonds rise, stocks rise" indicates that participants interpreted Trump's statement as: the worst scenarios for the Middle East situation and energy supply have been temporarily pushed away, inflation and risk premium pressures have slightly receded, and the "safety margin" at the long-term interest rate end has been proactively lowered by the market.

For BTC and ETH, the downward shift in this interest rate curve lowers their overall discount rate. The lower the long-term risk-free rate, the more it favors raising the valuations of long-duration assets—whether it’s growth stocks like those in the Nasdaq with highly uncertain forward earnings or crypto assets viewed as "options on liquidity and optimistic expectations for technology," both belong to the typical high-beta category. Historical experience has repeatedly validated that the correlation between BTC/ETH and US growth stocks is particularly significant during phases of large interest rate fluctuations: each acute decline in the 10-year yield will force portfolios to reconsider "should I extend duration and add a bit more risk?" At the same time, the changes in interest rate expectations penetrate through more hidden channels into on-chain position structures—if the market starts to bet that the future central tendency of US dollar interest rates will decline slightly, the opportunity cost of dollar funds decreases, the psychological threshold for leveraged financing drops, and transactions betting on BTC/ETH using borrowed dollars will appear less "luxurious" in risk budgets. This will make bulls more willing to extend holding periods, raise target return requirements, and more actively attempt to use leverage to catch dips when prices pull back.

War premium cools: The pros and cons of easing energy prices for the crypto world

When the market understands the phrase "negotiations entering the final phase" as a potential easing of the Middle East situation, the "war premium" pressed onto energy assets begins to ease. During the same trading period, European natural gas prices fell by nearly 8% at one point (according to a single source), indicating that capital is using real money to signal that the extreme scenario of supply disruption doesn't seem so imminent in the short term, and the portion of risk premium previously piled on to hedge against Middle Eastern risks is being withdrawn. Energy constitutes a core weight in the inflation basket, and a pullback of this level in natural gas prices will directly lower energy inflation expectations for the next few quarters, indirectly pushing down market pricing for the central bank to maintain "higher rates for longer"—this, along with the simultaneous decline in US Treasury yields after the news, forms a top-down logical chain: geopolitical tensions ease → energy risk premiums retreat → inflation path is revised downwards → monetary policy tightening expectations ease → high-beta asset valuation discount rates decrease, improving the pricing environment for BTC/ETH.

However, a softening of energy prices does not solely benefit the crypto world. From the cost side, Bitcoin mining is a high-energy consumption industry; as electricity prices drop each level, miners face less marginal cost pressure, reducing cash expenditures required to produce the same amount of BTC. Miners are less willing to sell off during price fluctuations, and the short-term selling pressure on the supply side will be mitigated, providing a healthier clearing pace for the spot market. From a narrative perspective, the drop in energy and commodity prices reduces inflation expectations and also weakens the urgency of "digital assets as a safe haven in a high-inflation era": when investors are no longer driven by the fear of inflation, the premium for BTC as a hedge against "fiat currency purchasing power dilution" may be partially squeezed out, and valuations will rely more on growth and risk appetite rather than just inflation narratives. Adding to Javier Blas's reminder—that Trump is very adept at using rhetoric to manipulate the oil market, and the current easing expectations also need to be discounted—means that the crypto world is currently enjoying a short-term tailwind of "cost decrease + discount rate decline," but this tailwind itself is tied to highly reversible political statements, and any reversal of negotiation expectations could rapidly turn the current benefits into a pressure test for BTC/ETH through a resurgence of energy prices and inflation expectations.

Wall Street risk appetite warms up: Will funds flow into BTC/ETH?

After Trump's statement that "negotiations have entered the final phase," the three major US stock indices surged, each rising by over 1%, and the US Treasury yield declined in tandem, forming a typical "geopolitical easing + interest rate decline" scenario of risk appetite recovery. For Wall Street, the trading sequence is very clear: the overall downward shift in the interest rate curve, growth expectations being repriced, with the first beneficiaries being the assets with the best liquidity and longest duration—high-beta technology stocks, growth stocks, and the credit assets tied to them, then followed by crypto assets that have one foot over the regulatory red line. Past experiences show that traditional financial institutions’ exposure to crypto often closely follows their positions in high-beta tech stocks and growth stocks. When risk appetites reopen and tech stocks leverage up, crypto may gradually see its weight increased on the asset allocation table.

