Recently, the trend in the prediction market has begun to change. After facing a series of setbacks, many entrepreneurs believe that instead of creating independent markets, it might be better to join Polymarket or Kalshi for content distribution, or to target niche markets specific to these two platforms.

From my personal understanding, although I can't say that this direction is wrong, the potential ceiling for this approach remains very limited. Refining the niche can indeed help attract users' attention more effectively. Even if external traffic is introduced, compliance issues are resolved, and deposit and withdrawal problems are addressed, if the conversion rate still does not improve, it will still be difficult to achieve profitability.

It’s like a hotel that is lavishly decorated, has all the necessary certifications, employs Michelin-star chefs, buys the largest volume of advertisements globally every day, provides customer service in eight languages, and accepts payments in sixteen currencies, yet very few people are able to sit down and dine in the restaurant each day.

This is the current predicament. This predicament is not due to compliance, not due to payment issues, not due to publicity, nor is it about racial issues, but rather the appeal to users.

Promoting an annualized return of 20% in a casino can indeed attract some people, but how many can it attract compared to those coming to gamble? The profitability of prediction markets does not provide a lifeline for cryptocurrency users in dire straits; most winning projects only offer a certain level of annualized returns.

Prediction markets are indeed a form of gambling, but recommending them to gamblers is a very mistaken perception.

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