It has been over 75 days, right? I believe even Trump did not expect the geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran to last this long, and he is probably regretting it tremendously now. However, since the situation has occurred, it needs to be resolved quickly. Although Vance mentioned today that negotiations with Iran have made some progress, the market no longer believes in the story of "the wolf is coming." The current market just needs to watch the oil prices; if oil prices do not come down, it indicates that inflation cannot be alleviated.
Looking at the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Navy has intensified its blockade of Iranian ports, and today it expelled some vessels attempting to approach Iran. This is a significant blow to Iran's shadow fleet. Therefore, while neither side is willing to escalate attacks, they are both gripping each other's throats, just waiting to see who runs out of breath first. But the Strait of Hormuz is not just about oil; it also involves grain and fertilizers.
So the longer time goes on, the more unfavorable it is for Iran. For their own interests, Europe and Asia may advise Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. The reasoning is indeed understood, but it is hard to know how long Iran can withstand this pressure. The last IEA report stated until the end of May, and there are still 10 days left; hopefully, a resolution can be achieved.
Returning to Bitcoin data, as U.S. stocks decline, $BTC is indeed fluctuating downward, but it can be clearly felt that the degree of Bitcoin's decline is beginning to slow down. This is mainly because short-term trading investors are decreasing, and more investors prefer to hold for the long term. Additionally, most investors are aware that the current decline is caused by the U.S.-Iran game, and once the war ends, the likelihood of a rebound will be very high.
Therefore, there are no signs of large numbers of investors selling. Daily trading turnover is not intense, and investors are temporarily maintaining a rational attitude.
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