From the crypto market perspective, to assess whether this wave of "interest rate decline + energy risk easing" can be captured by BTC/ETH, there are several key indicators to watch in the coming days: first, the BTC/ETH spread; if ETH strengthens relative to BTC while US stocks rebound, it often indicates that funds are actively chasing higher beta; second, the futures basis and funding rates; if the basis widens and funding rates turn from negative to positive, it suggests that new leverage is coming in rather than existing longs passively following the rise; third, on-chain US dollar capital inflows; only when we see substantial dollar capital entering mainstream asset pools through over-the-counter channels can we say that this round of Wall Street sentiment recovery has truly completed its transmission to on-chain. These indicators will tell us whether Wall Street's risk appetite recovery driven by geopolitical easing has genuinely flowed onto the chain.

Can a single statement change the trend? Trump's credibility and reflexivity

Javier Blas's reminder brings the current wave of "rhetoric-driven" trading back to reality: Trump's mention of the "final phase" should be marked with a discount of "highly reserved" in its information pricing. On one hand, he has previously made similar optimistic or hardline statements on topics like war, which have not always materialized; on the other hand, the long-standing standoff between the US and Iran, coupled with his prior direct withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement and implementation of maximum pressure, makes this statement feel more like a continuation of his consistent "transactional diplomacy" style—rewriting expectations with a single statement and waiting to see the response from both the opponent and the market, rather than presenting an executable timetable for the agreement itself.

The problem is that the market has already quoted real money for this statement: the interest rate curve has shifted downward, energy risk premiums have compressed, and US stocks along with high-beta assets have risen. If the negotiations do not progress as expected or even reverse, the next step often leads to a round of "retracement-style repricing"—bond yields rebound, energy prices rise, stock markets correct, and high-risk assets come under pressure simultaneously. For BTC and ETH, the impact of this path is not only directional but also structural: the previously leveraged longs due to interest rate declines and risk appetite recovery will be forced to deleverage when expectations fail, pushing futures basis and funding rates from positive to negative, causing price declines and forced liquidations. From a reflexivity perspective, this wave itself is a part of the negotiations—markets preemptively bet on agreements, driving down financing costs and lifting risk assets, which objectively changes the negotiation chips for both the US and Iran, and in turn amplifies the volatility of the outcomes; for the crypto market, this resembles a highly reflexive trade swayed by Trump's statements rather than a trend market where one can comfortably lie back and win.

From rhetoric to trading: Three multiple-choice questions for the crypto market ahead

Returning to the market ignited by the statement "negotiations entering the final phase, stay tuned," the three underlying factors being reshaped are: first, a general downward shift in the interest rate curve—yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds have simultaneously fallen by about 8 basis points, temporarily lowering the discount rate for high-duration assets like BTC and ETH; second, an easing of energy risk premiums—the European natural gas price fell nearly 8% at one point, coupled with the imagination of easing the Middle Eastern situation, relieving pressure on miner costs and the potential resurgence of inflation; third, a warming of risk appetite—the three major US stock indices rose by over 1%, reigniting the Beta premium for high-beta assets. The combined result enhances the redistribution of on-chain dollars along the risk curve: if interest rates continue to decline, energy remains moderate, and risk assets strengthen, the incremental funds flowing into BTC/ETH spot and futures will be more willing to extend duration and raise leverage multiples, keeping futures basis and funding rates conditionally stable in the "comfortably warm" range; if interest rates rebound while energy prices rise but risk appetite does not immediately crack, funds may withdraw from high-leverage contracts, shifting to shorter duration and more liquid on-chain dollar positions, placing BTC/ETH in a high-volatility, low net leverage situation; the worst-case scenario is a reversal in the narrative of negotiations, with both interest rates and energy risk premiums rising simultaneously, and stock market sentiment retreating—under this "factor resonance," BTC/ETH will face both an increase in discount rates and experience outflows and a spiral of forced liquidations in on-chain dollars. Going forward, what truly needs to be focused on in trading and risk control is not what Trump's next statement will be, but the direction of the US Treasury yield curve, the risk premiums for oil and natural gas, the rhythm of news flow from the Middle East, and the correlations between BTC/ETH and US stocks, futures basis, and net inflows of on-chain dollars, and which combinations these factor paths will actually fall into in reality.

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