I will also educate my friends:

1. In early 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued Document No. 136 (Development Reform Price [2025] No. 136), which clearly stated: configuring energy storage shall not be a prerequisite for the approval, grid connection, and access to the grid for new wind and photovoltaic projects.

Many new energy storage configurations are at a 10%-20% installed capacity ratio and a 2-hour duration. For example, a 1 million kilowatt photovoltaic power station, if configured with 10% and 2 hours of energy storage, essentially represents 100,000 kilowatts / 200,000 kilowatt-hours. It can discharge at 100,000 kilowatts for 2 hours, but it cannot allow the 1 million kilowatt power station to stably generate for several hours at night, let alone adjust across days or seasons.

2. Currently, the eastern regions (such as East China) still rely on the western regions for power supply during peak times; it is not universally "unused." In the future, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, after significant increases in offshore wind power and nuclear power in the east, there may be local surpluses, but data from 2026 still show that the eastern peak remains tight. Cross-regional trading set records in 2025, and the east is more about buying electricity rather than large-scale selling.

3. The issue in Sichuan is actually the risk of "wasted electricity." During the abundant water period, there is an excess, and local absorption is limited, necessitating external dispatch (such as electricity from Sichuan to the east). This also corroborates the local challenge of "producing but not being able to use."

It is true that Sichuan has high hydropower installed capacity, and the data is even higher than what you mentioned. By December 2025, Sichuan's hydropower installed capacity has exceeded 100 million kilowatts, accounting for about one-fourth of the national hydropower installed capacity, making it the first province in the country to surpass 100 million kilowatts of hydropower installed capacity.

However, the biggest issue with hydropower is not the installed capacity but the water supply. Sichuan was the most typical example in 2022. That year, Sichuan faced extreme high temperatures and droughts, with average precipitation 51% less than the same period in previous years, and the main rivers saw a water inflow reduction of 20% to 50%, directly leading to a decline in hydropower generation capacity. Sichuan does not lack hydropower installed capacity, but the high temperatures and high loads combined with low water levels lead to "having units but unable to generate.”

Therefore, the issue in Sichuan is not "insufficient hydropower installed capacity," but rather the possibility of wasted water during the abundant water period and potential electricity shortages during the dry period. While external dispatch is high during normal times, extreme weather causes local stress. This is called a structural contradiction, not a total lack of electricity.

This is something that former $BTC mining folks should already know.

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