Bitcoin's purchasing power has cooled and significantly decreased; will the next step be $60,000 or $40,000??
After Bitcoin failed to stabilize at $82,000 and once fell below $76,000, many friends are very pessimistic about the market outlook, with some predicting $60,000 this month and $40,000 in the second half of the year. If viewed strictly from the data perspective, it is indeed true that the amount of funds has seen a significant withdrawal compared to the previous week.
Of course, although it is a withdrawal, it merely indicates a substantial decrease in purchasing power compared to the previous week; however, it is still in a net buying state and has not entered a comprehensive selling stage. This shows that investors have doubts about the future market trend and are unwilling to maintain high levels of buying funds.
What is the reason for this situation? Is it just because it couldn't stabilize at $82,000? At least I personally do not think so.
From the data on the amount of funds, it is clearly visible that this drop was mainly caused by panic selling from investors due to the geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Even when the price of $BTC was about to fall below $60,000, the selling had not completely ended.
The reversal was due to the U.S. and Iran starting to ceasefire; investors believed the market would turn around, and indeed the U.S. stock market saw a significant increase during this period, with both the S&P and Nasdaq breaking their historical highs. This led some investors to speculate that Bitcoin still has room for growth, which is the main reason.
When the U.S. and Iran continued to be in a stalemate and both CPI and PPI were rising, inflation expectations increased, and interest rate cut expectations decreased, the U.S. stock market started to decline. Therefore, it is very normal for Bitcoin to drop and for investors to slow down their buying; I believe this matter is not essentially related to whether BTC has stabilized at $82,000.
If tomorrow it suddenly comes out that the U.S. and Iran have reached a complete ceasefire agreement and Iran has opened the Strait of Hormuz, then I believe there is a high probability that both the U.S. stock market and $BTC will rebound.
So I am not against the possibility that Bitcoin may have downward space; rather, I question what is causing the downturn and whether it will necessarily continue to drop like this. Of course, if the U.S. and Iran continue to maintain antagonism and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, it indeed might trigger a chain reaction in the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin.
However, from my current viewpoint, both the U.S. and Iran are unwilling to return to a state of firing; the hardline stance of the U.S. and Iran does not necessarily mean they truly want to resume fighting, but rather that it serves more as a bargaining chip for negotiation.
Therefore, I think unless there is a renewed escalation of war leading to an increase in inflation or the U.S. faces more severe economic or political issues, the probability of a significant drop in the short term is not high.
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